Wallet analysis

2026-06-15T17:45:01+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
1F 0x1f24…a4a4 sports 166 markets active 0h ago coverage 12d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialist⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover
Total PnL +$24 (+3%) realized +$65 · open −$41
Gross ROI / mkt -7% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -28% what you keep after slip
Net edge-28%after slip
Net WR42%break-even
Win rate50%75W / 76L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$5per market
Trades / day30.4pace
Fees−$10est.
Kalshi-fit87%portable
Net worth$38now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$9
7 days+$24
14 days−$50
30 days−$50
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 85% −$110
other 11% +$27
world 1% $0
politics 1% −$5
culture 0% −$1
tech 0% $0
crypto 0% −$3
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +42%
net ROI/market (all)-16.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 13 +32.3% +19.7% 62% 46% +30.6%
≤30d 151 -7.2% -16.0% 50% 42% -16.0%
≤90d 151 -7.2% -16.0% 50% 42% -16.0%
all 151 -7.2% -16.0% 50% 42% -16.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover30.4 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -16.0% 42% -16.0%
10% ← realistic here -24.1% 36% -24.1%
15% -31.4% 28% -31.4%
20% -38.1% 25% -38.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 17% · top 2 28% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -8% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
13% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -7% · $-wt -8% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -5% → late -9% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.6 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$3 vs −$4 · ×0.84 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.83 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

12d coverage
Net worth$38
Realized+$65
Unrealized−$41
Win rate (resolved)50%
Wins / losses75 / 76
Est. fees paid−$10
Open positions15
Markets (closed)151 / 166
History coverage12d
Avg bet$5
Trades / day30.4
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit87%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 15 History 151 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30? No 67¢ 68¢ $6 $6 +$0 (+1%)
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 1.5 Under 37¢ 68¢ $3 $5 +$2 (+82%)
Spread: Spain (-1.5) Spain 51¢ 26¢ $9 $5 −$4 (-49%)
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? Yes 82¢ 62¢ $6 $5 −$1 (-24%)
DAI depeg by December 31? No 89¢ 93¢ $3 $3 +$0 (+4%)
Will Donald Trump sign a U.S. x Iran deal by July 31? Yes 100¢ 98¢ $3 $3 −$0 (-2%)
Will "Obsession" 5th Weekend Box Office be between 17m and 19m? Yes 21¢ 17¢ $3 $2 −$1 (-17%)
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 0.5 Over 89¢ 71¢ $3 $2 −$1 (-20%)
Spread: Spain (-2.5) Spain 38¢ $9 $1 −$8 (-85%)
Will Spencer Pratt win the 2026 Los Angeles mayoral election? Yes $6 $1 −$5 (-82%)
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 1.5 Over 92¢ 32¢ $3 $1 −$2 (-65%)
Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-15? Yes $1 $1 −$0 (-5%)
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 3.5 Over 43¢ $12 $1 −$11 (-94%)
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? No $1 $1 −$0 (-37%)
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 2.5 Over 55¢ 10¢ $3 $1 −$2 (-83%)
Spread: Spain (-3.5) Spain 20¢ $6 $0 −$6 (-98%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 69 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Spain vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw? Jun 15 $9 +$1 +10%
Libema Open: Otto Virtanen vs Kamil Majchrzak Jun 15 $12 +$9 +69%
Counter-Strike: G2 vs FUT Esports (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 Jun 10 $3 +$3 +105%
Kansas City Royals vs. Minnesota Twins: O/U 7.5 Jun 10 $3 +$3 +101%
GPT-5.6 released by June 8, 2026? Jun 10 $3 $0 -1%
Ilkley: Darja Vidmanova vs Linda Fruhvirtova Jun 10 $6 +$27 +437%
Roland Garros ATP: Flavio Cobolli vs Alexander Zverev Jun 10 $21 −$12 -56%
Seattle Mariners vs. Baltimore Orioles: O/U 5.5 Jun 08 $3 −$3 -97%
France vs. Northern Ireland: O/U 4.5 Jun 08 $3 $0 +7%
HSBC Championships: Harriet Dart vs Liudmila Samsonova Jun 08 $9 −$6 -65%
Cattolica: Andrea Guerrieri vs Dalibor Svrcina Jun 08 $6 +$3 +56%
Ilkley: Veronika Podrez vs Tatiana Prozorova Jun 08 $3 −$3 -96%
Modena: Jeline Vandromme vs Angela Fita Boluda Jun 08 $3 +$1 +35%
Ilkley: Linda Klimovicova vs Sinja Kraus Jun 08 $3 $0 +11%
Modena: Martina Trevisan vs Jennifer Ruggeri Jun 08 $3 −$3 -96%
Libema Open: Ugo Humbert vs Elias Ymer Jun 08 $3 −$3 -97%
Lyon: Lorenzo Giustino vs Daniel Rincon Jun 08 $3 −$3 -96%
Stuttgart Open: Gauthier Onclin vs Fabian Marozsan Jun 08 $3 +$4 +124%
Libema Open: Marin Cilic vs Denis Shapovalov Jun 08 $9 −$9 -98%
Stuttgart Open: Pierre-Hugues Herbert vs Martin Landaluce Jun 08 $6 −$3 -49%
Cattolica: Michele Ribecai vs Franco Agamenone Jun 08 $3 −$3 -98%
Milwaukee Brewers vs. Athletics Jun 08 $3 −$3 -97%
Libema Open: Daria Snigur vs Paula Badosa Jun 08 $15 −$15 -97%
Modena: Xiyu Wang vs Laura Samson Jun 08 $3 +$1 +31%
Spread: Cleveland Guardians (-1.5) Jun 08 $3 −$3 -97%
Spread: New York Yankees (-1.5) Jun 08 $3 −$3 -98%
Libema Open: Daria Kasatkina vs Robin Montgomery Jun 08 $15 −$9 -59%
San Francisco Giants vs. Chicago Cubs Jun 08 $3 −$3 -97%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-08? Jun 08 $3 −$3 -97%
Denmark vs. Ukraine: O/U 4.5 Jun 08 $3 +$3 +89%
New York Mets vs. San Diego Padres Jun 07 $3 +$2 +61%
New York Mets vs. San Diego Padres: O/U 9.5 Jun 07 $6 −$6 -98%
Washington Nationals vs. Arizona Diamondbacks: O/U 7.5 Jun 07 $3 $0 +8%
San Francisco Giants vs. Chicago Cubs: O/U 8.5 Jun 07 $3 −$3 -98%
Will Norway win on 2026-06-07? Jun 07 $3 +$1 +20%
Cleveland Guardians vs. Texas Rangers Jun 07 $3 +$2 +61%
Kansas City Royals vs. Minnesota Twins Jun 07 $3 $0 +3%
Morocco vs. Norway: O/U 1.5 Jun 07 $6 −$3 -49%
Croatia vs. Slovenia: O/U 2.5 Jun 07 $3 +$3 +89%
Los Angeles Angels vs. Los Angeles Dodgers Jun 07 $3 −$3 -97%
Spread: Kansas City Royals (-4.5) Jun 07 $3 −$3 -98%
Athletics vs. Houston Astros Jun 07 $3 −$3 -96%
Makarska: Darja Semenistaja vs Maria Timofeeva Jun 07 $9 +$5 +53%
Foggia: Leyre Romero Gormaz vs Tyra Caterina Grant Jun 07 $18 −$12 -65%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-07? Jun 07 $3 −$3 -98%
Croatia vs. Slovenia: O/U 1.5 Jun 07 $3 −$3 -97%
Tampa Bay Rays vs. Miami Marlins Jun 07 $3 −$3 -98%
Baltimore Orioles vs. Toronto Blue Jays Jun 07 $3 −$3 -99%
HSBC Championships, Qualification: Antonia Ruzic vs Storm Hunter Jun 07 $3 −$3 -96%
Spread: Toronto Blue Jays (-1.5) Jun 07 $3 −$3 -98%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Donald Trump sign a U.S. x Iran deal by July 31? BUY Yes 100¢ $3 13m
Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes $1 17m
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? SELL No 26¢ $4 23m
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 0.5 BUY Over 89¢ $3 33m
Spread: Spain (-1.5) BUY Spain 52¢ $3 40m
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 79¢ $3 51m
Spread: Spain (-1.5) BUY Spain 49¢ $3 52m
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 1.5 BUY Under 37¢ $3 54m
Spread: Spain (-1.5) BUY Spain 51¢ $3 55m
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? BUY No 21¢ $3 56m
Spread: Spain (-2.5) BUY Spain 33¢ $3 1h
Spread: Spain (-3.5) BUY Spain 16¢ $3 1h
Spread: Spain (-2.5) BUY Spain 32¢ $3 1h
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 27¢ $3 1h
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 86¢ $3 1h
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 55¢ $3 1h
Spread: Spain (-3.5) BUY Spain 27¢ $3 1h
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 49¢ $3 1h
Will Spain vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw? SELL Yes $2 1h
Will Spain vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw? SELL Yes $8 1h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? BUY No $1 1h
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 54¢ $3 1h
Will Spain vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw? BUY Yes $3 2h
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 56¢ $3 2h
Will Spain vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw? BUY Yes $6 2h
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30? BUY No 70¢ $3 4h
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30? BUY No 65¢ $3 5h
Will "Obsession" 5th Weekend Box Office be between 17m and 19m? BUY Yes 21¢ $3 5h
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 92¢ $3 5h
Spread: Spain (-2.5) BUY Spain 56¢ $3 6h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $38.03 · official $38.03 (match) · 384 history records