Wallet analysis

2026-06-29T19:58:33+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.5
score
1F 0x1f1f…8045 sports 373 markets active 1h ago coverage 238d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialist
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$1,008 (-9%) realized −$1,004 · open −$4
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -12% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -24% what you keep after slip
Net edge-24%after slip
Net WR44%break-even
Win rate45%168W / 204L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$29per market
Trades / day4.1pace
Fees−$2est.
Kalshi-fit66%portable
Net worth$34now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$81
7 days+$81
14 days+$23
30 days+$23
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 66% −$1,221
other 33% +$312
politics 0% −$21
world 0% +$3
tech 0% −$3
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +44%
net ROI/market (all)-20.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 2 +90.1% +72.0% 100% 100% +72.8%
≤30d 5 -23.9% -31.2% 40% 40% +4.9%
≤90d 5 -23.9% -31.2% 40% 40% +4.9%
all 372 -12.2% -20.6% 45% 44% -17.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover4.1 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -20.6% 44% -17.2%
10% -28.2% 39% -25.2%
15% -35.1% 34% -32.4%
20% -41.5% 28% -39.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 3% · top 2 5% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +16% too few recent
Fragile wins
2% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -12% · $-wt -9% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -15% → late -9% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.5 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$20 vs −$21 · ×0.94 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.78 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

238d coverage
Net worth$34
Realized−$1,004
Unrealized−$4
Win rate (resolved)45%
Wins / losses168 / 204
Est. fees paid−$2
Open positions1
Markets (closed)372 / 373
History coverage238d
Avg bet$29
Trades / day4.1
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit66%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 372 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Germany vs. Paraguay: O/U 3.5 Over 38¢ 34¢ $38 $34 −$4 (-9%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 10 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-29? Jun 29 $46 +$54 +118%
Brazil vs. Japan: O/U 2.5 Jun 29 $43 +$27 +62%
Mexico vs. Korea Republic: Korea Republic O/U 0.5 Jun 19 $27 −$27 -99%
Mexico vs. Korea Republic: O/U 2.5 Jun 19 $11 −$11 -98%
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-18? Jun 19 $20 −$20 -98%
FC Internazionale Milano vs. Arsenal FC: O/U 3.5 Jan 20 $54 +$14 +26%
Tottenham Hotspur FC vs. BV Borussia 09 Dortmund: O/U 3.5 Jan 20 $45 −$39 -88%
Spread: Paris Saint-Germain FC (-1.5) Jan 20 $18 −$17 -97%
Coventry City FC vs. Millwall FC: O/U 2.5 Jan 20 $64 +$33 +52%
Tottenham Hotspur FC vs. BV Borussia 09 Dortmund: Both Teams to Score Jan 20 $62 −$27 -44%
Preston North End FC vs. Hull City AFC: O/U 2.5 Jan 20 $18 +$32 +178%
Spread: Coventry City FC (-1.5) Jan 20 $24 −$23 -100%
Olympiakós SFP vs. Bayer 04 Leverkusen: Both Teams to Score Jan 20 $30 −$30 -100%
FK Bodø/Glimt vs. Manchester City FC: O/U 4.5 Jan 20 $75 −$74 -100%
Will FK Bodø/Glimt vs. Manchester City FC end in a draw? Jan 20 $22 −$18 -83%
Brighton & Hove Albion FC vs. AFC Bournemouth: O/U 2.5 Jan 19 $15 −$15 -100%
Elche CF vs. Sevilla FC: O/U 3.5 Jan 19 $17 +$11 +67%
CF Estrela da Amadora vs. Estoril Praia: O/U 3.5 Jan 19 $39 +$6 +15%
Will En Avant Guingamp win on 2026-01-19? Jan 19 $22 +$38 +178%
Elche CF vs. Sevilla FC: O/U 2.5 Jan 19 $28 +$20 +72%
CF Estrela da Amadora vs. Estoril Praia: O/U 2.5 Jan 19 $66 +$52 +79%
Granada CF vs. SD Eibar: O/U 2.5 Jan 19 $27 −$26 -98%
AS Nancy-Lorraine vs. En Avant Guingamp: O/U 2.5 Jan 19 $20 −$18 -91%
Spread: Brighton & Hove Albion FC (-1.5) Jan 19 $28 −$23 -82%
SS Lazio vs. Como 1907: O/U 2.5 Jan 19 $32 +$16 +51%
Granada CF vs. SD Eibar: O/U 1.5 Jan 19 $55 −$55 -100%
Will Beşiktaş JK win on 2026-01-19? Jan 19 $37 −$14 -37%
Konyaspor vs. Eyüpspor: O/U 1.5 Jan 19 $34 +$12 +37%
Will Eyüpspor win on 2026-01-19? Jan 19 $14 +$9 +67%
Will CD Tondela win on 2026-01-18? Jan 19 $30 −$29 -98%
Real Sociedad de Fútbol vs. FC Barcelona: O/U 3.5 Jan 19 $44 +$1 +1%
Cagliari Calcio vs. Juventus FC: O/U 1.5 Jan 19 $28 −$28 -100%
Olympique Lyonnais vs. Stade Brestois 29: O/U 3.5 Jan 19 $24 −$24 -100%
AC Milan vs. US Lecce: O/U 1.5 Jan 19 $20 −$20 -100%
Will Hamburger SV win on 2026-01-17? Jan 19 $20 −$20 -100%
Torino FC vs. AS Roma: O/U 2.5 Jan 19 $30 −$30 -100%
Nets vs. Bulls: 1H O/U 114.5 Jan 19 $40 −$40 -100%
Will Hertha BSC win on 2026-01-17? Jan 19 $65 −$34 -52%
Will Real Sociedad de Fútbol vs. FC Barcelona end in a draw? Jan 19 $23 −$23 -100%
Real Betis Balompié vs. Villarreal CF: O/U 2.5 Jan 19 $31 −$31 -100%
Will FC Barcelona win on 2026-01-18? Jan 19 $34 −$34 -100%
Fortuna Sittard vs. PSV: O/U 3.5 Jan 19 $67 −$67 -100%
Will CD Tondela vs. SC Braga end in a draw? Jan 19 $38 −$38 -100%
Rio Ave FC vs. Sport Lisboa e Benfica: O/U 2.5 Jan 19 $103 −$103 -100%
Hornets vs. Nuggets Jan 19 $28 −$24 -86%
Nets vs. Bulls: O/U 219.5 Jan 19 $123 +$30 +25%
Nets vs. Bulls: O/U 222.5 Jan 19 $46 +$37 +81%
Nets vs. Bulls: O/U 223.5 Jan 19 $26 −$6 -23%
Spread: Bulls (-7.5) Jan 19 $37 +$8 +20%
Senators vs. Red Wings: O/U 6.5 Jan 18 $15 −$9 -60%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Germany vs. Paraguay: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 38¢ $39 37m
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-29? SELL Yes 100¢ $100 41m
Brazil vs. Japan: O/U 2.5 SELL Over 100¢ $70 43m
Brazil vs. Japan: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 61¢ $43 1h
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-29? BUY Yes 45¢ $46 1h
Mexico vs. Korea Republic: Korea Republic O/U 0.5 BUY Over 54¢ $27 10d
Mexico vs. Korea Republic: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 29¢ $11 10d
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 20¢ $20 10d
FC Internazionale Milano vs. Arsenal FC: O/U 3.5 SELL Over 97¢ $43 159d
FC Internazionale Milano vs. Arsenal FC: O/U 3.5 SELL Over 97¢ $24 159d
Tottenham Hotspur FC vs. BV Borussia 09 Dortmund: O/U 3.5 SELL Over 7¢ $6 159d
Spread: Paris Saint-Germain FC (-1.5) SELL Paris Saint-Germain FC 3¢ $1 159d
Coventry City FC vs. Millwall FC: O/U 2.5 SELL Over 97¢ $97 159d
FC Internazionale Milano vs. Arsenal FC: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 77¢ $54 159d
Coventry City FC vs. Millwall FC: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 64¢ $64 159d
Tottenham Hotspur FC vs. BV Borussia 09 Dortmund: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 56¢ $45 159d
Tottenham Hotspur FC vs. BV Borussia 09 Dortmund: Both Teams to Score SELL Yes 35¢ $35 159d
Preston North End FC vs. Hull City AFC: O/U 2.5 SELL Over 100¢ $50 159d
Spread: Paris Saint-Germain FC (-1.5) BUY Paris Saint-Germain FC 36¢ $18 159d
Preston North End FC vs. Hull City AFC: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 36¢ $18 159d
Spread: Coventry City FC (-1.5) BUY Coventry City FC 47¢ $16 159d
Spread: Coventry City FC (-1.5) BUY Coventry City FC 47¢ $7 159d
Olympiakós SFP vs. Bayer 04 Leverkusen: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 60¢ $20 159d
Olympiakós SFP vs. Bayer 04 Leverkusen: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 60¢ $10 159d
Tottenham Hotspur FC vs. BV Borussia 09 Dortmund: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 62¢ $62 159d
FK Bodø/Glimt vs. Manchester City FC: O/U 4.5 BUY Over 76¢ $3 160d
FK Bodø/Glimt vs. Manchester City FC: O/U 4.5 BUY Over 76¢ $19 160d
FK Bodø/Glimt vs. Manchester City FC: O/U 4.5 BUY Over 76¢ $3 160d
FK Bodø/Glimt vs. Manchester City FC: O/U 4.5 BUY Over 76¢ $23 160d
FK Bodø/Glimt vs. Manchester City FC: O/U 4.5 BUY Over 72¢ $26 160d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $34.49 · official $34.50 (match) · 1086 history records