Wallet analysis

2026-06-22T04:41:45+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
1F 0x1f1e…fbb1 other 20 markets active 2h ago coverage 5d
RISKYcopy with care ⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$70 (+5%) realized −$1 · open +$71
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -16% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -27% what you keep after slip
Net edge-27%after slip
Net WR56%break-even
Win rate56%5W / 4L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$67per market
Trades / day4.5pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit5%portable
Net worth$937now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 5d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
other 99% +$84
sports 1% −$18
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +56%
net ROI/market (all)-23.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 9 -15.9% -23.9% 56% 56% -10.6%
≤30d 9 -15.9% -23.9% 56% 56% -10.6%
≤90d 9 -15.9% -23.9% 56% 56% -10.6%
all 9 -15.9% -23.9% 56% 56% -10.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover4.5 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -23.9% 56% -10.6%
10% -31.2% 56% -19.2%
15% -37.9% 44% -27.0%
20% -43.9% 33% -34.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 30% · top 2 54% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -16% · $-wt -1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$30 vs −$39 · ×0.77 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.96 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

5d coverage
Net worth$937
Realized−$1
Unrealized+$71
Win rate (resolved)56%
Wins / losses5 / 4
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions11
Markets (closed)9 / 20
History coverage5d
Avg bet$67
Trades / day4.5
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit5%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 11 History 9 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will France reach the Quarterfinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 61¢ 62¢ $137 $139 +$2 (+2%)
Will Brazil win Group C in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 67¢ 66¢ $134 $133 −$1 (-1%)
Will Argentina win Group J in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 87¢ 86¢ $130 $128 −$2 (-2%)
Will England reach the Quarterfinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 55¢ 64¢ $82 $95 +$13 (+15%)
Will England win Group L in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 70¢ 92¢ $70 $92 +$22 (+32%)
Will Japan be the furthest advancing AFC nation at the World Cup? Yes 38¢ 54¢ $57 $80 +$23 (+41%)
Will France reach the Semifinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 46¢ 46¢ $69 $68 −$1 (-1%)
Will England reach the Semifinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 36¢ 38¢ $54 $58 +$4 (+7%)
Will Norway reach the Quarterfinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 32¢ 34¢ $48 $51 +$3 (+6%)
Will USA reach the Quarterfinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 38¢ 46¢ $38 $46 +$8 (+22%)
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? Yes 66¢ 64¢ $46 $45 −$1 (-2%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 4 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $51 −$51 -99%
Will Germany win Group E in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 21 $75 +$25 +34%
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $51 +$24 +46%
Ecuador vs. Curaçao: O/U 2.5 Jun 21 $19 −$18 -98%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $65 +$35 +55%
Will England win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $29 +$21 +70%
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $78 −$77 -99%
Will Austria win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $10 −$10 -98%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $88 +$46 +52%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 66¢ $47 1h
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 68¢ $51 21h
Will Brazil win Group C in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 67¢ $135 21h
Will Germany win Group E in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 100¢ $100 21h
Ecuador vs. Curaçao: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 37¢ $19 27h
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 68¢ $51 27h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 64¢ $65 3d
Will England win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 58¢ $29 4d
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 77¢ $78 4d
Will Argentina win Group J in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 87¢ $131 4d
Will France reach the Quarterfinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 62¢ $63 4d
Will Japan be the furthest advancing AFC nation at the World Cup? BUY Yes 38¢ $58 4d
Will Austria win on 2026-06-17? BUY No 16¢ $10 4d
Will France reach the Semifinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 46¢ $9 5d
Will France reach the Semifinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 46¢ $61 5d
Will England reach the Semifinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 36¢ $55 5d
Will England win Group L in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 70¢ $71 5d
Will Norway reach the Quarterfinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 32¢ $49 5d
Will USA reach the Quarterfinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 38¢ $39 5d
Will England reach the Quarterfinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 55¢ $84 5d
Will France reach the Quarterfinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 61¢ $76 5d
Will Germany win Group E in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 74¢ $75 5d
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 65¢ $88 5d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $937.34 · official $937.34 (match) · 27 history records