Wallet analysis

2026-06-21T19:20:15+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
1F 0x1f18…dc6d other 76 markets active 2h ago coverage 5d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL +$18 (+2%) realized +$17 · open +$1
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -2% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -24% what you keep after slip
Net edge-24%after slip
Net WR18%break-even
Win rate45%18W / 22L
Drawdown24%max
Avg bet$12per market
Trades / day24.9pace
Kalshi-fit74%portable
Net worth$460now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 5d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
other 32% +$5
world 29% +$13
politics 22% +$1
culture 7% +$6
crypto 5% −$1
tech 3% −$1
economics 1% +$2
finance 1% −$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +18%
net ROI/market (all)-11.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 40 -1.6% -11.0% 45% 18% -4.9%
≤30d 40 -1.6% -11.0% 45% 18% -4.9%
≤90d 40 -1.6% -11.0% 45% 18% -4.9%
all 40 -1.6% -11.0% 45% 18% -4.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover24.9 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -11.0% 18% -4.9%
10% ← realistic here -19.5% 0% -14.0%
15% -27.3% 0% -22.3%
20% -34.4% 0% -30.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 30% · top 2 50% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +5% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
56% wins margin < slip thin win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -2% · $-wt +5% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -6% → late +3% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$2 vs −$0 · ×5.18 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×4.24 per $1 lost it wins $4.24
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

5d coverage
Net worth$460
Realized+$17
Unrealized+$1
Win rate (resolved)45%
Wins / losses18 / 22
Open positions36
Markets (closed)40 / 76
History coverage5d
Avg bet$12
Trades / day24.9
Drawdown24%
Kalshi-fit74%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 36 History 40 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Micah Lasher be the democratic nominee for NY-12? Yes 57¢ 58¢ $60 $61 +$1 (+2%)
Will Ecuador advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 74¢ 74¢ $60 $60 +$0 (+1%)
Will Trump meet with Pope Leo XIV in 2026? No 82¢ 81¢ $60 $60 −$0 (-1%)
Will Brazil win Group C in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 67¢ 66¢ $60 $60 −$0 (-1%)
Will Abbas Araghchi attend the US-Iran Signing Ceremony? No 83¢ 85¢ $43 $44 +$1 (+2%)
Israeli parliament dissolved by July 31? Yes 69¢ 69¢ $35 $35 +$0 (+0%)
Will Netherlands win Group F in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 78¢ 76¢ $25 $24 −$0 (-2%)
Will GPT-5.6 be released between June 22 and June 28, 2026? Yes 32¢ 30¢ $20 $18 −$1 (-7%)
Will Hyperliquid dip to $20 by December 31, 2026? No 86¢ 84¢ $15 $14 −$0 (-2%)
Will Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf sign a U.S. x Iran deal by July 31? No 78¢ 81¢ $13 $13 +$0 (+4%)
Fed rate hike in 2026? Yes 53¢ 62¢ $10 $12 +$2 (+16%)
Billionaire one-time wealth tax passes in California election 2026? No 76¢ 76¢ $4 $4 +$0 (+1%)
Will Bitcoin dip to $55,000 by December 31, 2026? Yes 74¢ 68¢ $5 $4 −$0 (-9%)
Will OpenAI's valuation hit (HIGH) $2.0T by December 31? No 87¢ 88¢ $3 $3 +$0 (+1%)
Will Hyperliquid reach $80 by December 31, 2026? Yes 80¢ 70¢ $3 $3 −$0 (-12%)
Will Victor Marx win the 2026 Colorado Governor Republican primary election? Yes 75¢ 72¢ $3 $3 −$0 (-4%)
Will New People (NL) gain the most seats in the next Russian parliamentary election? No 66¢ 69¢ $2 $2 +$0 (+4%)
Israel and Lebanon normalize relations before 2027? No 78¢ 80¢ $2 $2 +$0 (+3%)
Will the upper bound of the target federal funds rate be 4.0% at the end of 2026? No 68¢ 70¢ $2 $2 +$0 (+3%)
Will Renan Santos win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? No 85¢ 86¢ $2 $2 +$0 (+1%)
Will Lebanon join the Abraham Accords before 2027? No 83¢ 81¢ $2 $2 −$0 (-2%)
Will Mike Lindell win the 2026 Minnesota Governor Republican primary election? No 88¢ 76¢ $2 $2 −$0 (-13%)
Will no Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Yes 70¢ 81¢ $2 $2 +$0 (+15%)
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? No 82¢ 87¢ $2 $2 +$0 (+6%)
Will the Democratic Party win the TN-09 House seat? No 81¢ 84¢ $2 $2 +$0 (+4%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will "Toy Story 5" Opening Weekend Box Office be between 145m and 158m Jun 21 $60 +$6 +10%
Will Manny Rutinel be the Democratic nominee for CO-08? Jun 21 $53 +$1 +2%
Will Abbas Araghchi sign a U.S. x Iran deal by July 31? Jun 21 $60 +$6 +10%
Will Olivia Dean have a #1 hit in the US in June? Jun 20 $60 +$1 +1%
Will USA win Group D in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 20 $60 +$9 +14%
Will Israel and Lebanon hold a diplomatic meeting by June 30, 2026? Jun 20 $60 +$4 +6%
Jung Chung-rae out as DP leader by December 31, 2026? Jun 20 $2 $0 -6%
Will the US acquire part of Greenland in 2026? Jun 20 $2 $0 +2%
Will HYPE flip SOL by December 31? Jun 20 $2 $0 +6%
Will "Toy Story 5" Opening Weekend Box Office be greater than 184m? Jun 19 $5 $0 +10%
Will Apple be the second-largest company in the world by market cap on Jun 19 $3 $0 +13%
SAVE Act becomes law by December 31, 2026? Jun 19 $2 $0 -3%
Will Zcash reach $1000 by December 31, 2026? Jun 19 $2 $0 -14%
Will MicroStrategy announce holding 1M+ BTC by December 31, 2026?-bV81 Jun 19 $2 $0 +7%
Will 60 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 Jun 19 $2 $0 +12%
Will Ethereum dip to $1,600 June 15-21? Jun 19 $3 +$1 +21%
Will Bitcoin dip to $62,000 June 15-21? Jun 19 $3 −$1 -44%
Billionaire one-time wealth tax on California ballot? Jun 18 $11 −$2 -19%
Will Sheikh Tamim bin Hamad Al Thani sign a U.S. x Iran deal by July 3 Jun 18 $2 $0 +12%
Will the text of the US-Iran agreement be released by June 19? Jun 17 $3 $0 +15%
Will the text of the US-Iran agreement be released by June 17? Jun 17 $3 $0 +8%
Will Waymo launch in Dallas by June 30 2026? Jun 17 $3 −$1 -36%
Will Ethereum dip to $1,400 in June? Jun 17 $2 $0 -5%
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Switzerland? Jun 17 $2 $0 +1%
Will OpenAI’s market cap be $1.5T or greater at market close on IPO da Jun 17 $2 $0 -8%
Will Fernando Haddad qualify for Brazil's presidential runoff? Jun 17 $3 $0 -1%
Will Ethereum dip to $1,500 in June? Jun 17 $2 $0 +11%
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by July 31, 2026? Jun 17 $2 $0 -2%
Will Bitcoin reach $75,000 in June? Jun 17 $3 $0 -2%
Will Steve Witkoff have a diplomatic meeting with Iran by June 30? Jun 17 $2 $0 -6%
Will there be no Somaliland parliamentary election before 2027? Jun 17 $2 $0 -10%
Will Silver (SI) hit (LOW) $60 by end of June? Jun 17 $2 $0 -2%
Will Solana dip to $60 by December 31, 2026? Jun 17 $2 $0 -8%
SCOTUS accepts sports event contract case by July 31, 2026? Jun 17 $2 $0 -6%
Will Hamas agree to disarm by June 30? Jun 17 $2 $0 -2%
Will Crude Oil (CL) settle at >$84 in June? Jun 17 $2 −$1 -36%
Will SpaceX's valuation hit (HIGH) $3.0T by June 30? Jun 17 $3 $0 -9%
Will Donald Trump visit Turkey in 2026? Jun 17 $2 $0 -4%
Will Crude Oil reach a new all-time high by September 30? Jun 17 $3 $0 -4%
Will Russia enter Orikhiv by June 30? Jun 17 $2 $0 -1%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will "Toy Story 5" Opening Weekend Box Office be between 145m and 158m SELL No 87¢ $66 1h
Will Manny Rutinel be the Democratic nominee for CO-08? SELL Yes 86¢ $54 4h
Will GPT-5.6 be released between June 22 and June 28, 2026? BUY Yes 32¢ $20 4h
Israeli parliament dissolved by July 31? BUY Yes 69¢ $35 6h
Will Abbas Araghchi sign a U.S. x Iran deal by July 31? SELL No 77¢ $66 10h
Will Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf sign a U.S. x Iran deal by July 31? SELL No 50¢ $7 11h
Will Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf sign a U.S. x Iran deal by July 31? BUY No 78¢ $25 12h
Will Netherlands win Group F in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 78¢ $25 12h
Will Ecuador advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup BUY No 74¢ $60 14h
Will "Toy Story 5" Opening Weekend Box Office be between 145m and 158m BUY No 79¢ $60 14h
Will Abbas Araghchi attend the US-Iran Signing Ceremony? SELL No 53¢ $11 16h
Will Abbas Araghchi sign a U.S. x Iran deal by July 31? BUY No 70¢ $60 22h
Will Abbas Araghchi attend the US-Iran Signing Ceremony? BUY No 83¢ $60 24h
Will Olivia Dean have a #1 hit in the US in June? SELL No 89¢ $61 26h
Will Brazil win Group C in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 67¢ $61 30h
Will Israel and Lebanon hold a diplomatic meeting by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes 89¢ $64 35h
Will Manny Rutinel be the Democratic nominee for CO-08? BUY Yes 83¢ $53 38h
Jung Chung-rae out as DP leader by December 31, 2026? SELL Yes 75¢ $2 39h
Will the US acquire part of Greenland in 2026? SELL No 91¢ $3 40h
Will HYPE flip SOL by December 31? SELL No 87¢ $3 40h
Will Israel and Lebanon hold a diplomatic meeting by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 84¢ $60 40h
Will Micah Lasher be the democratic nominee for NY-12? BUY Yes 57¢ $61 41h
Will Olivia Dean have a #1 hit in the US in June? BUY No 88¢ $60 41h
Will Trump meet with Pope Leo XIV in 2026? BUY No 82¢ $60 41h
Will USA win Group D in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 87¢ $60 41h
Will Victor Marx win the 2026 Colorado Governor Republican primary ele BUY Yes 75¢ $3 45h
Will OpenAI's valuation hit (HIGH) $2.0T by December 31? BUY No 87¢ $3 45h
Will "Toy Story 5" Opening Weekend Box Office be greater than 184m? SELL No 85¢ $5 45h
Billionaire one-time wealth tax passes in California election 2026? BUY No 76¢ $4 2d
Will "Toy Story 5" Opening Weekend Box Office be greater than 184m? BUY No 77¢ $5 2d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $460.02 · official $460.03 (match) · 120 history records