Wallet analysis

2026-06-23T15:55:34+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
1F 0x1f25…21a4 sports 124 markets active 10h ago coverage 166d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$1,257 (+1%) realized +$1,277 · open −$20
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -7% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -19% what you keep after slip
Net edge-19%after slip
Net WR36%break-even
Win rate45%52W / 64L
Whale WR66%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$1,109per market
Trades / day1.6pace
Fees−$88est.
Kalshi-fit63%portable
Net worth$1,825now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$1,021
7 days+$1,348
14 days+$1,099
30 days+$1,099
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 42% +$6,331
sports 31% +$2,085
crypto 16% −$8,179
politics 8% +$952
finance 2% +$24
world 1% −$924
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +36%
net ROI/market (all)-16.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 43 +19.8% +8.4% 44% 42% +1.6%
≤30d 45 +16.6% +5.5% 42% 40% -1.3%
≤90d 49 +8.8% -1.5% 39% 37% -9.5%
all 116 -7.3% -16.1% 45% 36% -9.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.6 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -16.1% 36% -9.3%
10% -24.1% 31% -18.0%
15% -31.5% 27% -25.9%
20% -38.2% 22% -33.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 25% · top 2 32% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
17% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -7% · $-wt +0% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR 66% (≥$1,009) strong on big bets
Persistence
early -17% → late +2% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.7 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$699 vs −$563 · ×1.24 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×1.01 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $700 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

166d coverage
Net worth$1,825
Realized+$1,277
Unrealized−$20
Win rate (resolved)45%
Wins / losses52 / 64
Whale WR (big bets)66%
Est. fees paid−$88
Open positions8
Markets (closed)116 / 124
History coverage166d
Avg bet$1,109
Trades / day1.6
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit63%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 8 History 116 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-23? Yes 85¢ 86¢ $425 $428 +$2 (+1%)
Will England win on 2026-06-23? Yes 82¢ 82¢ $410 $412 +$2 (+1%)
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-23? Yes 66¢ 66¢ $330 $328 −$2 (-1%)
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-23? Yes 64¢ 64¢ $320 $318 −$2 (-1%)
Will Colombia vs. DR Congo end in a draw? Yes 24¢ 24¢ $120 $118 −$2 (-2%)
Will Panama vs. Croatia end in a draw? Yes 23¢ 22¢ $115 $108 −$8 (-7%)
Will England vs. Ghana end in a draw? Yes 13¢ 12¢ $65 $62 −$2 (-4%)
Will Portugal vs. Uzbekistan end in a draw? Yes 12¢ 10¢ $60 $52 −$8 (-12%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 39 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Switzerland vs. Canada end in a draw? Jun 23 $165 −$15 -9%
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-24? Jun 23 $206 −$11 -5%
Will Norway win on 2026-06-22? Jun 23 $221 +$279 +126%
Will Algeria win on 2026-06-22? Jun 23 $327 +$173 +53%
Will France vs. Iraq end in a draw? Jun 22 $69 −$66 -96%
Will Iraq win on 2026-06-22? Jun 22 $2 −$2 -96%
Will Austria win on 2026-06-22? Jun 22 $5 −$5 -96%
Will Argentina vs. Austria end in a draw? Jun 22 $52 −$50 -97%
Will Jordan vs. Algeria end in a draw? Jun 22 $119 −$115 -97%
Will Norway vs. Senegal end in a draw? Jun 22 $144 −$140 -97%
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-21? Jun 22 $249 +$151 +60%
Will Uruguay vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw? Jun 22 $119 +$381 +321%
Will Spain win on 2026-06-21? Jun 22 $451 +$49 +11%
Will Belgium vs. IR Iran end in a draw? Jun 22 $109 +$391 +361%
Will New Zealand vs. Egypt end in a draw? Jun 21 $99 −$96 -97%
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $342 −$335 -98%
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $347 −$340 -98%
Will Spain vs. Saudi Arabia end in a draw? Jun 21 $47 −$45 -96%
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $193 +$107 +56%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-20? Jun 21 $297 +$203 +69%
Will Ecuador vs. Curaçao end in a draw? Jun 21 $52 +$448 +864%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? Jun 21 $332 +$168 +51%
Will Tunisia vs. Japan end in a draw? Jun 20 $73 −$71 -97%
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $441 −$435 -99%
Will Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire end in a draw? Jun 20 $109 −$105 -97%
Will Netherlands vs. Sweden end in a draw? Jun 20 $124 −$120 -97%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $614 +$43 +7%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $890 +$394 +44%
Will Brazil vs. Haiti end in a draw? Jun 19 $56 −$40 -72%
Will Scotland vs. Morocco end in a draw? Jun 19 $420 −$275 -66%
Will United States vs. Australia end in a draw? Jun 19 $222 −$191 -86%
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? Jun 19 $623 +$275 +44%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-18? Jun 19 $48 +$52 +107%
Will Canada win on 2026-06-18? Jun 19 $254 +$79 +31%
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-18? Jun 19 $643 +$357 +56%
Will Mexico vs. Korea Republic end in a draw? Jun 18 $31 −$30 -97%
Will Canada vs. Qatar end in a draw? Jun 18 $61 −$59 -97%
Will Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina end in a draw? Jun 18 $248 −$240 -97%
Will Czechia vs. South Africa end in a draw? Jun 18 $268 +$732 +273%
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $543 −$530 -98%
Will Portugal vs. DR Congo end in a draw? Jun 18 $176 +$824 +468%
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $783 −$770 -98%
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $673 +$327 +48%
Will France vs. Senegal end in a draw? Jun 16 $227 −$220 -97%
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 16 $1,009 −$29 -3%
Will Bolivia qualify for the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Mar 31 $200 −$200 -100%
Will the Iranian regime fall by March 31? Mar 29 $100 −$96 -96%
Will the Iranian regime fall by April 30? Mar 29 $500 −$375 -75%
Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30? Mar 29 $1,000 −$434 -43%
Will Iran close the Strait of Hormuz by March 31? Mar 07 $53 −$53 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Colombia vs. DR Congo end in a draw? BUY Yes 24¢ $124 9h
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-23? BUY Yes 64¢ $327 9h
Will Panama vs. Croatia end in a draw? BUY Yes 23¢ $119 9h
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-23? BUY Yes 66¢ $337 9h
Will England vs. Ghana end in a draw? BUY Yes 13¢ $67 9h
Will England win on 2026-06-23? BUY Yes 82¢ $416 9h
Will Portugal vs. Uzbekistan end in a draw? BUY Yes 12¢ $62 9h
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-23? BUY Yes 85¢ $431 9h
Will Panama vs. Croatia end in a draw? SELL Yes 22¢ $106 9h
Will Switzerland vs. Canada end in a draw? SELL Yes 31¢ $150 9h
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-24? SELL Yes 40¢ $194 9h
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-23? SELL Yes 65¢ $318 9h
Will France vs. Iraq end in a draw? BUY Yes 2¢ $17 18h
Will Panama vs. Croatia end in a draw? BUY Yes 23¢ $119 21h
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-23? BUY Yes 64¢ $327 21h
Will Switzerland vs. Canada end in a draw? BUY Yes 32¢ $165 21h
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-24? BUY Yes 40¢ $206 21h
Will Iraq win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 3¢ $2 21h
Will Austria win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 3¢ $5 21h
Will France vs. Iraq end in a draw? BUY Yes 8¢ $52 21h
Will Argentina vs. Austria end in a draw? BUY Yes 16¢ $52 21h
Will Jordan vs. Algeria end in a draw? BUY Yes 23¢ $119 21h
Will Algeria win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 64¢ $327 21h
Will Norway vs. Senegal end in a draw? BUY Yes 28¢ $144 21h
Will Norway win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 43¢ $221 21h
Will New Zealand vs. Egypt end in a draw? BUY Yes 24¢ $99 2d
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 61¢ $249 2d
Will Uruguay vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw? BUY Yes 23¢ $119 2d
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 67¢ $342 2d
Will Belgium vs. IR Iran end in a draw? BUY Yes 21¢ $109 2d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $1,825.00 · official $1,825.00 (match) · 308 history records