Wallet analysis

2026-06-20T11:14:13+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

4.5
score
1F 0x1f12…e663 sports 8 markets active 4h ago coverage 7d
RISKYcopy with care sports specialist⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge
Total PnL +$258 (+41%) realized +$259 · open −$1
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +45% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +31% what you keep after slip
Net edge+31%after slip
Net WR43%break-even
Win rate43%3W / 4L
Drawdown64%max
Avg bet$79per market
Trades / day1.7pace
Fees−$9est.
Kalshi-fit75%portable
Net worth$118now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$151
7 days+$258
14 days+$258
30 days+$258
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 74% +$142
other 26% +$115
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +43%
net ROI/market (all)+31.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 7 +44.8% +31.0% 43% 43% +36.8%
≤30d 7 +44.8% +31.0% 43% 43% +36.8%
≤90d 7 +44.8% +31.0% 43% 43% +36.8%
all 7 +44.8% +31.0% 43% 43% +36.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.7 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to15%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +31.0% 43% +36.8%
10% +18.5% 43% +23.7%
15% +7.0% 43% +11.8%
20% -3.5% 43% +0.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 41% · top 2 79% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +51% too few recent
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +45% · $-wt +51% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
1.5 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$179 vs −$69 · ×2.57 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.93 per $1 lost it wins $1.93
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

7d coverage
Net worth$118
Realized+$259
Unrealized−$1
Win rate (resolved)43%
Wins / losses3 / 4
Est. fees paid−$9
Open positions1
Markets (closed)7 / 8
History coverage7d
Avg bet$79
Trades / day1.7
Drawdown64%
Kalshi-fit75%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 7 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Netherlands vs. Sweden: Both Teams to Score No 40¢ 40¢ $120 $118 −$1 (-1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 4 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
United States vs. Australia: O/U 1.5 Jun 19 $70 −$68 -98%
Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: O/U 3.5 Jun 18 $79 +$220 +276%
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $70 +$205 +291%
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $91 −$89 -98%
Belgium vs. Egypt: O/U 3.5 Jun 15 $66 −$64 -98%
Netherlands vs. Japan: O/U 1.5 Jun 14 $57 −$56 -98%
Qatar vs. Switzerland: O/U 2.5 Jun 13 $77 +$112 +146%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Netherlands vs. Sweden: Both Teams to Score BUY No 40¢ $122 3h
United States vs. Australia: O/U 1.5 BUY Under 25¢ $70 28h
Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 26¢ $3 2d
Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 26¢ $77 2d
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? BUY No 25¢ $4 3d
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? BUY No 25¢ $66 3d
Will France win on 2026-06-16? BUY No 35¢ $91 4d
Belgium vs. Egypt: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 27¢ $4 5d
Belgium vs. Egypt: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 27¢ $61 5d
Netherlands vs. Japan: O/U 1.5 BUY Under 26¢ $57 6d
Qatar vs. Switzerland: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 39¢ $5 7d
Qatar vs. Switzerland: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 40¢ $71 7d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $118.46 · official $118.46 (match) · 15 history records