Wallet analysis

2026-06-23T14:35:13+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
1F 0x1f27…a61c other 51 markets active 2h ago coverage 368d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL −$1 (-0%) realized −$1 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt +0% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -9% what you keep after slip
Net edge-9%after slip
Net WR2%break-even
Win rate30%15W / 35L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$21per market
Trades / day0.4pace
Kalshi-fit69%portable
Net worth$27now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days$0
14 days$0
30 days−$2
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 30% −$1
other 28% $0
politics 20% $0
crypto 8% $0
finance 4% $0
culture 3% $0
sports 3% $0
tech 2% $0
economics 2% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +2%
net ROI/market (all)-9.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d no closed markets
≤30d 10 -0.4% -9.9% 30% 0% -9.9%
≤90d 10 -0.4% -9.9% 30% 0% -9.9%
all 50 +0.2% -9.4% 30% 2% -9.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.4 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.4% 2% -9.6%
10% -18.1% 0% -18.2%
15% -26.0% 0% -26.1%
20% -33.2% 0% -33.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 26% · top 2 46% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
93% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +0% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +0% → late +0% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.4 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$0 · ×0.96 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.8 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

368d coverage
Net worth$27
Realized−$1
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)30%
Wins / losses15 / 35
Open positions1
Markets (closed)50 / 51
History coverage368d
Avg bet$21
Trades / day0.4
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit69%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 50 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Israeli forces withdraw from beyond the Litani River by June 30? No 91¢ 92¢ $26 $27 +$0 (+1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Jun 04 $27 $0 +0%
US strike on Cuba by December 31? Jun 03 $54 −$1 -1%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? Jun 03 $29 $0 +0%
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? Jun 02 $81 −$1 -1%
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by June 30? Jun 01 $17 $0 -0%
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by December 31? May 31 $26 $0 +0%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra May 31 $28 $0 +1%
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? May 29 $55 $0 +0%
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by May 31, 2026? May 28 $26 $0 +1%
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? May 26 $28 −$1 -4%
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the first leader out in 2025? Oct 24 $3 $0 -7%
Will the Houston Astros win the 2025 World Series? Aug 20 $8 $0 +1%
Will Bitcoin dip to $90K in August? Aug 20 $19 $0 -0%
Will the San Francisco 49ers win Super Bowl 2026? Aug 20 $7 $0 +0%
Will the Orlando Magic win the 2026 NBA Finals? Aug 20 $7 $0 +0%
Will Lilo & Stitch be the top grossing movie of 2025? Aug 19 $7 $0 +0%
Will Conor McGregor win the Irish Presidential Election? Aug 19 $5 $0 +0%
Will Marco Rubio win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Aug 19 $9 $0 -0%
Will the Detroit Tigers win the 2025 World Series? Aug 19 $5 $0 +0%
Will Ousmane Dembele win the 2025 Ballon d'Or? Aug 18 $8 $0 -1%
Will 2025 be the hottest year on record? Aug 18 $7 $0 +0%
Will Andy Beshear win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Aug 18 $13 $0 -0%
Will Glenn Youngkin win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Aug 18 $7 $0 -0%
Will Elon tweet 475–499 times August 15–August 22? Aug 17 $7 $0 +1%
Will OpenAi have the top AI model on August 31? Aug 17 $3 $0 +16%
Will the Washington Commanders win Super Bowl 2026? Aug 17 $46 $0 +0%
Will the Houston Texans win Super Bowl 2026? Aug 17 $7 $0 +0%
Will the US confirm that aliens exist in 2025? Aug 17 $29 $0 +0%
Will Andrew Cuomo win the 2025 NYC mayoral election? Aug 17 $5 $0 +0%
Will Frances Black win the Irish Presidential Election? Aug 16 $44 $0 +0%
Will any candidate win outright in 1st round of Bolivia Election? Aug 16 $23 $0 +0%
Will Frances Fitzgerald win the Irish Presidential Election? Aug 16 $20 $0 +0%
Will the San Antonio Spurs win the 2026 NBA Finals? Aug 16 $22 $0 +0%
Will the Milwaukee Brewers win the 2025 World Series? Aug 15 $6 $0 -1%
Will Josh Shapiro win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Aug 15 $19 $0 +1%
Will Elon tweet 410–424 times August 8–August 15? Aug 15 $22 +$1 +3%
Will the 10-year Treasury yield hit 5.7% in 2025? Aug 13 $19 $0 -0%
Will McLaren be the 2025 Constructors Champion? Aug 13 $43 $0 +0%
Will Trump meet with Elon Musk in August? Aug 13 $22 $0 +0%
Will the Denver Broncos win Super Bowl 2026? Aug 12 $22 $0 -0%
Will Marco Rubio leave the Trump administration in 2025? Aug 11 $22 $0 +0%
Will Oscar Piastri be the 2025 Drivers Champion? Aug 11 $6 $0 -1%
Will Avatar 3 be the top grossing movie of 2025? Aug 10 $22 $0 -0%
Will Donald Trump win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Aug 10 $22 $0 +0%
2025 June hottest on record? Aug 10 $22 $0 +1%
Will Ethereum reach $3000 in June? Jun 23 $22 $0 +1%
Will Bitcoin reach $115K in June? Jun 22 $22 $0 -0%
Will Trump announce Judy Shelton as next Fed Chair? Jun 22 $22 $0 -0%
Will Elon and DOGE cut between $200-250b in federal spending in 2025? Jun 21 $22 $0 +0%
Will Alexis Ohanian buy TikTok before July? Jun 21 $23 $0 -1%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Israeli forces withdraw from beyond the Litani River by June 30? BUY No 91¢ $26 1h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL No 74¢ $27 19d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY No 74¢ $27 19d
US strike on Cuba by December 31? SELL Yes 48¢ $26 19d
US strike on Cuba by December 31? BUY Yes 48¢ $26 19d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? SELL No 51¢ $29 20d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? BUY No 51¢ $29 20d
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? SELL No 99¢ $29 21d
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? BUY No 98¢ $29 21d
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by June 30? SELL No 96¢ $17 22d
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by June 30? BUY No 96¢ $17 22d
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by December 31? SELL No 80¢ $6 23d
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by December 31? SELL No 80¢ $20 23d
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by December 31? BUY No 80¢ $26 23d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra SELL No 95¢ $28 23d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra BUY No 94¢ $28 23d
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? SELL No 97¢ $11 23d
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? SELL No 97¢ $16 23d
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? BUY No 97¢ $26 23d
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? SELL No 96¢ $29 25d
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? BUY No 96¢ $29 25d
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? SELL No 96¢ $26 25d
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? BUY No 96¢ $26 25d
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by May 31, 2026? SELL No 94¢ $10 26d
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by May 31, 2026? SELL No 94¢ $16 26d
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by May 31, 2026? BUY No 93¢ $26 26d
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? SELL No 95¢ $26 26d
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? BUY No 97¢ $26 26d
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? SELL No 68¢ $26 27d
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? BUY No 71¢ $2 28d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $26.68 · official $26.68 (match) · 165 history records