Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T20:16:38+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
1F 0x1f09…5529 world 34 markets active 2h ago coverage 469d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL +$8 (+1%) realized +$8 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -3% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -12% what you keep after slip
Net edge-12%after slip
Net WR6%break-even
Win rate56%18W / 14L
Drawdown23%max
Avg bet$20per market
Trades / day0.2pace
Kalshi-fit74%portable
Net worth$55now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$1
7 days+$6
14 days+$7
30 days+$7
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 74% +$7
other 18% −$1
finance 3% $0
politics 2% $0
crypto 2% +$1
sports 0% $0
economics 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +6%
net ROI/market (all)-12.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 5 +1.6% -8.1% 60% 20% -5.1%
≤30d 17 -4.7% -13.8% 41% 6% -8.0%
≤90d 17 -4.7% -13.8% 41% 6% -8.0%
all 32 -2.9% -12.1% 56% 6% -8.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.2 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -12.1% 6% -8.3%
10% -20.5% 6% -17.1%
15% -28.2% 3% -25.1%
20% -35.2% 3% -32.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 45% · top 2 55% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +2% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
89% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -3% · $-wt +1% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -3% → late -3% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$1 · ×1.32 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×2.64 per $1 lost it wins $2.64
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

469d coverage
Net worth$55
Realized+$8
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)56%
Wins / losses18 / 14
Open positions2
Markets (closed)32 / 34
History coverage469d
Avg bet$20
Trades / day0.2
Drawdown23%
Kalshi-fit74%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 32 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? No 95¢ 95¢ $54 $54 −$0 (-0%)
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? Yes 17¢ 14¢ $0 $0 −$0 (-15%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 1 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by October 31, 2026? Jun 17 $49 +$1 +2%
Netanyahu out by June 30? Jun 14 $21 $0 +0%
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? Jun 14 $4 −$1 -31%
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by Jun 13 $40 +$1 +3%
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Jun 12 $16 +$6 +34%
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30? Jun 11 $7 $0 +0%
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by July 31, 2026? Jun 10 $18 $0 +0%
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia Jun 10 $43 $0 -0%
Israel closes its airspace by June 9? Jun 09 $45 $0 -1%
Iran Nuke before 2027? Jun 09 $42 $0 +1%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 30? Jun 08 $40 $0 +0%
Will Alberta join the US? Jun 07 $2 $0 -7%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? Jun 07 $49 $0 +0%
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? Jun 07 $30 +$1 +4%
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? Jun 06 $18 +$1 +4%
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by June 30? Jun 06 $47 $0 +0%
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? Jun 05 $3 −$1 -30%
Will Andrew Cuomo win the 2025 NYC mayoral election? Dec 14 $1 $0 +5%
Fed decreases interest rates by 50+ bps after June 2025 meeting? Jun 19 $2 $0 +1%
Will Lewis Hamilton win the 2025 Canadian GP pole? Jun 16 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the Minnesota Timberwolves win the 2025 NBA Finals? May 31 $1 $0 +1%
Will the LA Clippers win the 2025 NBA Finals? May 06 $1 $0 +4%
Will the Detroit Pistons win the Eastern Conference? May 06 $2 $0 +1%
Will Ethereum reach $2600 in April? May 06 $0 $0 -100%
Will Strategy purchase Bitcoin Feb Mar 11-17? Mar 18 $1 +$1 +173%
Will Trump issue an executive order on March 16? Mar 17 $14 $0 +1%
Will 'Novocaine' gross between 9-11m on opening weekend? Mar 16 $15 −$1 -5%
Will Elon tweet 625-649 times March 14-21? Mar 16 $29 $0 -0%
China wins the most gold medals in 2025 Special Olympics? Mar 16 $28 +$1 +2%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $87000 and $89000 on Mar 14? Mar 15 $15 $0 +2%
Will egg prices be between $5.25 and $5.50 in February? Mar 13 $14 $0 +1%
Zelenskyy puts on a suit by Friday? Mar 11 $14 $0 +1%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 95¢ $54 1h
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by October 31, 2026? SELL No 66¢ $50 23h
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by October 31, 2026? BUY No 65¢ $49 27h
Netanyahu out by June 30? SELL No 99¢ $21 4d
Netanyahu out by June 30? BUY No 99¢ $21 4d
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? SELL Yes 3¢ $2 4d
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? SELL Yes 3¢ $1 4d
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? BUY Yes 4¢ $4 4d
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by SELL No 93¢ $41 4d
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by BUY No 90¢ $39 5d
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by BUY No 90¢ $1 5d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? SELL Yes 17¢ $14 5d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? SELL Yes 17¢ $1 5d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? BUY Yes 17¢ $16 5d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes 16¢ $10 6d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes 16¢ $6 6d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes 16¢ $6 6d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 12¢ $16 6d
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30? SELL No 90¢ $7 7d
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30? BUY No 90¢ $7 7d
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by July 31, 2026? SELL Yes 19¢ $2 8d
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by July 31, 2026? SELL Yes 19¢ $11 8d
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by July 31, 2026? SELL Yes 19¢ $5 8d
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by July 31, 2026? BUY Yes 19¢ $18 8d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia SELL Yes 55¢ $4 8d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia SELL Yes 55¢ $39 8d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia BUY Yes 55¢ $4 8d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia BUY Yes 55¢ $19 8d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia BUY Yes 55¢ $14 8d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia BUY Yes 55¢ $6 8d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $55.20 · official $54.35 (match) · 102 history records