Wallet analysis

2026-06-29T03:18:43+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
1F 0x1f28…393a crypto 83 markets active 0h ago coverage 2d
BOTnot copyable crypto specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover
✗ bot/MM pace (100 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ only 2d of captured history — unreliable✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$20 (+1%) realized +$20 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +4% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -20% what you keep after slip
Net edge-20%after slip
Net WR39%break-even
Win rate81%67W / 16L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$21per market
Trades / day100.1pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 2d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 100% −$70
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (100 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +39%
net ROI/market (all)-6.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 83 +3.7% -6.2% 81% 39% -12.7%
≤30d 83 +3.7% -6.2% 81% 39% -12.7%
≤90d 83 +3.7% -6.2% 81% 39% -12.7%
all 83 +3.7% -6.2% 81% 39% -12.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover100.1 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -6.2% 39% -12.7%
10% ← realistic here -15.1% 24% -21.1%
15% -23.3% 17% -28.7%
20% -30.9% 8% -35.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 18% · top 2 35% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -4% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
52% wins margin < slip thin win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +4% · $-wt -4% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +8% → late -0% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.7 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$4 vs −$21 · ×0.19 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.79 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

2d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$20
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)81%
Wins / losses67 / 16
Open positions0
Markets (closed)83 / 83
History coverage2d
Avg bet$21
Trades / day100.1
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 83 Trades
no open positions (3 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 11:00PM-11:15PM ET Jun 29 $40 +$1 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 10:45PM-11:00PM ET Jun 29 $20 +$5 +26%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 10:30PM-10:45PM ET Jun 29 $10 +$9 +86%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 10:15PM-10:30PM ET Jun 29 $71 −$31 -43%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 10:00PM-10:15PM ET Jun 29 $10 +$2 +20%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 9:30PM-9:45PM ET Jun 29 $40 +$5 +12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 9:15PM-9:30PM ET Jun 29 $40 +$2 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 9:00PM-9:15PM ET Jun 29 $10 +$4 +40%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 8:45PM-9:00PM ET Jun 29 $10 +$4 +36%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 8:30PM-8:45PM ET Jun 29 $40 −$39 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 8:15PM-8:30PM ET Jun 29 $40 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 8:00PM-8:15PM ET Jun 29 $40 −$16 -40%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 7:00PM-7:15PM ET Jun 28 $31 −$30 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 6:45PM-7:00PM ET Jun 28 $41 +$47 +114%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 6:15PM-6:30PM ET Jun 28 $31 −$30 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 5:15PM-5:30PM ET Jun 28 $10 $0 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 4:45PM-5:00PM ET Jun 28 $10 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 2:45PM-3:00PM ET Jun 28 $20 +$2 +9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 2:30PM-2:45PM ET Jun 28 $20 +$2 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 2:15PM-2:30PM ET Jun 28 $10 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 1:15PM-1:30PM ET Jun 28 $10 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 1:00PM-1:15PM ET Jun 28 $10 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 11:15AM-11:30AM ET Jun 28 $10 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 11:00AM-11:15AM ET Jun 28 $10 +$4 +42%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 10:15AM-10:30AM ET Jun 28 $10 +$1 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 9:30AM-9:45AM ET Jun 28 $20 +$4 +21%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 8:00AM-8:15AM ET Jun 28 $31 −$31 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 8:15AM-8:30AM ET Jun 28 $10 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 7:45AM-8:00AM ET Jun 28 $10 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 7:30AM-7:45AM ET Jun 28 $20 +$3 +14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 7:15AM-7:30AM ET Jun 28 $10 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 7:00AM-7:15AM ET Jun 28 $10 −$9 -92%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 6:45AM-7:00AM ET Jun 28 $20 +$3 +14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 6:30AM-6:45AM ET Jun 28 $20 −$9 -46%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 6:15AM-6:30AM ET Jun 28 $20 +$1 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 6:00AM-6:15AM ET Jun 28 $40 −$14 -36%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 5:45AM-6:00AM ET Jun 28 $20 +$1 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 5:30AM-5:45AM ET Jun 28 $20 +$6 +28%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 5:15AM-5:30AM ET Jun 28 $20 +$6 +30%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 5:00AM-5:15AM ET Jun 28 $10 +$9 +90%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 4:45AM-5:00AM ET Jun 28 $20 +$4 +20%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 4:30AM-4:45AM ET Jun 28 $20 +$1 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 4:15AM-4:30AM ET Jun 28 $20 +$5 +23%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 4:00AM-4:15AM ET Jun 28 $10 +$1 +9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 3:45AM-4:00AM ET Jun 28 $10 +$7 +70%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 3:30AM-3:45AM ET Jun 28 $20 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 3:00AM-3:15AM ET Jun 28 $20 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 2:45AM-3:00AM ET Jun 28 $20 +$1 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 2:30AM-2:45AM ET Jun 28 $20 +$4 +19%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 2:15AM-2:30AM ET Jun 28 $51 −$29 -57%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 11:00PM-11:15PM ET BUY Up 99¢ $30 9m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 11:00PM-11:15PM ET BUY Up 97¢ $10 11m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 10:45PM-11:00PM ET BUY Down 88¢ $10 19m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 10:45PM-11:00PM ET BUY Down 70¢ $10 26m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 10:30PM-10:45PM ET BUY Up 52¢ $10 41m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 10:15PM-10:30PM ET BUY Up 99¢ $30 54m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 10:15PM-10:30PM ET BUY Up 97¢ $10 56m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 10:15PM-10:30PM ET BUY Down 31¢ $31 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 10:00PM-10:15PM ET BUY Down 82¢ $10 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 9:30PM-9:45PM ET BUY Up 91¢ $30 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 9:30PM-9:45PM ET BUY Up 83¢ $10 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 9:15PM-9:30PM ET BUY Down 95¢ $30 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 9:15PM-9:30PM ET BUY Down 93¢ $10 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 9:00PM-9:15PM ET BUY Down 70¢ $10 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 8:45PM-9:00PM ET BUY Up 72¢ $10 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 8:30PM-8:45PM ET SELL Down 8¢ $1 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 8:30PM-8:45PM ET BUY Down 88¢ $30 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 8:30PM-8:45PM ET BUY Down 83¢ $10 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 8:15PM-8:30PM ET BUY Down 99¢ $30 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 8:15PM-8:30PM ET BUY Down 98¢ $10 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 8:00PM-8:15PM ET BUY Up 98¢ $10 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 8:00PM-8:15PM ET BUY Up 76¢ $10 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 8:00PM-8:15PM ET SELL Down 9¢ $1 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 8:00PM-8:15PM ET BUY Down 96¢ $10 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 8:00PM-8:15PM ET BUY Down 99¢ $10 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 7:00PM-7:15PM ET BUY Down 34¢ $31 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 6:45PM-7:00PM ET BUY Down 85¢ $10 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 6:45PM-7:00PM ET BUY Down 39¢ $31 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 6:15PM-6:30PM ET BUY Up 38¢ $31 5h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 5:15PM-5:30PM ET BUY Up 97¢ $10 5h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 229 history records