Wallet analysis

2026-06-23T17:20:27+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
1F 0x1f27…fc32 other 158 markets active 0h ago coverage 159d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$850 (-9%) realized −$850 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +8% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -3% what you keep after slip
Net edge-3%after slip
Net WR28%break-even
Win rate30%48W / 110L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$61per market
Trades / day1.6pace
Fees−$33est.
Kalshi-fit48%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$11
7 days−$11
14 days−$69
30 days−$568
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 55% −$387
other 45% −$475
crypto 0% −$3
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +28%
net ROI/market (all)-2.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 5 -7.0% -15.9% 40% 40% -14.8%
≤30d 14 -19.5% -27.2% 36% 36% -39.9%
≤90d 48 -23.9% -31.1% 35% 35% -26.0%
all 158 +7.6% -2.6% 30% 28% -17.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.6 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -2.6% 28% -17.9%
10% -12.0% 22% -25.8%
15% -20.5% 17% -32.9%
20% -28.3% 13% -39.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 13% · top 2 21% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -18% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
6% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +8% · $-wt -9% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -21% → late +37% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.4 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$44 vs −$27 · ×1.61 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×0.71 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

159d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$850
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)30%
Wins / losses48 / 110
Est. fees paid−$33
Open positions0
Markets (closed)158 / 158
History coverage159d
Avg bet$61
Trades / day1.6
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit48%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 158 Trades
no open positions (73 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-23? Jun 23 $78 +$12 +15%
Will Satoshi move any Bitcoin in 2026? Jun 23 $10 −$3 -28%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-27? Jun 23 $26 −$1 -4%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? Jun 22 $30 +$15 +48%
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $50 −$34 -67%
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $145 −$58 -40%
Knicks vs. Spurs Jun 06 $5 +$10 +197%
Knicks vs. Spurs Jun 04 $391 −$387 -99%
Thunder vs. Spurs Jun 01 $430 +$278 +65%
Spurs vs. Thunder May 27 $270 −$264 -98%
Will Inter Miami CF win on 2026-05-24? May 25 $82 +$32 +40%
Thunder vs. Spurs May 25 $136 −$132 -97%
Will Inter Miami CF vs. Philadelphia Union end in a draw? May 25 $26 −$25 -98%
Will Philadelphia Union win on 2026-05-24? May 24 $12 −$12 -98%
Will Valencia CF win on 2026-05-23? May 24 $10 +$25 +250%
Will FC Bayern München win on 2026-05-23? May 24 $78 +$28 +36%
Will Valencia CF vs. FC Barcelona end in a draw? May 23 $7 −$7 -98%
Will FC Bayern München vs. VfB Stuttgart end in a draw? May 23 $5 −$5 -98%
Will FC Barcelona win on 2026-05-23? May 23 $20 −$20 -98%
Thunder vs. Spurs May 23 $324 −$221 -68%
Cavaliers vs. Knicks May 23 $71 +$32 +46%
Will VfB Stuttgart win on 2026-05-23? May 23 $13 −$13 -97%
Will Al Nassr Saudi Club vs. Damac Saudi Club end in a draw? May 21 $4 −$4 -97%
Will Damac Saudi Club win on 2026-05-21? May 21 $12 −$11 -97%
Spurs vs. Thunder May 21 $317 +$86 +27%
Will Chelsea FC win on 2026-05-19? May 20 $46 +$57 +124%
Will AFC Bournemouth vs. Manchester City FC end in a draw? May 20 $23 +$79 +344%
Will Tottenham Hotspur FC win on 2026-05-19? May 19 $30 −$29 -98%
Will Arsenal FC win on 2026-05-18? May 19 $91 +$10 +11%
Spurs vs. Thunder May 19 $34 +$68 +197%
Cavaliers vs. Knicks May 19 $33 −$32 -98%
Will AFC Bournemouth win on 2026-05-19? May 19 $19 −$19 -98%
Cavaliers vs. Pistons May 18 $169 −$67 -40%
Will FC Barcelona vs. Real Betis Balompié end in a draw? May 17 $12 −$12 -98%
Will Manchester City FC win on 2026-05-16? May 17 $61 +$44 +73%
Will Al Hilal Saudi Club win on 2026-05-16? May 17 $89 +$24 +27%
Will Chelsea FC vs. Manchester City FC end in a draw? May 16 $20 −$20 -98%
Will Real Salt Lake win on 2026-05-13? May 16 $59 +$43 +73%
Will Real Madrid CF win on 2026-05-14? May 16 $86 +$25 +29%
Will Chelsea FC win on 2026-05-16? May 16 $20 −$20 -98%
Will NEOM SC win on 2026-05-16? May 15 $4 −$4 -97%
Will Al Hilal Saudi Club vs. NEOM SC end in a draw? May 15 $15 −$15 -98%
Will Real Oviedo win on 2026-05-14? May 14 $9 −$9 -97%
Will Real Madrid CF vs. Real Oviedo end in a draw? May 14 $16 −$15 -98%
Will Houston Dynamo win on 2026-05-13? May 14 $21 −$20 -98%
Will Real Salt Lake vs. Houston Dynamo end in a draw? May 14 $25 −$24 -98%
Will Burnley FC win on 2026-05-18? May 14 $4 −$4 -97%
Will Arsenal FC vs. Burnley FC end in a draw? May 14 $8 −$8 -97%
Will CA Osasuna vs. Real Madrid CF end in a draw? Feb 21 $49 +$47 +96%
Will Levante UD win on 2026-02-22? Feb 21 $3 $0 -17%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-23? SELL Yes 99¢ $90 0m
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-23? BUY Yes 86¢ $78 1h
Will Satoshi move any Bitcoin in 2026? SELL Yes 7¢ $7 1h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-27? SELL Yes 81¢ $25 1h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? SELL Yes 95¢ $22 22h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-27? BUY Yes 83¢ $26 43h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 65¢ $30 44h
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-21? SELL Yes 23¢ $17 44h
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 68¢ $50 46h
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? SELL Yes 57¢ $88 7d
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 93¢ $145 8d
Knicks vs. Spurs BUY Knicks 33¢ $5 17d
Knicks vs. Spurs BUY Spurs 64¢ $196 19d
Knicks vs. Spurs BUY Spurs 64¢ $195 20d
Thunder vs. Spurs BUY Spurs 60¢ $430 25d
Spurs vs. Thunder SELL Spurs 21¢ $2 27d
Spurs vs. Thunder BUY Spurs 38¢ $156 28d
Thunder vs. Spurs SELL Thunder 12¢ $2 29d
Spurs vs. Thunder BUY Spurs 37¢ $38 29d
Will Inter Miami CF vs. Philadelphia Union end in a draw? BUY Yes 53¢ $10 29d
Will Inter Miami CF vs. Philadelphia Union end in a draw? BUY Yes 19¢ $15 29d
Will Philadelphia Union win on 2026-05-24? BUY Yes 13¢ $12 29d
Will Inter Miami CF win on 2026-05-24? BUY Yes 71¢ $82 29d
Thunder vs. Spurs BUY Thunder 44¢ $136 30d
Will Valencia CF vs. FC Barcelona end in a draw? BUY Yes 24¢ $5 30d
Will Valencia CF vs. FC Barcelona end in a draw? BUY Yes 26¢ $2 30d
Will FC Bayern München vs. VfB Stuttgart end in a draw? BUY Yes 16¢ $5 30d
Will Valencia CF win on 2026-05-23? BUY Yes 28¢ $10 30d
Will FC Barcelona win on 2026-05-23? BUY Yes 50¢ $20 30d
Will VfB Stuttgart win on 2026-05-23? BUY Yes 11¢ $13 31d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 323 history records