Wallet analysis

2026-06-21T06:27:19+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
1F 0x1f18…c075 sports 93 markets active 2h ago coverage 117d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$1,428 (+10%) realized +$1,232 · open +$196
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +8% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -3% what you keep after slip
Net edge-3%after slip
Net WR45%break-even
Win rate45%39W / 47L
Drawdown75%max
Avg bet$154per market
Trades / day1.1pace
Fees−$166est.
Kalshi-fit86%portable
Net worth$1,481now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$600
7 days−$420
14 days+$1,516
30 days+$1,322
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 77% +$1,299
other 20% +$12
crypto 2% +$53
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +45%
net ROI/market (all)-2.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 25 -17.7% -25.5% 44% 44% -18.9%
≤30d 77 +11.2% +0.6% 45% 45% +0.7%
≤90d 79 +8.4% -2.0% 44% 44% -0.1%
all 86 +7.6% -2.6% 45% 45% -0.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.1 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -2.6% 45% -0.8%
10% -12.0% 45% -10.3%
15% -20.5% 45% -18.9%
20% -28.3% 43% -26.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 13% · top 2 20% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +10% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +8% · $-wt +10% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +4% → late +11% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$180 vs −$125 · ×1.45 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×1.2 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

117d coverage
Net worth$1,481
Realized+$1,232
Unrealized+$196
Win rate (resolved)45%
Wins / losses39 / 47
Est. fees paid−$166
Open positions7
Markets (closed)86 / 93
History coverage117d
Avg bet$154
Trades / day1.1
Drawdown75%
Kalshi-fit86%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 7 History 86 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 9¢ 12¢ $405 $529 +$124 (+31%)
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 4¢ 6¢ $176 $229 +$53 (+30%)
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-21? Yes 61¢ 60¢ $150 $149 −$1 (-1%)
Uruguay vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 2.5 Under 59¢ 58¢ $150 $149 −$1 (-1%)
Belgium vs. IR Iran: O/U 2.5 Over 53¢ 52¢ $150 $149 −$1 (-1%)
Will Morocco win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 2¢ 2¢ $104 $139 +$35 (+34%)
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: O/U 3.5 Under 56¢ 52¢ $150 $138 −$12 (-8%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 47 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $152 +$83 +55%
Spread: Ecuador (-2.5) Jun 21 $152 +$111 +73%
Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire: Both Teams to Score Jun 20 $152 +$107 +70%
Netherlands vs. Sweden: O/U 2.5 Jun 20 $152 +$98 +65%
Spread: Germany (-1.5) Jun 20 $152 −$6 -4%
Brazil vs. Haiti: Haiti O/U 0.5 Jun 20 $152 +$107 +70%
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $152 −$150 -98%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $152 +$102 +67%
United States vs. Australia: O/U 2.5 Jun 19 $152 +$148 +97%
Uzbekistan vs. Colombia: O/U 2.5 Jun 18 $152 +$136 +90%
Ghana vs. Panama: Panama O/U 0.5 Jun 17 $152 −$150 -99%
England vs. Croatia: O/U 2.5 Jun 17 $152 −$150 -99%
Portugal vs. DR Congo: DR Congo O/U 0.5 Jun 17 $152 −$150 -99%
Iraq vs. Norway: O/U 4.5 Jun 16 $153 −$150 -98%
Counter-Strike: illwill vs ex-RUBY - Map 2 Winner Jun 16 $203 −$200 -99%
Counter-Strike: Gentle Mates vs Nuclear TigeRES (BO3) - NODWIN Clutch Jun 16 $142 −$140 -98%
Counter-Strike: Sashi Esport vs HyperSpirit (BO3) - European Pro Leagu Jun 16 $109 −$108 -99%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: Cabo Verde O/U 0.5 Jun 15 $303 +$173 +57%
Spread: Spain (-2.5) Jun 15 $152 −$150 -99%
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $304 +$273 +90%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Majo Jun 14 $153 +$196 +129%
Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador: Both Teams to Score Jun 14 $153 −$150 -98%
Tampa Bay Rays vs. Los Angeles Angels Jun 14 $153 −$150 -98%
Netherlands vs. Japan: O/U 2.5 Jun 14 $152 −$150 -99%
LoL: Top Esports vs Bilibili Gaming (BO5) - LPL Playoffs Jun 14 $153 −$150 -98%
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $152 −$150 -99%
Qatar vs. Switzerland: O/U 2.5 Jun 13 $153 +$213 +140%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs TheMongolz (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Jun 13 $153 +$499 +325%
Brazil vs. Morocco: O/U 2.5 Jun 13 $153 −$150 -98%
Counter-Strike: PARIVISION vs Legacy (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 13 $153 −$150 -98%
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs G2 - Map 1 Winner Jun 13 $154 −$150 -98%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs TheMongolz - Map 1 Winner Jun 13 $152 −$150 -99%
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 12 $103 +$897 +874%
Canada vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: O/U 2.5 Jun 12 $152 +$102 +67%
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs BetBoom Team (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Jun 12 $153 +$347 +226%
Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-12? Jun 12 $153 −$150 -98%
Counter-Strike: GenOne vs Virtus.pro - Map 2 Winner Jun 12 $202 +$98 +49%
Counter-Strike: PARIVISION vs Monte (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 12 $152 −$150 -99%
Counter-Strike: FUT Esports vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 12 $152 −$150 -99%
Counter-Strike: TheMongolz vs B8 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 12 $153 −$150 -98%
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs MOUZ (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 12 $153 −$150 -98%
Korea Republic vs. Czechia: Both Teams to Score Jun 12 $152 +$142 +93%
Spread: Mexico (-1.5) Jun 11 $153 +$213 +140%
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 11 $269 +$228 +85%
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs Monte (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage Jun 11 $152 +$79 +52%
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs FUT Esports (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stag Jun 11 $152 +$113 +75%
Will Turkiye win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 11 $231 −$68 -30%
Counter-Strike: MOUZ vs Legacy (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 11 $172 +$136 +79%
Counter-Strike: PARIVISION vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 11 $153 +$188 +124%
Counter-Strike: TheMongolz vs BetBoom Team (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major S Jun 11 $152 +$160 +105%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 61¢ $152 1h
Uruguay vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 59¢ $152 1h
Belgium vs. IR Iran: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 53¢ $152 1h
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: O/U 3.5 BUY Under 56¢ $152 1h
Spread: Ecuador (-2.5) BUY Curaçao 57¢ $152 16h
Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 58¢ $152 16h
Spread: Germany (-1.5) SELL Côte dIvoire 59¢ $146 16h
Spread: Germany (-1.5) BUY Côte dIvoire 60¢ $152 16h
Netherlands vs. Sweden: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 60¢ $152 16h
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 64¢ $152 16h
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 47¢ $152 27h
Brazil vs. Haiti: Haiti O/U 0.5 BUY Under 58¢ $152 38h
United States vs. Australia: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 50¢ $152 38h
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 59¢ $152 38h
Uzbekistan vs. Colombia: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 52¢ $152 3d
Ghana vs. Panama: Panama O/U 0.5 BUY Over 65¢ $152 3d
England vs. Croatia: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 55¢ $152 3d
Portugal vs. DR Congo: DR Congo O/U 0.5 BUY Under 57¢ $152 3d
Iraq vs. Norway: O/U 4.5 BUY Under 44¢ $153 4d
Counter-Strike: illwill vs ex-RUBY - Map 2 Winner BUY ex-RUBY 52¢ $203 4d
Counter-Strike: Gentle Mates vs Nuclear TigeRES (BO3) - NODWIN Clutch BUY Gentle Mates 50¢ $142 4d
Counter-Strike: Sashi Esport vs HyperSpirit (BO3) - European Pro Leagu BUY HyperSpirit 36¢ $7 4d
Counter-Strike: Sashi Esport vs HyperSpirit (BO3) - European Pro Leagu BUY HyperSpirit 36¢ $53 4d
Counter-Strike: Sashi Esport vs HyperSpirit (BO3) - European Pro Leagu BUY HyperSpirit 36¢ $50 4d
Spread: Spain (-2.5) BUY Spain 60¢ $152 5d
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: Cabo Verde O/U 0.5 BUY Under 63¢ $303 5d
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 52¢ $304 6d
Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 42¢ $153 6d
Tampa Bay Rays vs. Los Angeles Angels BUY Los Angeles Angels 37¢ $153 6d
Netherlands vs. Japan: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 53¢ $152 6d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $1,481.01 · official $1,481.66 (match) · 184 history records