Wallet analysis

2026-06-15T14:07:28+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

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1F 0x1f1a…8c6a crypto 1441 markets active 0h ago coverage 47d ⚠
UNRELIABLEdata unreliable crypto specialist⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 46d onlyP/L from Polymarket (history capped)
✗ on-chain reconstruction ≠ official P&L (longshot/capped history)✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL −$3,294 (-12%) realized −$3,294 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -4% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -26% what you keep after slip
Net edge-26%after slip
Net WR48%break-even
Win rate76%1102W / 339L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$19per market
Trades / day45.5pace
Kalshi-fit98%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 47d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 99% −$569
other 1% −$32
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +48%
net ROI/market (all)-13.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 242 -0.8% -10.2% 93% 6% -11.0%
≤30d 547 -2.1% -11.4% 84% 45% -14.8%
≤90d 1441 -4.2% -13.3% 76% 48% -11.5%
all 1441 -4.2% -13.3% 76% 48% -11.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover45.5 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -13.3% 48% -11.5%
10% ← realistic here -21.6% 13% -20.0%
15% -29.2% 4% -27.7%
20% -36.1% 1% -34.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 1% · top 2 2% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -2% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
36% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -4% · $-wt -2% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -7% → late -1% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.4 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$3 vs −$12 · ×0.26 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.86 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

47d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$3,294
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)76%
Wins / losses1102 / 339
Open positions0
Markets (closed)1441 / 1441
History coverage47d ⚠
Avg bet$19
Trades / day45.5
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit98%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 1441 Trades
no open positions (6 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:00AM-10:05AM ET Jun 15 $6 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:30AM-9:35AM ET Jun 15 $6 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:05AM-9:10AM ET Jun 15 $12 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:45AM-9:00AM ET Jun 15 $6 $0 +2%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 8:40AM-8:45AM ET Jun 15 $12 $0 +3%
Solana Up or Down - June 15, 8:30AM-8:35AM ET Jun 15 $11 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:55AM-7:00AM ET Jun 15 $6 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:45AM-7:00AM ET Jun 15 $6 $0 +1%
Solana Up or Down - June 15, 6:35AM-6:40AM ET Jun 15 $6 $0 +3%
Solana Up or Down - June 15, 6:05AM-6:10AM ET Jun 15 $6 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:40AM-4:45AM ET Jun 15 $6 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:30AM-4:35AM ET Jun 15 $6 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:30AM-2:35AM ET Jun 15 $12 $0 +2%
Solana Up or Down - June 15, 2:00AM-2:05AM ET Jun 15 $5 +$1 +15%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 1:15AM-1:30AM ET Jun 15 $6 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:10AM-1:15AM ET Jun 15 $6 $0 +2%
Solana Up or Down - June 15, 1:10AM-1:15AM ET Jun 15 $6 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:05AM-1:10AM ET Jun 15 $6 $0 +2%
Solana Up or Down - June 15, 12:50AM-12:55AM ET Jun 15 $12 +$1 +7%
Solana Up or Down - June 14, 9:10PM-9:15PM ET Jun 15 $6 $0 +6%
Solana Up or Down - June 14, 8:55PM-9:00PM ET Jun 15 $6 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:55PM-9:00PM ET Jun 15 $12 $0 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:05PM-8:10PM ET Jun 15 $6 $0 +3%
Solana Up or Down - June 14, 7:00PM-7:15PM ET Jun 14 $6 +$1 +15%
Solana Up or Down - June 14, 6:55PM-7:00PM ET Jun 14 $6 $0 +2%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 6:00PM-6:15PM ET Jun 14 $6 $0 +4%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 6:00PM-6:05PM ET Jun 14 $6 $0 +3%
Solana Up or Down - June 14, 6:00PM-6:05PM ET Jun 14 $6 $0 +3%
Solana Up or Down - June 14, 4:05PM-4:10PM ET Jun 14 $6 $0 +2%
Solana Up or Down - June 14, 2:45PM-3:00PM ET Jun 14 $4 +$6 +159%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 1:45PM-1:50PM ET Jun 14 $6 $0 +2%
Solana Up or Down - June 14, 1:15PM-1:30PM ET Jun 14 $6 +$1 +24%
Solana Up or Down - June 14, 12:15PM-12:20PM ET Jun 14 $6 $0 +3%
Solana Up or Down - June 14, 12:05PM-12:10PM ET Jun 14 $5 −$5 -100%
Solana Up or Down - June 14, 10:05AM-10:10AM ET Jun 14 $5 $0 +2%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 7:00AM-7:05AM ET Jun 14 $5 $0 +5%
Solana Up or Down - June 14, 6:50AM-6:55AM ET Jun 14 $5 $0 +2%
Solana Up or Down - June 14, 6:30AM-6:35AM ET Jun 14 $5 $0 +2%
Solana Up or Down - June 14, 5:50AM-5:55AM ET Jun 14 $5 $0 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 12:55AM-1:00AM ET Jun 14 $15 −$15 -99%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 13, 8:35PM-8:40PM ET Jun 14 $15 −$1 -4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 11:55PM-12:00AM ET Jun 14 $15 $0 +3%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 13, 11:40PM-11:45PM ET Jun 14 $15 $0 +3%
Solana Up or Down - June 13, 10:15PM-10:30PM ET Jun 14 $15 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 10:10PM-10:15PM ET Jun 14 $15 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 9:45PM-9:50PM ET Jun 14 $15 $0 +2%
Solana Up or Down - June 13, 9:15PM-9:30PM ET Jun 14 $15 $0 +2%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 13, 9:00PM-9:05PM ET Jun 14 $15 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 8:15PM-8:20PM ET Jun 14 $15 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 8:00PM-8:05PM ET Jun 14 $15 $0 +2%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:00AM-10:05AM ET BUY Down 98¢ $6 2m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:30AM-9:35AM ET BUY Down 98¢ $6 32m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:05AM-9:10AM ET BUY Up 97¢ $6 58m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:05AM-9:10AM ET BUY Up 98¢ $6 58m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:45AM-9:00AM ET BUY Up 98¢ $6 1h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 8:40AM-8:45AM ET BUY Up 96¢ $6 1h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 8:40AM-8:45AM ET BUY Up 98¢ $3 1h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 8:40AM-8:45AM ET BUY Up 98¢ $3 1h
Solana Up or Down - June 15, 8:30AM-8:35AM ET BUY Down 98¢ $6 1h
Solana Up or Down - June 15, 8:30AM-8:35AM ET BUY Down 97¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:55AM-7:00AM ET BUY Up 98¢ $6 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:45AM-7:00AM ET BUY Up 99¢ $6 3h
Solana Up or Down - June 15, 6:35AM-6:40AM ET BUY Down 97¢ $6 3h
Solana Up or Down - June 15, 6:05AM-6:10AM ET BUY Up 98¢ $6 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:40AM-4:45AM ET BUY Up 98¢ $6 5h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:30AM-4:35AM ET BUY Up 98¢ $6 5h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:30AM-2:35AM ET BUY Down 99¢ $6 7h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:30AM-2:35AM ET BUY Down 98¢ $1 7h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:30AM-2:35AM ET BUY Down 98¢ $5 7h
Solana Up or Down - June 15, 2:00AM-2:05AM ET BUY Down 86¢ $5 8h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 1:15AM-1:30AM ET BUY Up 98¢ $1 8h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 1:15AM-1:30AM ET BUY Up 98¢ $5 8h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:10AM-1:15AM ET BUY Up 98¢ $6 8h
Solana Up or Down - June 15, 1:10AM-1:15AM ET BUY Up 99¢ $6 8h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:05AM-1:10AM ET BUY Up 98¢ $6 8h
Solana Up or Down - June 15, 12:50AM-12:55AM ET BUY Up 89¢ $6 9h
Solana Up or Down - June 15, 12:50AM-12:55AM ET BUY Up 98¢ $6 9h
Solana Up or Down - June 14, 9:10PM-9:15PM ET BUY Up 94¢ $6 12h
Solana Up or Down - June 14, 8:55PM-9:00PM ET BUY Up 98¢ $6 13h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:55PM-9:00PM ET BUY Up 95¢ $6 13h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 3500 history records