Wallet analysis

2026-06-20T11:45:13+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
1F 0x1f0a…daa1 world 43 markets active 2h ago coverage 393d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge
✗ profits on perfect fills only — loses on real✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL +$8 (+1%) realized +$8 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +12% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +1% what you keep after slip
Net edge+1%after slip
Net WR7%break-even
Win rate46%19W / 22L
Drawdown21%max
Avg bet$24per market
Trades / day0.4pace
Kalshi-fit63%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$1
7 days−$1
14 days−$1
30 days−$0
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 46% +$8
other 32% $0
politics 9% $0
tech 5% $0
crypto 3% $0
sports 3% $0
economics 3% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
trap: profits on perfect fill only, loses on real
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +7%
net ROI/market (all)+1.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 3 -0.3% -9.8% 33% 0% -9.8%
≤30d 11 +0.2% -9.4% 45% 0% -9.6%
≤90d 14 +0.1% -9.4% 36% 0% -9.6%
all 41 +12.0% +1.3% 46% 7% -8.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.4 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to5%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +1.3% 7% -8.8%
10% -8.4% 5% -17.5%
15% -17.2% 2% -25.5%
20% -25.3% 2% -32.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 64% · top 2 72% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
84% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +12% · $-wt +1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +2% → late +22% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.4 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$0 · ×1.4 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×2.66 per $1 lost it wins $2.66
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

393d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$8
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)46%
Wins / losses19 / 22
Open positions2
Markets (closed)41 / 43
History coverage393d
Avg bet$24
Trades / day0.4
Drawdown21%
Kalshi-fit63%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 41 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
US strike on Cuba by December 31? No 52¢ 50¢ $0 $0 −$0 (-5%)
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by June 30? Yes 5¢ 4¢ $0 $0 −$0 (-15%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? Jun 20 $59 −$1 -1%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026? Jun 18 $58 $0 +0%
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 17 $30 $0 +0%
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? May 26 $64 −$1 -2%
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia May 26 $31 $0 +0%
Will Trump agree to Iranian enrichment of uranium by May 31? May 25 $34 $0 +0%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? May 25 $13 $0 +3%
Iran closes its airspace by May 31? May 24 $9 $0 -2%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026? May 23 $30 +$1 +3%
Iran leadership change by June 30? May 23 $29 $0 +1%
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? May 23 $29 $0 +0%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by May 31, 2026? May 20 $29 $0 +0%
Will Alberta join the US? May 19 $1 $0 +0%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? May 18 $28 $0 +0%
Will Ousmane Dembele win the 2025 Ballon d'Or? Dec 14 $5 $0 +5%
Will India invade Pakistan before July? Jun 26 $5 $0 +2%
Will reconciliation bill be passed by June 30? Jun 23 $33 $0 -2%
Will Juventus win the FIFA Club World Cup? Jun 20 $12 $0 -1%
Will Iran declare war on Israel by Friday? Jun 20 $23 $0 +2%
Will SER win the most seats in the Chamber of Deputies following the 2 Jun 20 $12 $0 +0%
Israel strike on Iran on June 19? Jun 20 $2 +$8 +453%
Will Robert Negoiță be the next Mayor of Bucharest? Jun 19 $1 $0 +17%
Will the Tampa Bay Rays win the 2025 World Series? Jun 19 $26 $0 +0%
Will the Atlanta Braves win the 2025 National League Championship? Jun 18 $24 $0 +2%
Will Shigeru Ishiba be the first leader out in 2025? Jun 17 $2 $0 +24%
Will the San Francisco Giants win the 2025 World Series? Jun 17 $23 $0 -1%
Will Elon tweet 130–144 times June 13–20? Jun 16 $4 $0 +9%
Will the St. Louis Cardinals win the 2025 National League Championship Jun 16 $5 −$1 -24%
Will Elon tweet 225–249 times June 6–13? Jun 13 $22 $0 +0%
Will R win the most seats in the next Norwegian parliamentary election Jun 11 $27 $0 +0%
Will Alibaba have the top AI model on December 31? Jun 10 $27 $0 +0%
Will Trump announce Larry Kudlow as next Fed Chair? Jun 10 $27 $0 -0%
Will Lewis Hamilton finish second in the 2025 Drivers Championship? Jun 08 $27 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin reach $150K in June? Jun 08 $27 $0 -0%
Will Vlad Voiculescu be the next Mayor of Bucharest? Jun 04 $27 $0 +0%
Will PMF or Die build a $1m business in 90 days? Jun 03 $29 $0 +1%
Will Bitcoin dip to $90k in May? Jun 02 $2 $0 +4%
Will UCR win the most seats in the Chamber of Deputies following the 2 May 31 $29 $0 +0%
Will Karol Nawrocki win by over 8%? May 30 $29 $0 +0%
Will Anthony Edwards Win the 2025 NBA Finals MVP? May 26 $29 $0 -1%
Will Bobby Kotick buy TikTok? May 25 $29 $0 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? SELL No 51¢ $29 1h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? BUY No 53¢ $30 5h
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by June 30? SELL Yes 5¢ $4 11h
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by June 30? BUY Yes 5¢ $5 11h
US strike on Cuba by December 31? SELL No 51¢ $33 20h
US strike on Cuba by December 31? BUY No 52¢ $33 20h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? SELL Yes 53¢ $21 30h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? SELL Yes 53¢ $9 30h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? BUY Yes 52¢ $12 32h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? BUY Yes 52¢ $8 32h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? BUY Yes 52¢ $9 32h
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026? SELL No 97¢ $29 37h
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026? BUY No 97¢ $29 39h
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026? SELL No 97¢ $29 41h
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026? BUY No 97¢ $29 44h
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 96¢ $24 2d
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 96¢ $6 2d
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 96¢ $30 2d
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? SELL No 68¢ $7 24d
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? SELL No 68¢ $22 24d
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? BUY No 71¢ $31 24d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia SELL Yes 58¢ $19 25d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia SELL Yes 58¢ $12 25d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia BUY Yes 58¢ $26 25d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia BUY Yes 58¢ $5 25d
Will Trump agree to Iranian enrichment of uranium by May 31? SELL No 96¢ $34 25d
Will Trump agree to Iranian enrichment of uranium by May 31? BUY No 96¢ $34 25d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? SELL Yes 40¢ $14 26d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? BUY Yes 39¢ $13 26d
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? SELL No 53¢ $18 26d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.36 · official $0.13 (match) · 150 history records