Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T18:24:36+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

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1F 0x1f0c…0f32 crypto 208 markets active 0h ago coverage 65d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL −$186 (-2%) realized −$140 · open −$46
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -26% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -38% what you keep after slip
Net edge-38%after slip
Net WR32%break-even
Win rate40%82W / 122L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$42per market
Trades / day10.6pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit97%portable
Net worth$94now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$369
7 days+$369
14 days−$172
30 days−$77
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 98% −$268
other 2% −$23
world 0% −$11
sports 0% −$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +32%
net ROI/market (all)-32.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 16 -11.3% -19.8% 50% 38% +6.7%
≤30d 94 -23.1% -30.4% 36% 30% -10.8%
≤90d 204 -25.8% -32.9% 40% 32% -13.0%
all 204 -25.8% -32.9% 40% 32% -13.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover10.6 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -32.9% 32% -13.0%
10% -39.3% 25% -21.3%
15% -45.2% 22% -28.9%
20% -50.6% 19% -35.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 15% · top 2 26% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -4% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
21% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -26% · $-wt -4% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -31% → late -21% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.8 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$25 vs −$19 · ×1.32 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.89 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

65d coverage
Net worth$94
Realized−$140
Unrealized−$46
Win rate (resolved)40%
Wins / losses82 / 122
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions4
Markets (closed)204 / 208
History coverage65d
Avg bet$42
Trades / day10.6
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit97%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 4 History 204 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? Yes 77¢ 60¢ $100 $79 −$21 (-21%)
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-17? Yes 18¢ 18¢ $10 $10 −$0 (-3%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2:20PM-2:25PM ET Up 51¢ 30¢ $10 $6 −$4 (-41%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2:15PM-2:20PM ET Down 31¢ 0¢ $20 $0 −$20 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 19 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2:10PM-2:15PM ET Jun 17 $52 −$50 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2:05PM-2:10PM ET Jun 17 $21 +$31 +149%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2:00PM-2:05PM ET Jun 17 $11 −$10 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 1:35PM-1:40PM ET Jun 17 $156 +$9 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 1:30PM-1:35PM ET Jun 17 $311 −$150 -48%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 1:25PM-1:30PM ET Jun 17 $571 +$163 +29%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 1:20PM-1:25PM ET Jun 17 $171 +$5 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 1:15PM-1:20PM ET Jun 17 $218 −$10 -5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 1:10PM-1:15PM ET Jun 17 $104 +$45 +43%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 1:05PM-1:10PM ET Jun 17 $538 +$301 +56%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 1:00PM-1:05PM ET Jun 17 $307 −$100 -32%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:55PM-1:00PM ET Jun 17 $205 −$100 -49%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:50PM-12:55PM ET Jun 17 $315 −$10 -3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:45PM-12:50PM ET Jun 17 $309 +$229 +74%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:40PM-12:45PM ET Jun 17 $11 −$10 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:35PM-12:40PM ET Jun 17 $187 +$25 +13%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 4:45AM-4:50AM ET Jun 10 $5 −$5 -100%
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 10 $5 $0 -4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 4:40AM-4:45AM ET Jun 10 $4 −$2 -48%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 4:35AM-4:40AM ET Jun 10 $2 +$1 +60%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 4:30AM-4:35AM ET Jun 10 $12 −$11 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 4:25AM-4:30AM ET Jun 10 $6 +$7 +107%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 4:20AM-4:25AM ET Jun 10 $48 −$31 -65%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 4:15AM-4:20AM ET Jun 10 $7 +$24 +332%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 4:10AM-4:15AM ET Jun 10 $2 $0 +2%
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 10 $10 −$1 -6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 11:20AM-11:25AM ET Jun 09 $17 −$16 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 11:15AM-11:20AM ET Jun 09 $32 −$30 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 10:55AM-11:00AM ET Jun 09 $31 +$18 +58%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 10:50AM-10:55AM ET Jun 09 $16 −$15 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 10:45AM-10:50AM ET Jun 09 $83 −$80 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 10:40AM-10:45AM ET Jun 09 $182 −$57 -32%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 10:35AM-10:40AM ET Jun 09 $112 −$15 -13%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 9:40AM-9:45AM ET Jun 09 $33 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 10:25AM-10:30AM ET Jun 09 $21 −$4 -18%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 10:05AM-10:10AM ET Jun 09 $111 −$7 -7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 9:35AM-9:40AM ET Jun 09 $81 −$31 -38%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 9:00AM-9:05AM ET Jun 09 $21 −$21 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 9:30AM-9:35AM ET Jun 09 $103 −$52 -51%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 9:15AM-9:20AM ET Jun 09 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 10:20AM-10:25AM ET Jun 09 $11 −$11 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 9:45AM-9:50AM ET Jun 09 $78 +$43 +54%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 10:30AM-10:35AM ET Jun 09 $144 +$22 +16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 10:10AM-10:15AM ET Jun 09 $16 −$2 -12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 10:00AM-10:05AM ET Jun 09 $93 +$21 +22%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 9:55AM-10:00AM ET Jun 09 $81 +$12 +14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 9:50AM-9:55AM ET Jun 09 $51 +$12 +24%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 9:25AM-9:30AM ET Jun 09 $68 +$75 +112%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 9:20AM-9:25AM ET Jun 09 $100 −$80 -80%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 8:55AM-9:00AM ET Jun 09 $31 +$67 +214%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2:20PM-2:25PM ET SELL Down 70¢ $14 0m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2:20PM-2:25PM ET BUY Up 51¢ $10 2m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2:20PM-2:25PM ET BUY Down 50¢ $10 2m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2:20PM-2:25PM ET SELL Down 72¢ $16 3m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2:20PM-2:25PM ET BUY Down 44¢ $10 4m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2:15PM-2:20PM ET BUY Down 36¢ $10 6m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2:15PM-2:20PM ET BUY Down 27¢ $11 8m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2:15PM-2:20PM ET SELL Up 80¢ $15 8m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2:15PM-2:20PM ET BUY Up 54¢ $10 9m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2:10PM-2:15PM ET BUY Up 42¢ $52 14m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2:05PM-2:10PM ET SELL Up 99¢ $14 14m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2:05PM-2:10PM ET BUY Up 73¢ $10 15m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2:05PM-2:10PM ET SELL Up 61¢ $38 16m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2:05PM-2:10PM ET BUY Up 16¢ $11 18m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2:00PM-2:05PM ET BUY Up 3¢ $11 22m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 1:35PM-1:40PM ET SELL Up 46¢ $165 48m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 1:35PM-1:40PM ET BUY Up 40¢ $156 48m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 1:30PM-1:35PM ET BUY Up 38¢ $157 51m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 1:30PM-1:35PM ET SELL Down 69¢ $175 52m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 1:30PM-1:35PM ET BUY Down 58¢ $154 53m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 1:25PM-1:30PM ET SELL Up 99¢ $285 53m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 1:25PM-1:30PM ET BUY Up 52¢ $155 55m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 1:25PM-1:30PM ET SELL Up 47¢ $153 56m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 1:25PM-1:30PM ET BUY Up 44¢ $156 56m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 1:25PM-1:30PM ET SELL Down 55¢ $143 57m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 1:25PM-1:30PM ET BUY Down 37¢ $104 58m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 1:25PM-1:30PM ET SELL Down 47¢ $152 58m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 1:25PM-1:30PM ET BUY Down 45¢ $156 58m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 1:20PM-1:25PM ET SELL Up 99¢ $153 59m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 1:20PM-1:25PM ET BUY Up 97¢ $150 59m
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $94.23 · official $93.97 (match) · 831 history records