Wallet analysis

2026-06-19T03:50:01+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
1F 0x1f1f…00a7 crypto 320 markets active 1h ago coverage 50d
TRAPdo not copy ⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL +$1,273 (+4%) realized +$1,384 · open −$111
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -11% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -26% what you keep after slip
Net edge-26%after slip
Net WR45%break-even
Win rate48%150W / 161L
Whale WR44%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$96per market
Trades / day11.2pace
Fees−$238est.
Kalshi-fit89%portable
Net worth$1,156now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$439
7 days−$2,123
14 days−$2,123
30 days+$1,711
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 35% +$944
sports 33% +$631
other 23% −$718
world 6% +$157
politics 3% −$822
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +45%
net ROI/market (all)-19.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 89 -54.0% -58.4% 18% 16% -23.1%
≤30d 199 -11.7% -20.1% 46% 43% -2.5%
≤90d 311 -10.7% -19.2% 48% 45% -8.6%
all 311 -10.7% -19.2% 48% 45% -8.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover11.2 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -19.2% 45% -8.6%
10% -27.0% 40% -17.3%
15% -34.0% 30% -25.3%
20% -40.5% 23% -32.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 10% · top 2 19% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
6% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -11% · $-wt +1% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR 44% (≥$500) big bets weaker
Persistence
early -3% → late -18% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.5 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$78 vs −$71 · ×1.1 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×1.03 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

50d coverage
Net worth$1,156
Realized+$1,384
Unrealized−$111
Win rate (resolved)48%
Wins / losses150 / 161
Whale WR (big bets)44%
Est. fees paid−$238
Open positions9
Markets (closed)311 / 320
History coverage50d
Avg bet$96
Trades / day11.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit89%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 9 History 311 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 5¢ 4¢ $400 $329 −$71 (-18%)
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 9¢ 12¢ $200 $264 +$64 (+32%)
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 17¢ 14¢ $204 $164 −$40 (-20%)
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 9¢ 7¢ $200 $153 −$47 (-24%)
Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 2¢ 3¢ $140 $146 +$6 (+4%)
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 11¢ 7¢ $111 $77 −$34 (-31%)
Will Trump dance during UFC Freedom 250? No 46¢ 95¢ $10 $21 +$11 (+107%)
Will J.D. Vance win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Yes 33¢ 37¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+12%)
Will Donald Trump win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Yes 2¢ 2¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-7%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 3 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-18? Jun 19 $205 −$200 -98%
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $202 +$115 +57%
Will Qatar win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $154 −$150 -97%
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $203 −$200 -99%
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-17? Jun 18 $303 +$55 +18%
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-17? Jun 18 $204 +$296 +145%
Will England vs. Croatia end in a draw? Jun 17 $205 −$205 -100%
Exact Score: Portugal 1 - 2 DR Congo? Jun 17 $2 −$2 -100%
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $416 −$229 -55%
Will DR Congo win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $103 −$103 -100%
Exact Score: Portugal 2 - 1 DR Congo? Jun 17 $31 −$31 -100%
Will Portugal vs. DR Congo end in a draw? Jun 17 $102 +$154 +152%
Will Austria win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $151 +$60 +40%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $1,924 +$1,050 +55%
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-14? Jun 17 $102 −$102 -100%
LoL: Top Esports vs Bilibili Gaming (BO5) - LPL Playoffs Jun 17 $357 −$357 -100%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-13? Jun 17 $476 −$476 -100%
World Cup: Most Player Goals Record Broken? Jun 17 $1,141 −$687 -60%
Will France vs. Senegal end in a draw? Jun 16 $409 −$223 -54%
Will Trump agree to withdraw troops from the Iranian region by June 30 Jun 16 $400 +$46 +12%
Will IR Iran vs. New Zealand end in a draw? Jun 16 $235 +$57 +24%
Will Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay end in a draw? Jun 16 $307 +$829 +270%
Will Argentina vs. Algeria end in a draw? Jun 16 $205 −$19 -9%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? Jun 15 $1,500 +$111 +7%
UFC Freedom 250: Steve Garcia vs. Diego Lopes (Featherweight, Main Car Jun 15 $304 +$208 +68%
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $101 −$7 -7%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $306 +$325 +106%
LoL: Galions vs Eintracht Spandau (BO5) - EMEA Masters Playoffs Jun 14 $113 −$88 -78%
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G (BO5) - LCK Road to MSI Jun 14 $357 +$804 +225%
LoL: Team WE vs Bilibili Gaming (BO5) - LPL Playoffs Jun 13 $146 −$146 -100%
Will Qatar win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $17 −$5 -29%
Will Qatar vs. Switzerland end in a draw? Jun 13 $21 −$5 -24%
LoL: Gen.G vs KT Rolster (BO5) - LCK Road to MSI Jun 13 $21 −$21 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 21, 5:10PM-5:15PM ET Jun 13 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 24, 9:25PM-9:30PM ET Jun 13 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 24, 1:10PM-1:15PM ET Jun 13 $6 −$6 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 21, 10:10PM-10:15PM ET Jun 13 $16 −$16 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 24, 2:10PM-2:15PM ET Jun 13 $16 −$16 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 21, 11:15PM-11:20PM ET Jun 13 $16 −$16 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 21, 11:10PM-11:15PM ET Jun 13 $16 −$16 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 22, 11:40AM-11:45AM ET Jun 13 $27 −$27 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 24, 1:20PM-1:25PM ET Jun 13 $16 −$16 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 21, 5:45PM-5:50PM ET Jun 13 $16 −$16 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 25, 11:40AM-11:45AM ET Jun 13 $21 −$21 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 3, 7:10PM-7:15PM ET Jun 13 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 21, 11:40PM-11:45PM ET Jun 13 $31 −$31 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 25, 11:55AM-12:00PM ET Jun 13 $21 −$21 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 7:50AM-7:55AM ET Jun 13 $11 −$11 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 24, 12:55PM-1:00PM ET Jun 13 $66 +$3 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 24, 1:45PM-1:50PM ET Jun 13 $31 −$31 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 4¢ $103 1h
Will Qatar win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 8¢ $103 15h
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 25¢ $102 15h
Will Qatar win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 8¢ $51 15h
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 53¢ $203 15h
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 63¢ $202 15h
Will J.D. Vance win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY Yes 33¢ $1 26h
Will Donald Trump win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY Yes 2¢ $1 26h
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-17? SELL Yes 100¢ $499 26h
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-17? SELL Yes 70¢ $147 29h
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 40¢ $204 29h
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 71¢ $303 29h
Will England vs. Croatia end in a draw? BUY Yes 17¢ $205 31h
Will Portugal vs. DR Congo end in a draw? SELL Yes 100¢ $256 32h
Exact Score: Portugal 2 - 1 DR Congo? BUY Yes 34¢ $31 33h
Exact Score: Portugal 1 - 2 DR Congo? BUY Yes 9¢ $2 33h
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? SELL Yes 50¢ $187 33h
Will Portugal vs. DR Congo end in a draw? BUY Yes 39¢ $102 33h
Will DR Congo win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 10¢ $103 33h
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 54¢ $203 33h
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 54¢ $213 33h
Will Austria win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 71¢ $151 2d
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 64¢ $1,924 2d
World Cup: Most Player Goals Record Broken? SELL Yes 3¢ $454 2d
World Cup: Most Player Goals Record Broken? BUY Yes 9¢ $719 2d
World Cup: Most Player Goals Record Broken? BUY Yes 9¢ $205 2d
World Cup: Most Player Goals Record Broken? BUY Yes 7¢ $103 2d
Will France vs. Senegal end in a draw? BUY Yes 24¢ $205 2d
World Cup: Most Player Goals Record Broken? BUY Yes 5¢ $10 2d
World Cup: Most Player Goals Record Broken? BUY Yes 4¢ $51 2d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $1,155.95 · official $1,156.53 (match) · 857 history records