Wallet analysis

2026-06-26T17:49:18+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.5
score
1F 0x1f0e…26af sports 91 markets active 2h ago coverage 721d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL +$264 (+6%) realized +$260 · open +$4
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +0% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -9% what you keep after slip
Net edge-9%after slip
Net WR36%break-even
Win rate36%30W / 54L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$48per market
Trades / day0.2pace
Fees−$10est.
Kalshi-fit63%portable
Net worth$389now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$108
7 days+$146
14 days+$96
30 days+$260
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 42% +$190
other 41% +$266
politics 14% −$135
crypto 2% +$20
tech 1% −$1
economics 0% −$16
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +36%
net ROI/market (all)-9.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 3 +169.4% +143.8% 100% 100% +99.3%
≤30d 12 +98.0% +79.1% 50% 50% +63.3%
≤90d 34 +0.9% -8.7% 26% 26% -24.2%
all 84 +0.3% -9.2% 36% 36% -2.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.2 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.2% 36% -2.1%
10% -17.9% 35% -11.5%
15% -25.9% 27% -20.1%
20% -33.1% 24% -27.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 13% · top 2 24% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -16% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +0% · $-wt +8% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -17% → late +17% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$62 vs −$28 · ×2.17 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.21 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

721d coverage
Net worth$389
Realized+$260
Unrealized+$4
Win rate (resolved)36%
Wins / losses30 / 54
Est. fees paid−$10
Open positions6
Markets (closed)84 / 91
History coverage721d
Avg bet$48
Trades / day0.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit63%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 6 History 84 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
2026 Balance of Power: D Senate, D House Yes 45¢ 42¢ $200 $189 −$11 (-6%)
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 12¢ 19¢ $50 $80 +$30 (+61%)
Will Spain win on 2026-06-26? Yes 58¢ 58¢ $50 $50 +$0 (+1%)
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 17¢ 14¢ $50 $40 −$10 (-20%)
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 5¢ 5¢ $20 $17 −$3 (-15%)
Will Norway vs. France end in a draw? Yes 21¢ 18¢ $15 $12 −$2 (-17%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 10 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-25? Jun 26 $10 +$30 +291%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-24? AND Will Brazil win on 2026-06-24? Jun 25 $51 +$78 +154%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $61 +$39 +64%
Will Australia win on 2026-06-19? Jun 19 $10 −$10 -98%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-18? Jun 19 $51 +$49 +96%
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $20 −$20 -98%
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $51 −$50 -98%
Will Iraq win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $10 −$10 -97%
Will Iraq vs. Norway end in a draw? Jun 16 $10 −$10 -97%
Will PSG win the 2025–26 Champions League? Jun 03 $30 +$85 +285%
Will the New York Knicks win the 2026 NBA Finals? Jun 03 $10 +$89 +886%
Spurs vs. Thunder May 31 $10 −$10 -98%
Spurs vs. Thunder May 27 $10 −$10 -98%
Knicks vs. Cavaliers May 26 $20 −$20 -98%
Thunder vs. Spurs May 23 $28 −$17 -62%
Cavaliers vs. Knicks May 20 $21 +$122 +596%
Will Sporting CP win on 2026-04-15? May 19 $10 −$10 -100%
Lakers vs. Thunder May 19 $10 −$10 -100%
Will Robinhood run an Ad during Super Bowl LX? May 19 $20 −$20 -100%
Cavaliers vs. Celtics May 19 $100 −$100 -100%
Will Sam Darnold win the Super Bowl LX MVP? May 19 $100 −$100 -100%
Will Luka Doncic win the 2025–2026 NBA MVP? May 19 $50 −$50 -100%
Spurs vs. Timberwolves May 19 $10 −$10 -100%
Spread: FC Barcelona (-1.5) May 19 $100 −$100 -100%
Will the Detroit Pistons win the 2026 NBA Finals? May 19 $20 −$20 -100%
Will Victor Wembanyama win the 2025–2026 NBA MVP? May 19 $10 −$10 -100%
Will the Denver Nuggets win the 2026 NBA Finals? May 19 $50 −$50 -100%
Will Nikola Jokic win the 2025–2026 NBA MVP? May 19 $10 −$10 -100%
Will Curtis Sliwa drop out? May 19 $5 −$5 -100%
Will Lamine Yamal win the 2025 Ballon d'Or? May 19 $100 −$100 -100%
Will OpenAI run an Ad during Super Bowl LX? May 19 $15 −$15 -100%
Will Raphinha win the 2025 Ballon d'Or? May 19 $20 −$20 -100%
Spurs vs. Thunder May 19 $31 +$16 +54%
Will FC Bayern München win on 2026-04-15? Apr 15 $90 +$94 +105%
Will the San Antonio Spurs win the 2026 NBA Finals? Mar 11 $25 −$25 -100%
Pistons vs. Nets Feb 09 $100 +$23 +24%
Will the Seattle Seahawks win Super Bowl 2026? Feb 09 $100 +$37 +37%
Will Coinbase run an Ad during Super Bowl LX? Feb 09 $20 +$14 +69%
Will Apple run an Ad during Super Bowl LX? Feb 09 $40 +$14 +35%
Grizzlies vs. Suns Oct 30 $100 +$82 +82%
Will the Oklahoma City Thunder win the 2025 NBA Finals? Jun 23 $30 +$196 +654%
Will Xander Schauffele win The 2025 U.S. Open? Jun 23 $10 −$10 -100%
Will Brooks Koepka win The 2025 U.S. Open? Jun 23 $10 −$10 -100%
Will the Indiana Pacers win the Eastern Conference? Jun 02 $300 +$242 +81%
Will Nikola Jokic win the 2024-25 NBA MVP? May 22 $10 −$10 -100%
Will the Denver Nuggets win the Western Conference? May 22 $15 −$15 -100%
Will Ludvig Aberg win The 2025 PGA Championship? May 22 $10 −$10 -100%
Will Jordan Spieth win The 2025 PGA Championship? May 22 $10 −$10 -100%
NBA Playoffs: Timberwolves vs. Warriors (To Advance) May 14 $100 +$50 +50%
NBA Playoffs: Cavaliers vs. Pacers (To Advance) May 14 $20 +$41 +203%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Norway vs. France end in a draw? BUY Yes 21¢ $15 1h
Will Spain win on 2026-06-26? BUY Yes 58¢ $51 1h
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-25? BUY Yes 25¢ $10 25h
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-25? AND Will Germany win on 2026-06-25? AND BUY 13¢ $15 25h
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-24? AND Will Brazil win on 2026-06-24? BUY 39¢ $51 46h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 39¢ $10 5d
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 68¢ $50 5d
Will Australia win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 19¢ $10 7d
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-18? SELL Yes 94¢ $100 7d
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 47¢ $51 8d
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 17¢ $20 8d
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 48¢ $51 8d
Will Iraq win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 3¢ $10 9d
Will Iraq vs. Norway end in a draw? BUY Yes 10¢ $10 9d
Will the New York Knicks win the 2026 NBA Finals? SELL Yes 36¢ $99 22d
Spurs vs. Thunder BUY Thunder 40¢ $10 26d
Spurs vs. Thunder BUY Spurs 23¢ $10 30d
Knicks vs. Cavaliers BUY Cavaliers 23¢ $10 31d
Knicks vs. Cavaliers BUY Cavaliers 31¢ $10 31d
Thunder vs. Spurs BUY Spurs 38¢ $17 34d
Thunder vs. Spurs SELL Thunder 59¢ $17 34d
Thunder vs. Spurs BUY Thunder 34¢ $10 34d
Cavaliers vs. Knicks BUY Knicks 14¢ $21 37d
Spurs vs. Thunder SELL Thunder 62¢ $47 38d
Spurs vs. Thunder BUY Thunder 28¢ $10 38d
Spurs vs. Thunder BUY Thunder 49¢ $20 38d
Spurs vs. Timberwolves BUY Timberwolves 4¢ $10 41d
Lakers vs. Thunder BUY Lakers 14¢ $10 51d
Will Nikola Jokic win the 2025–2026 NBA MVP? BUY Yes 2¢ $10 65d
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 17¢ $50 71d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $389.00 · official $389.00 (match) · 289 history records