Wallet analysis

2026-06-21T08:23:31+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
1F 0x1f10…2e26 other 114 markets active 2h ago coverage 95d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$23 (+0%) realized +$23 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +7% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -3% what you keep after slip
Net edge-3%after slip
Net WR9%break-even
Win rate12%13W / 99L
Whale WR0%big bets
Drawdown70%max
Avg bet$231per market
Trades / day2.8pace
Fees−$1est.
Kalshi-fit54%portable
Net worth$210now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$1
7 days−$1
14 days−$1
30 days−$2
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 63% −$27
politics 21% −$6
sports 4% +$56
world 3% −$1
culture 3% −$1
finance 2% $0
economics 2% −$1
crypto 2% $0
tech 1% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +9%
net ROI/market (all)-3.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 4 -0.1% -9.6% 0% 0% -9.6%
≤30d 13 -0.1% -9.6% 15% 0% -9.6%
≤90d 107 +7.3% -2.9% 12% 9% -9.4%
all 112 +7.0% -3.2% 12% 9% -9.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover2.8 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -3.2% 9% -9.5%
10% -12.5% 9% -18.1%
15% -20.9% 9% -26.0%
20% -28.7% 9% -33.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 22% · top 2 36% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
23% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +7% · $-wt +0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 0% (≥$500) big bets weaker
Persistence
early +16% → late -2% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$8 vs −$1 · ×9.59 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.26 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

95d coverage
Net worth$210
Realized+$23
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)12%
Wins / losses13 / 99
Whale WR (big bets)0%
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions2
Markets (closed)112 / 114
History coverage95d
Avg bet$231
Trades / day2.8
Drawdown70%
Kalshi-fit54%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 112 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Solana reach $150 in June? No 100¢ 100¢ $110 $110 +$0 (+0%)
Will Bitcoin reach $77,500 in June? No 99¢ 99¢ $100 $100 −$0 (-0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Arvid Lindblad be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 21 $694 −$1 -0%
Will Alexander Albon be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 20 $300 $0 -0%
Will Aston Martin be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? Jun 19 $54 $0 -0%
Will Fabien Roussel win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 14 $60 $0 -0%
Will 6 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Jun 13 $38 $0 -0%
Will Elise Stefanik win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 07 $57 $0 -0%
Will Pete Hegseth win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 06 $251 $0 -0%
Will Yoaz Hendel be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 05 $33 $0 -0%
Will Ethereum dip to $1,400 in May? Jun 05 $64 $0 +0%
Will Solana reach $150 in May? Jun 05 $119 $0 +0%
Will 12 or more Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? May 28 $140 $0 -0%
Will the San Francisco Giants win the 2026 World Series? May 27 $51 $0 -0%
Will Tarcisio de Freitas win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? May 23 $42 $0 -0%
Will Nir Barkat be the next Prime Minister of Israel? May 20 $43 $0 -0%
Will Gabriel Bortoleto be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 19 $555 −$1 -0%
Will Haas be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? May 16 $727 −$1 -0%
Will Vladimir Putin win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? May 16 $244 $0 -0%
Will Ségolène Royal win the 2027 French presidential election? May 14 $244 $0 -0%
Will The Hunger Games: Sunrise on the Reaping be the top grossing movi May 14 $247 $0 -0%
Will Australia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 08 $446 $0 -0%
Will Wuthering Heights be the top grossing movie of 2026? May 07 $248 $0 -0%
Will Racing Bulls be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? May 06 $247 −$1 -0%
Will Germany win Eurovision 2026? May 05 $519 −$1 -0%
Will Amazon be the largest company in the world by market cap on June May 04 $255 $0 -0%
Will Serbia win Eurovision 2026? May 03 $510 −$1 -0%
Will Lance Stroll be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 02 $546 −$1 -0%
Will Azerbaijan win Eurovision 2026? May 01 $266 $0 -0%
Will Esteban Ocon be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 01 $487 −$1 -0%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $200 in April? Apr 24 $262 $0 -0%
Will Egypt win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 24 $258 $0 -0%
Will 11 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Apr 19 $262 $0 -0%
Will Panama win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 18 $270 $0 -0%
Will LeBron James win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Apr 18 $256 $0 -0%
Will Lithuania win Eurovision 2026? Apr 16 $260 $0 -0%
Will Michelle Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Apr 16 $264 −$1 -0%
Will Canada win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 16 $270 $0 -0%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $20 in April? Apr 15 $278 $0 -0%
Will Austria win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 15 $474 $0 -0%
Will Cape Verde win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 14 $439 $0 -0%
Will Mike Pence win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Apr 14 $274 $0 -0%
Will Carlos Sainz Jr. be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Apr 14 $482 $0 -0%
Will Iran win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 13 $498 −$1 -0%
Will South Africa win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 13 $460 $0 -0%
Will Williams be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? Apr 12 $258 $0 -0%
Will Park Yong-jin win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election Apr 12 $265 $0 -0%
Will Haiti win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 12 $263 $0 -0%
Will Rodina gain the most seats in the next Russian parliamentary elec Apr 11 $264 $0 -0%
Will Nicolas Dupont-Aignan win the 2027 French presidential election? Apr 11 $265 $0 -0%
Will Carole Delga win the 2027 French presidential election? Apr 10 $270 $0 -0%
Will Switzerland win Eurovision 2026? Apr 10 $267 $0 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Arvid Lindblad be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $42 1h
Will Arvid Lindblad be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $42 4h
Will Alexander Albon be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $57 23h
Will Alexander Albon be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $57 26h
Will Bitcoin reach $77,500 in June? BUY No 99¢ $100 29h
Will Aston Martin be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $54 41h
Will Aston Martin be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $54 43h
Will Fabien Roussel win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $60 6d
Will Fabien Roussel win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $60 6d
Will Solana reach $150 in June? BUY No 100¢ $110 7d
Will 6 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? SELL No 100¢ $38 7d
Will 6 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? BUY No 100¢ $38 7d
Will Elise Stefanik win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $57 13d
Will Elise Stefanik win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $57 14d
Will Pete Hegseth win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $56 14d
Will Pete Hegseth win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $56 15d
Will Yoaz Hendel be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 100¢ $33 15d
Will Yoaz Hendel be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 100¢ $33 15d
Will 12 or more Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? SELL No 100¢ $56 24d
Will 12 or more Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? BUY No 100¢ $56 24d
Will Ethereum dip to $1,400 in May? BUY No 100¢ $64 24d
Will the San Francisco Giants win the 2026 World Series? SELL No 99¢ $51 25d
Will the San Francisco Giants win the 2026 World Series? BUY No 99¢ $51 25d
Will 12 or more Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? SELL No 100¢ $46 25d
Will 12 or more Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? BUY No 100¢ $46 26d
Will Tarcisio de Freitas win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? SELL No 100¢ $42 29d
Will Tarcisio de Freitas win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? BUY No 100¢ $42 29d
Will 12 or more Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? SELL No 100¢ $37 30d
Will 12 or more Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? BUY No 100¢ $37 30d
Will Solana reach $150 in May? BUY No 100¢ $119 31d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $210.07 · official $210.07 (match) · 306 history records