Wallet analysis

2026-06-21T13:16:28+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
1F 0x1f1c…b96e other 57 markets active 2h ago coverage 7d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover
Total PnL −$120 (-14%) realized −$120 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -19% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -32% what you keep after slip
Net edge-32%after slip
Net WR21%break-even
Win rate21%12W / 44L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$15per market
Trades / day10.2pace
Fees−$5est.
Kalshi-fit35%portable
Net worth$50now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$44
7 days−$126
14 days−$126
30 days−$126
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 66% +$16
sports 30% −$114
world 2% −$14
crypto 1% −$12
weather 0% −$3
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +21%
net ROI/market (all)-26.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 55 -19.5% -27.2% 22% 22% -24.4%
≤30d 56 -19.2% -26.9% 21% 21% -24.2%
≤90d 56 -19.2% -26.9% 21% 21% -24.2%
all 56 -19.2% -26.9% 21% 21% -24.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover10.2 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -26.9% 21% -24.2%
10% -33.9% 21% -31.5%
15% -40.3% 21% -38.1%
20% -46.1% 14% -44.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 21% · top 2 37% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -16% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -19% · $-wt -16% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -45% → late +7% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$27 vs −$10 · ×2.64 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×0.72 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

7d coverage
Net worth$50
Realized−$120
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)21%
Wins / losses12 / 44
Est. fees paid−$5
Open positions1
Markets (closed)56 / 57
History coverage7d
Avg bet$15
Trades / day10.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit35%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 56 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-21? Yes 68¢ 68¢ $51 $50 −$0 (-1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 36 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Exact Score: Germany 2 - 1 Côte d'Ivoire? Jun 20 $6 +$44 +712%
Exact Score: Tunisia 1 - 1 Japan? Jun 20 $6 −$6 -97%
Exact Score: Tunisia 1 - 2 Japan? Jun 20 $6 −$6 -97%
Exact Score: Ecuador 2 - 1 Curaçao? Jun 20 $6 −$6 -97%
Exact Score: Ecuador 2 - 0 Curaçao? Jun 20 $6 −$6 -98%
Exact Score: Germany 3 - 1 Côte d'Ivoire? Jun 20 $6 −$6 -97%
Exact Score: Netherlands 2 - 1 Sweden? Jun 20 $6 −$6 -97%
Exact Score: Netherlands 1 - 1 Sweden? Jun 20 $6 −$6 -97%
Exact Score: Scotland 0 - 1 Morocco? Jun 20 $8 +$42 +510%
Spread: Brazil (-3.5) Jun 19 $14 −$14 -98%
Exact Score: Brazil 2 - 0 Haiti? Jun 19 $8 −$1 -12%
Exact Score: Brazil 3 - 0 Haiti? Jun 19 $8 −$1 -11%
Exact Score: Türkiye 1 - 1 Paraguay? Jun 19 $7 −$7 -98%
Exact Score: Türkiye 2 - 1 Paraguay? Jun 19 $7 −$7 -97%
Exact Score: Scotland 1 - 1 Morocco? Jun 19 $8 −$8 -98%
Exact Score: United States 2 - 1 Australia? Jun 19 $8 −$8 -97%
Exact Score: United States 1 - 1 Australia? Jun 19 $8 −$8 -97%
Exact Score: Mexico 1 - 0 Korea Republic? Jun 19 $10 +$52 +510%
LoL: Dplus KIA Challengers vs T1 Academy (BO5) - Asia Masters Playoffs Jun 18 $5 −$4 -71%
Exact Score: Mexico 1 - 1 Korea Republic? Jun 18 $10 −$10 -98%
Exact Score: Canada 2 - 0 Qatar? Jun 18 $10 −$10 -98%
Exact Score: Canada 1 - 0 Qatar? Jun 18 $10 −$10 -98%
Exact Score: Switzerland 1 - 1 Bosnia-Herzegovina? Jun 18 $10 −$10 -97%
Exact Score: Switzerland 1 - 0 Bosnia-Herzegovina? Jun 18 $10 −$10 -98%
Exact Score: Czechia 2 - 0 South Africa? Jun 18 $10 −$10 -97%
Exact Score: Czechia 1 - 0 South Africa? Jun 18 $10 −$10 -98%
Exact Score: Ghana 1 - 0 Panama? Jun 18 $10 +$67 +650%
Exact Score: Uzbekistan 0 - 2 Colombia? Jun 17 $21 −$20 -98%
Exact Score: Ghana 1 - 1 Panama? Jun 17 $21 −$20 -98%
Exact Score: England 2 - 1 Croatia? Jun 17 $21 −$20 -97%
Exact Score: Portugal 2 - 0 DR Congo? Jun 17 $20 −$20 -98%
Counter-Strike: SPARTA vs INOX Division - Map 1 Winner Jun 17 $10 −$10 -98%
Valorant: Gen.G Global Academy vs ONSIDE GAMING (BO3) - VCL Korea: Reg Jun 17 $20 +$13 +65%
Dota 2: Vici Gaming vs Cloud Rising - Game 2 Winner Jun 17 $2 −$2 -97%
Dota 2: Vici Gaming vs Cloud Rising (BO3) - The International China Cl Jun 17 $10 −$9 -89%
Counter-Strike: INFURITY Gaming vs Alpha Gaming (BO3) - United21 Group Jun 17 $10 −$10 -98%
Exact Score: Uzbekistan 0 - 1 Colombia? Jun 17 $10 −$10 -98%
Exact Score: England 1 - 0 Croatia? Jun 17 $10 −$10 -98%
Exact Score: Portugal 3 - 0 DR Congo? Jun 17 $10 −$10 -98%
Will Austria win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $50 +$21 +42%
Spread: Austria (-1.5) Jun 17 $40 −$32 -80%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $50 +$22 +44%
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $50 +$24 +48%
Will Iraq vs. Norway end in a draw? Jun 16 $10 −$10 -98%
Counter-Strike: HOTU vs TDK (BO3) - NODWIN Clutch Series Playoffs Jun 16 $10 +$12 +119%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 26°C on June 16? Jun 16 $3 −$3 -88%
Counter-Strike: Gentle Mates vs Nuclear TigeRES (BO3) - NODWIN Clutch Jun 16 $30 −$30 -98%
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? Jun 16 $20 −$20 -98%
Spread: Belgium (-1.5) Jun 15 $15 +$8 +53%
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $15 −$14 -99%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 68¢ $51 1h
Exact Score: Tunisia 1 - 1 Japan? BUY Yes 12¢ $6 31h
Exact Score: Tunisia 1 - 2 Japan? BUY Yes 12¢ $6 31h
Exact Score: Ecuador 2 - 1 Curaçao? BUY Yes 8¢ $6 31h
Exact Score: Ecuador 2 - 0 Curaçao? BUY Yes 17¢ $6 31h
Exact Score: Germany 3 - 1 Côte d'Ivoire? BUY Yes 9¢ $6 31h
Exact Score: Germany 2 - 1 Côte d'Ivoire? BUY Yes 12¢ $6 31h
Exact Score: Netherlands 2 - 1 Sweden? BUY Yes 12¢ $6 31h
Exact Score: Netherlands 1 - 1 Sweden? BUY Yes 12¢ $6 31h
Spread: Brazil (-3.5) BUY Brazil 32¢ $14 2d
Exact Score: Brazil 2 - 0 Haiti? SELL Yes 12¢ $7 2d
Exact Score: Brazil 3 - 0 Haiti? SELL Yes 14¢ $7 2d
Exact Score: Türkiye 1 - 1 Paraguay? BUY Yes 15¢ $7 2d
Exact Score: Türkiye 2 - 1 Paraguay? BUY Yes 11¢ $7 2d
Exact Score: Brazil 3 - 0 Haiti? BUY Yes 15¢ $8 2d
Exact Score: Brazil 2 - 0 Haiti? BUY Yes 13¢ $8 2d
Exact Score: Scotland 1 - 1 Morocco? BUY Yes 13¢ $8 2d
Exact Score: Scotland 0 - 1 Morocco? BUY Yes 16¢ $8 2d
Exact Score: United States 2 - 1 Australia? BUY Yes 11¢ $8 2d
Exact Score: United States 1 - 1 Australia? BUY Yes 11¢ $8 2d
LoL: Dplus KIA Challengers vs T1 Academy (BO5) - Asia Masters Playoffs SELL Dplus KIA Challengers 12¢ $1 3d
LoL: Dplus KIA Challengers vs T1 Academy (BO5) - Asia Masters Playoffs BUY Dplus KIA Challengers 39¢ $5 3d
Exact Score: Mexico 1 - 1 Korea Republic? BUY Yes 16¢ $10 3d
Exact Score: Mexico 1 - 0 Korea Republic? BUY Yes 16¢ $10 3d
Exact Score: Canada 2 - 0 Qatar? BUY Yes 15¢ $10 3d
Exact Score: Canada 1 - 0 Qatar? BUY Yes 13¢ $10 3d
Exact Score: Switzerland 1 - 1 Bosnia-Herzegovina? BUY Yes 12¢ $10 3d
Exact Score: Switzerland 1 - 0 Bosnia-Herzegovina? BUY Yes 15¢ $10 3d
Exact Score: Czechia 2 - 0 South Africa? BUY Yes 11¢ $10 3d
Exact Score: Czechia 1 - 0 South Africa? BUY Yes 14¢ $10 3d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $50.47 · official $50.47 (match) · 85 history records