Wallet analysis

2026-06-15T14:49:03+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.5
score
1F 0x1f08…6f2a world 15 markets active 1h ago coverage 482d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL −$7 (-3%) realized −$7 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt +4% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -6% what you keep after slip
Net edge-6%after slip
Net WR7%break-even
Win rate33%5W / 10L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$19per market
Trades / day0.1pace
Kalshi-fit67%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$0
7 days−$2
14 days−$2
30 days−$2
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 92% −$2
other 4% $0
sports 4% −$8
weather 1% +$3
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +7%
net ROI/market (all)-5.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 7 -0.8% -10.2% 0% 0% -10.1%
≤30d 7 -0.8% -10.2% 0% 0% -10.1%
≤90d 7 -0.8% -10.2% 0% 0% -10.1%
all 15 +4.3% -5.7% 33% 7% -11.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.1 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -5.7% 7% -11.8%
10% -14.7% 7% -20.2%
15% -22.9% 7% -27.9%
20% -30.5% 7% -35.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 96% · top 2 98% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -1% too few recent
Fragile wins
80% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +4% · $-wt -2% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +11% → late -2% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$1 · ×0.45 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.32 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

482d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$7
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)33%
Wins / losses5 / 10
Open positions0
Markets (closed)15 / 15
History coverage482d
Avg bet$19
Trades / day0.1
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit67%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 15 Trades
no open positions
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? Jun 15 $36 $0 +0%
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 14 $37 $0 +0%
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by Jun 14 $77 $0 -0%
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? Jun 13 $35 $0 -0%
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Jun 12 $35 −$1 -3%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? Jun 12 $18 $0 -2%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 10 $16 $0 +0%
Will the Seattle Seahawks win Super Bowl 2026? Dec 16 $2 $0 -9%
Will Benfica win the FIFA Club World Cup? Dec 10 $1 $0 +2%
Will the Arizona Diamondbacks win the 2025 World Series? Dec 10 $2 $0 +4%
Will the Denver Nuggets win the 2025 NBA Finals? May 21 $1 $0 +1%
Will Elon tweet 200–224 times May 2–9? May 09 $1 $0 +1%
Will the Winnipeg Jets win the 2025 Stanley Cup? Mar 26 $5 $0 -0%
Will the highest temperature in NYC be between 29-30°F on February 20? Mar 03 $2 +$3 +170%
SIU-Edwardsville vs. Morehead State Mar 03 $8 −$8 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? SELL No 93¢ $36 1h
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? BUY No 93¢ $36 1h
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 70¢ $37 20h
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 70¢ $37 20h
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by SELL No 92¢ $10 26h
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by BUY No 93¢ $10 28h
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? SELL Yes $1 41h
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? BUY Yes $1 44h
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? SELL No 97¢ $2 47h
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? SELL No 97¢ $32 47h
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? BUY No 97¢ $34 2d
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by SELL No 96¢ $8 2d
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by SELL No 96¢ $26 2d
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by BUY No 96¢ $34 2d
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by SELL No 96¢ $34 2d
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by BUY No 96¢ $34 2d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL No 87¢ $26 2d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL No 87¢ $8 2d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY No 89¢ $35 2d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? SELL Yes 45¢ $18 3d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? BUY Yes 46¢ $18 3d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra SELL No 42¢ $16 5d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra BUY No 42¢ $16 5d
Will the Seattle Seahawks win Super Bowl 2026? SELL No 90¢ $1 180d
Will Benfica win the FIFA Club World Cup? BUY No 98¢ $1 353d
Will the Seattle Seahawks win Super Bowl 2026? BUY No 99¢ $2 375d
Will Elon tweet 200–224 times May 2–9? BUY No 99¢ $1 403d
Will the Denver Nuggets win the 2025 NBA Finals? BUY No 99¢ $1 417d
Will the Arizona Diamondbacks win the 2025 World Series? BUY No 96¢ $2 431d
Will the Winnipeg Jets win the 2025 Stanley Cup? SELL No 89¢ $5 445d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 39 history records