Wallet analysis

2026-06-24T02:04:51+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
1F 0x1f27…6bc8 other 56 markets active 2h ago coverage 472d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL +$8 (+1%) realized +$8 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt -2% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -11% what you keep after slip
Net edge-11%after slip
Net WR5%break-even
Win rate45%25W / 31L
Drawdown17%max
Avg bet$14per market
Trades / day0.4pace
Kalshi-fit54%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$0
7 days−$0
14 days−$0
30 days+$4
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 38% −$1
world 30% +$4
politics 10% −$1
crypto 6% $0
economics 5% +$1
tech 4% $0
sports 3% +$3
weather 2% $0
culture 2% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +5%
net ROI/market (all)-10.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 2 -0.6% -10.0% 0% 0% -10.3%
≤30d 10 +1.6% -8.1% 40% 10% -8.3%
≤90d 10 +1.6% -8.1% 40% 10% -8.3%
all 56 -1.5% -10.9% 45% 5% -8.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.4 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -10.9% 5% -8.7%
10% -19.4% 0% -17.4%
15% -27.2% 0% -25.4%
20% -34.4% 0% -32.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 41% · top 2 65% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
88% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -2% · $-wt +1% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -4% → late +1% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.4 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$0 · ×2.09 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×2.9 per $1 lost it wins $2.9
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

472d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$8
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)45%
Wins / losses25 / 31
Open positions0
Markets (closed)56 / 56
History coverage472d
Avg bet$14
Trades / day0.4
Drawdown17%
Kalshi-fit54%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 56 Trades
no open positions
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Ukraine recapture Crimean territory by December 31, 2026? Jun 24 $30 $0 -1%
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 23 $9 $0 +0%
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? Jun 03 $30 $0 +0%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 02 $27 +$5 +17%
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? Jun 01 $29 $0 +0%
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? May 31 $25 −$1 -3%
US strike on Cuba by December 31? May 30 $29 −$1 -2%
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? May 30 $12 +$1 +4%
Will Alireza Arafi be head of state in Iran end of 2026? May 27 $56 $0 +0%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? May 25 $29 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin reach $1,000,000 by December 31, 2025? Jul 14 $16 $0 -0%
Fed decreases interest rates by 50+ bps after July 2025 meeting? Jul 14 $12 $0 -0%
Will Elon tweet 225–239 times July 11–18? Jul 14 $12 $0 +1%
Will Ferrari be the 2025 Constructors Champion? Jul 14 $1 $0 -8%
Will Achraf Hakimi win the 2025 Ballon d'Or? Jul 13 $13 $0 +0%
Will Superman be the top grossing movie of 2025? Jul 13 $2 $0 +4%
Will the Green Bay Packers win Super Bowl 2026? Jul 13 $14 $0 +0%
Will the Chicago Cubs win the 2025 World Series? Jul 13 $1 $0 +0%
Will Elon tweet 90–104 times July 11–18? Jul 13 $15 $0 -0%
Will Manfred Reyes Villa win the 2025 Bolivia presidential election? Jul 12 $18 $0 -0%
Will Xi Jinping be the first leader out in 2025? Jul 12 $12 $0 -0%
Will the US confirm that aliens exist in 2025? Jul 12 $15 $0 +0%
Will McLaren be the 2025 Constructors Champion? Jul 12 $16 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $20,000 by December 31, 2025? Jul 11 $15 $0 +0%
Will Dan Trifu be the next Mayor of Bucharest? Jul 11 $16 $0 +0%
Will the San Diego Padres win the 2025 World Series? Jul 11 $14 $0 -0%
Will Donald Trump win Nobel Peace Prize in 2025? Jul 11 $11 $0 +0%
Will the San Francisco Giants win the 2025 National League Championshi Jul 11 $2 $0 +8%
Will Remco Evenepoel win the Tour de France 2025? Jul 10 $16 $0 -0%
Will the Milwaukee Brewers win the 2025 World Series? Jul 10 $16 $0 -0%
Will the Boston Red Sox win the 2025 World Series? Jul 10 $15 $0 +0%
Will Trump deport 750,000-1,000,000 people? Jul 10 $15 $0 +0%
Will Kylian Mbappe win the 2025 Ballon d'Or? Jul 09 $14 $0 +0%
Will Mohamed Salah win the 2025 Ballon d'Or? Jul 09 $1 $0 -17%
Will the St. Louis Cardinals win the 2025 World Series? Jul 09 $10 $0 +0%
Will the Toronto Blue Jays win the 2025 World Series? Jul 09 $2 $0 +1%
Will the New York Mets win the 2025 World Series? Jul 09 $29 $0 +0%
Will the Seattle Mariners win the 2025 World Series? Jul 08 $16 $0 +0%
Will 8+ Fed rate cuts happen in 2025? Jul 01 $13 +$1 +10%
Will Atletico Madrid win the FIFA Club World Cup? Jun 24 $0 $0 -100%
Will Ahn Cheol-soo be elected the next president of South Korea? Jun 05 $2 $0 +1%
Will the Dallas Stars win the 2025 President’s Trophy? Apr 14 $3 −$1 -36%
Will the Minnesota Twins win the 2025 World Series? Apr 08 $2 $0 +9%
Fed decreases interest rates by 50+ bps after June 2025 meeting? Apr 07 $14 $0 +0%
Will federal spending decrease by more than $2t between Q4 2024 and Q2 Apr 07 $13 $0 +0%
Will Trump pardon Rudy Giuliani in his first 100 days? Apr 07 $13 $0 +1%
Will Trump sell 10k-25k Gold Cards in 2025? Apr 05 $15 $0 -1%
Will DeepSeek have the top AI model on April 30? Apr 03 $15 $0 +1%
Will Borussia Dortmund win the UEFA Champions League? Apr 01 $15 $0 +0%
Will Marcel Ciolacu advance to the Romanian Presidential Election Runo Apr 01 $1 $0 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Ukraine recapture Crimean territory by December 31, 2026? SELL No 88¢ $30 1h
Will Ukraine recapture Crimean territory by December 31, 2026? BUY No 89¢ $30 5h
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL Yes 13¢ $9 12h
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY Yes 13¢ $4 13h
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY Yes 13¢ $2 13h
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY Yes 13¢ $3 13h
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? SELL No 99¢ $30 20d
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? BUY No 99¢ $30 20d
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? SELL No 98¢ $3 22d
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? SELL Yes 36¢ $24 23d
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? BUY Yes 37¢ $25 23d
US strike on Cuba by December 31? SELL No 49¢ $25 24d
US strike on Cuba by December 31? SELL No 49¢ $3 24d
US strike on Cuba by December 31? BUY No 51¢ $7 24d
US strike on Cuba by December 31? BUY No 50¢ $22 24d
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? SELL Yes 22¢ $8 24d
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? BUY Yes 21¢ $8 24d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra SELL No 75¢ $5 25d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra SELL No 75¢ $5 25d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra SELL No 75¢ $22 25d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra BUY No 64¢ $27 25d
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? SELL No 96¢ $26 25d
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? BUY No 96¢ $29 26d
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? SELL No 76¢ $5 26d
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? BUY No 74¢ $4 26d
Will Alireza Arafi be head of state in Iran end of 2026? SELL No 98¢ $30 27d
Will Alireza Arafi be head of state in Iran end of 2026? BUY No 98¢ $30 27d
Will Alireza Arafi be head of state in Iran end of 2026? SELL No 98¢ $27 28d
Will Alireza Arafi be head of state in Iran end of 2026? BUY No 98¢ $26 28d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes 57¢ $29 29d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 181 history records