Wallet analysis

2026-06-26T21:37:14+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

1.0
score
1F 0x1f10…a6e3 other 19 markets active 1h ago coverage 5d
TRAPdo not copy ⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL −$538 (-10%) realized −$553 · open +$15
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -26% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -36% what you keep after slip
Net edge-36%after slip
Net WR50%break-even
Win rate50%7W / 7L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$284per market
Trades / day5.9pace
Fees−$3est.
Kalshi-fit21%portable
Net worth$523now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 5d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
other 94% −$580
sports 6% +$49
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +50%
net ROI/market (all)-33.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 14 -25.9% -33.0% 50% 50% -20.1%
≤30d 14 -25.9% -33.0% 50% 50% -20.1%
≤90d 14 -25.9% -33.0% 50% 50% -20.1%
all 14 -25.9% -33.0% 50% 50% -20.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover5.9 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -33.0% 50% -20.1%
10% -39.4% 36% -27.7%
15% -45.2% 14% -34.7%
20% -50.6% 14% -41.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 49% · top 2 64% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -12% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -26% · $-wt -12% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -37% → late -15% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$163 vs −$241 · ×0.68 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.68 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

5d coverage
Net worth$523
Realized−$553
Unrealized+$15
Win rate (resolved)50%
Wins / losses7 / 7
Est. fees paid−$3
Open positions4
Markets (closed)14 / 19
History coverage5d
Avg bet$284
Trades / day5.9
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit21%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 4 History 14 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Uruguay vs. Spain: O/U 1.5 Over 67¢ 72¢ $200 $216 +$16 (+8%)
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-27? Yes 55¢ 55¢ $178 $176 −$2 (-1%)
Will Saudi Arabia win on 2026-06-26? No 65¢ 64¢ $100 $98 −$2 (-2%)
Uruguay vs. Spain: O/U 2.5 Over 42¢ 46¢ $30 $32 +$2 (+8%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 4 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Norway vs. France: O/U 6.5 Jun 26 $101 +$32 +32%
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-26? Jun 26 $102 −$6 -6%
Will Senegal win on 2026-06-26? Jun 26 $101 +$20 +20%
Will Spain win on 2026-06-26? Jun 26 $102 +$19 +19%
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-25? Jun 26 $51 −$48 -93%
Will United States win on 2026-06-25? Jun 25 $101 −$100 -99%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-24? Jun 25 $747 +$171 +23%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-24? Jun 24 $498 +$166 +33%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-25? Jun 24 $398 −$393 -99%
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-24? Jun 24 $101 −$100 -99%
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-23? Jun 24 $324 +$177 +55%
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-23? Jun 24 $1,009 +$559 +55%
Argentina vs. Austria: O/U 1.5 Jun 22 $2 −$2 -99%
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-21? Jun 22 $1,041 −$1,041 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Norway vs. France: O/U 6.5 SELL Under 100¢ $132 41m
Uruguay vs. Spain: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 42¢ $31 52m
Norway vs. France: O/U 6.5 BUY Under 75¢ $101 1h
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-26? SELL Yes 39¢ $96 1h
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-26? BUY Yes 40¢ $102 1h
Uruguay vs. Spain: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 67¢ $202 1h
Will Senegal win on 2026-06-26? SELL Yes 97¢ $121 2h
Will Saudi Arabia win on 2026-06-26? BUY No 65¢ $101 5h
Will Spain win on 2026-06-26? SELL No 42¢ $121 5h
Will Senegal win on 2026-06-26? BUY Yes 80¢ $101 6h
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-25? SELL Yes 2¢ $3 20h
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-25? BUY Yes 29¢ $51 23h
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-27? BUY Yes 55¢ $180 23h
Will Spain win on 2026-06-26? BUY No 34¢ $102 23h
Will United States win on 2026-06-25? BUY Yes 55¢ $101 23h
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-24? SELL Yes 100¢ $663 45h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-25? BUY Yes 55¢ $398 2d
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-24? BUY Yes 75¢ $195 2d
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-24? BUY Yes 80¢ $503 2d
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-24? BUY Yes 74¢ $302 2d
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-24? BUY Yes 59¢ $101 2d
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-24? BUY Yes 83¢ $244 2d
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-23? BUY Yes 64¢ $55 2d
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-23? BUY Yes 64¢ $270 2d
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-23? SELL Yes 99¢ $1,568 2d
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-23? AND Will England win on 2026-06-23? BUY 68¢ $200 4d
Argentina vs. Austria: O/U 1.5 BUY Under 79¢ $2 4d
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-23? BUY Yes 63¢ $1,009 4d
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 69¢ $1,003 5d
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 69¢ $38 5d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $522.99 · official $523.71 (match) · 33 history records