Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T05:40:03+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
1F 0x1f0c…4305 other 29 markets active 0h ago coverage 424d
TRAPdo not copy ⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL +$0 (+0%) realized +$0 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -3% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -12% what you keep after slip
Net edge-12%after slip
Net WR3%break-even
Win rate38%11W / 18L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$29per market
Trades / day0.2pace
Kalshi-fit69%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$1
7 days+$1
14 days+$1
30 days+$1
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 52% −$1
world 27% +$1
politics 11% −$2
crypto 6% $0
culture 3% +$2
sports 1% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +3%
net ROI/market (all)-12.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 2 +1.5% -8.2% 50% 0% -7.0%
≤30d 8 +0.4% -9.1% 38% 0% -9.2%
≤90d 8 +0.4% -9.1% 38% 0% -9.2%
all 29 -2.8% -12.1% 38% 3% -9.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.2 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -12.1% 3% -9.5%
10% -20.5% 0% -18.2%
15% -28.2% 0% -26.1%
20% -35.2% 0% -33.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 70% · top 2 86% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
91% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -3% · $-wt +0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -4% → late -1% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.4 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$0 · ×0.97 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.07 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

424d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$0
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)38%
Wins / losses11 / 18
Open positions0
Markets (closed)29 / 29
History coverage424d
Avg bet$29
Trades / day0.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit69%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 29 Trades
no open positions
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 Jun 18 $25 +$1 +3%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026? Jun 17 $3 $0 +0%
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? Jun 07 $66 $0 +0%
Will the U.S. invade Cuba in 2026? Jun 06 $35 $0 +0%
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? Jun 05 $6 $0 +0%
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? Jun 04 $31 $0 +0%
Putin out as President of Russia by June 30? Jun 03 $32 $0 +0%
Iran leadership change by June 30? Jun 03 $31 $0 +0%
Will Elon Musk post 360-379 tweets from March 10 to March 17, 2026? Mar 15 $196 $0 +0%
Jock Landale: Points O/U 13.5 Mar 15 $4 $0 +0%
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from March 13 to March 20, 2026? Mar 15 $2 −$1 -25%
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from March 13 to March 20, 2026? Mar 15 $179 $0 -0%
Will Trần Thanh Mẫn be the next President of Vietnam? Mar 14 $20 −$1 -5%
Will Hamnet win Best Picture at the 98th Academy Awards? Mar 14 $10 −$1 -12%
Will Wagner Moura win Best Actor at the 98th Academy Awards? Mar 14 $18 +$3 +18%
Will the Detroit Tigers win the 2025 World Series? Dec 14 $18 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin reach $150K in June? Dec 14 $1 $0 +1%
Will the Toronto Blue Jays win the 2025 World Series? Dec 14 $16 $0 +1%
Will Tommy Paul win the 2025 French Open? Jun 04 $2 $0 +1%
Will the New Democratic Party win the Northwest Territories seat in th May 06 $2 −$1 -39%
Will CDU/CSU and AfD form the next German Government? Apr 29 $1 $0 -25%
Will the Liberal Party win the most seats in Ontario in the next Canad Apr 27 $35 $0 -0%
Will XRP reach $3.00 in April? Apr 26 $17 $0 +0%
Will Péter Erdő be the next pope? Apr 26 $16 $0 -0%
Will Ethereum dip to $1200 in April? Apr 25 $18 $0 +0%
Will Daniel Funeriu advance to the Romanian Presidential Election Runo Apr 24 $17 $0 +1%
Will Bitcoin reach $110k in April? Apr 23 $18 $0 -3%
Will Trump impose tariffs on France in the first 100 days? Apr 21 $18 $0 -0%
Will Susan Crawford win by 8-10%? Apr 20 $18 $0 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 SELL No 68¢ $26 5m
Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 BUY No 66¢ $25 1h
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes 4¢ $3 10h
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 4¢ $1 12h
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 4¢ $1 12h
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 4¢ $0 12h
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? SELL No 98¢ $14 10d
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? SELL No 98¢ $18 10d
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? BUY No 98¢ $31 10d
Will the U.S. invade Cuba in 2026? SELL No 79¢ $35 11d
Will the U.S. invade Cuba in 2026? BUY No 79¢ $35 11d
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? SELL Yes 6¢ $6 12d
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? BUY Yes 6¢ $6 12d
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? SELL No 98¢ $31 13d
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? BUY No 98¢ $31 13d
Putin out as President of Russia by June 30? SELL No 99¢ $32 14d
Putin out as President of Russia by June 30? BUY No 99¢ $7 14d
Putin out as President of Russia by June 30? BUY No 99¢ $25 14d
Iran leadership change by June 30? SELL No 96¢ $32 14d
Iran leadership change by June 30? BUY No 95¢ $31 14d
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? SELL No 98¢ $34 16d
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? BUY No 98¢ $34 16d
Will Elon Musk post 360-379 tweets from March 10 to March 17, 2026? SELL No 98¢ $196 94d
Will Elon Musk post 360-379 tweets from March 10 to March 17, 2026? BUY No 98¢ $196 94d
Jock Landale: Points O/U 13.5 SELL Yes 1¢ $2 94d
Jock Landale: Points O/U 13.5 SELL Yes 1¢ $2 94d
Jock Landale: Points O/U 13.5 SELL Yes 1¢ $1 94d
Jock Landale: Points O/U 13.5 BUY Yes 1¢ $4 94d
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from March 13 to March 20, 2026? SELL Yes 1¢ $2 94d
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from March 13 to March 20, 2026? BUY Yes 1¢ $2 94d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 86 history records