Wallet analysis

2026-06-23T09:06:24+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

1.0
score
1F 0x1f18…6313 crypto 31 markets active 2h ago coverage 349d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL +$5 (+0%) realized +$6 · open −$1
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +1% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -8% what you keep after slip
Net edge-8%after slip
Net WR3%break-even
Win rate47%14W / 16L
Drawdown25%max
Avg bet$86per market
Trades / day0.1pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit82%portable
Net worth$18now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$0
7 days−$0
14 days−$0
30 days+$6
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 45% +$6
politics 24% −$1
sports 14% −$1
economics 10% $0
crypto 6% $0
tech 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +3%
net ROI/market (all)-8.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 1 -0.2% -9.7% 0% 0% -9.7%
≤30d 4 +8.1% -2.2% 75% 25% -3.1%
≤90d 4 +8.1% -2.2% 75% 25% -3.1%
all 30 +1.2% -8.5% 47% 3% -9.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.1 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -8.5% 3% -9.4%
10% -17.2% 3% -18.0%
15% -25.2% 0% -25.9%
20% -32.6% 0% -33.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 93% · top 2 95% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +7% too few recent
Fragile wins
93% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +1% · $-wt +0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +0% → late +2% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
0.8 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$0 · ×3.69 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×3.98 per $1 lost it wins $3.98
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

349d coverage
Net worth$18
Realized+$6
Unrealized−$1
Win rate (resolved)47%
Wins / losses14 / 16
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions1
Markets (closed)30 / 31
History coverage349d
Avg bet$86
Trades / day0.1
Drawdown25%
Kalshi-fit82%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 30 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Spread: Portugal (-1.5) Uzbekistan 35¢ 34¢ $19 $18 −$1 (-4%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Michelle Obama win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 23 $37 $0 -0%
Will DeepSeek have the best AI model at the end of April 2026? Jun 03 $12 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin reach $150,000 in March? Jun 03 $18 $0 +0%
Will Real Oviedo win on 2026-05-17? Jun 03 $19 +$6 +32%
Will the ECB announce a 50+ bps decrease at the April 2026 meeting? Mar 24 $36 $0 -0%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,600 on January 11? Mar 10 $7 $0 +0%
Will the price of Solana be above $180 on February 4? Mar 10 $50 $0 +0%
Will XRP dip to $1.40 January 5-11? Feb 02 $12 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be less than $82,000 on January 11? Jan 22 $8 $0 +0%
Will Elon Musk post 300-319 tweets from January 6 to January 13, 2026? Jan 09 $25 $0 -0%
Will the Charlotte Hornets win the 2026 NBA Finals? Jan 06 $42 $0 -0%
Will Union Saint-Gilloise win the 2025–26 Champions League? Dec 12 $43 $0 -0%
Will the price of Solana be above $190 on November 20? Dec 12 $12 $0 +0%
Will Kristi Noem win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Nov 19 $30 $0 -0%
Will Bitcoin reach $120,000 November 10-16? Nov 19 $9 $0 +1%
Will West Ham win the 2025–26 English Premier League? Nov 12 $32 $0 -0%
Ethereum above $4800 on September 8? Nov 12 $7 $0 +0%
Will Mohamed Salah win the 2025 Ballon d'Or? Sep 22 $275 $0 +0%
Will Ethereum reach $5000 September 8–14? Sep 22 $23 $0 +0%
Fed increases interest rates by 25+ bps after September 2025 meeting? Sep 12 $260 $0 +0%
Will the Cleveland Browns win Super Bowl 2026? Sep 12 $280 $0 -0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be less than $100K on September 8? Sep 12 $8 $0 +0%
Will the Los Angeles Angels win the 2025 World Series? Sep 08 $280 $0 +0%
Will Cole Palmer win the 2025 Ballon d'Or? Sep 08 $290 $0 -0%
Will XRP dip to $1.50 in August? Sep 08 $9 $0 +1%
Will Solana dip to $80 in July? Aug 13 $8 $0 +1%
Will PSV win the 2025–26 Champions League? Aug 13 $245 $0 -0%
Will Katie Britt win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Aug 13 $272 $0 -0%
Will Luis Arce win the 2025 Bolivia presidential election? Jul 09 $170 $0 -0%
Will Jim Walden win the 2025 NYC mayoral election? Jul 09 $115 $0 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Michelle Obama win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $37 1h
Spread: Portugal (-1.5) BUY Uzbekistan 35¢ $19 1h
Will Michelle Obama win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $37 1h
Will Real Oviedo win on 2026-05-17? BUY No 75¢ $19 39d
Will DeepSeek have the best AI model at the end of April 2026? BUY No 100¢ $12 63d
Will the ECB announce a 50+ bps decrease at the April 2026 meeting? SELL No 100¢ $36 91d
Will Bitcoin reach $150,000 in March? BUY No 100¢ $18 91d
Will the ECB announce a 50+ bps decrease at the April 2026 meeting? BUY No 100¢ $36 91d
Will the price of Solana be above $180 on February 4? BUY No 100¢ $50 141d
Will Elon Musk post 300-319 tweets from January 6 to January 13, 2026? SELL Yes 0¢ $0 165d
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,600 on January 11? BUY Yes 100¢ $7 165d
Will Elon Musk post 300-319 tweets from January 6 to January 13, 2026? SELL No 100¢ $25 165d
Will the price of Bitcoin be less than $82,000 on January 11? BUY No 100¢ $8 165d
Will the Charlotte Hornets win the 2026 NBA Finals? SELL No 100¢ $42 168d
Will XRP dip to $1.40 January 5-11? BUY No 100¢ $12 168d
Will the Charlotte Hornets win the 2026 NBA Finals? BUY No 100¢ $42 168d
Will Union Saint-Gilloise win the 2025–26 Champions League? SELL No 100¢ $43 193d
Will Union Saint-Gilloise win the 2025–26 Champions League? SELL Yes 0¢ $0 193d
Will Kristi Noem win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL Yes 0¢ $0 216d
Will the price of Solana be above $190 on November 20? BUY No 100¢ $12 216d
Will Kristi Noem win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 100¢ $30 216d
Will West Ham win the 2025–26 English Premier League? SELL Yes 0¢ $0 223d
Will Bitcoin reach $120,000 November 10-16? BUY No 99¢ $6 223d
Will West Ham win the 2025–26 English Premier League? SELL No 100¢ $32 223d
Will Bitcoin reach $120,000 November 10-16? BUY No 99¢ $3 223d
Will Ethereum reach $5000 September 8–14? BUY No 100¢ $23 283d
Will the Cleveland Browns win Super Bowl 2026? SELL No 100¢ $31 283d
Will the Cleveland Browns win Super Bowl 2026? SELL No 100¢ $249 283d
Will the Cleveland Browns win Super Bowl 2026? BUY No 100¢ $280 283d
Will the price of Bitcoin be less than $100K on September 8? BUY No 100¢ $8 288d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $18.26 · official $18.26 (match) · 75 history records