Wallet analysis

2026-06-12T21:26:55+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

1F
0x1f2c…15a9
world · 92 markets active 0h ago
0.0score
−$43 -2%
TOTAL PnL · realized −$4 · open −$16
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP world specialistFresh edge
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Net worth$72
Realized−$4
Unrealized−$16
Win rate (resolved)16%
Wins / losses13 / 68
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions11
Markets (closed)81 / 92
History coverage346d
Avg bet$24
Trades / day1.9
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit86%
Chart Positions 11 History 81 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$20
7 days+$71
14 days+$67
30 days+$135
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by December 31? Yes 19¢ 18¢ $40 $36 −$4 (-9%)
Will Iran close its airspace by July 31? Yes 32¢ 30¢ $12 $12 −$1 (-6%)
Will Iran close its airspace by June 30? Yes 26¢ 18¢ $10 $7 −$3 (-28%)
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 16¢ 16¢ $6 $6 −$0 (-0%)
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by August 31? Yes 12¢ 12¢ $4 $4 −$0 (-4%)
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by June 30? Yes 3¢ 3¢ $3 $3 −$0 (-4%)
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 17¢ 16¢ $2 $2 −$0 (-3%)
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by July 31? Yes 6¢ 6¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+8%)
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 11¢ 11¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-1%)
Will Iran close its airspace by June 12? Yes 35¢ 1¢ $4 $0 −$4 (-96%)
Will Canada win on 2026-06-12? Yes 40¢ 0¢ $4 $0 −$4 (-100%)
Will Israel strike Yemen on September 9 ET? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $0 $0 −$0 (-100%)
Israel strikes Iran by January 16, 2026? Yes 18¢ 0¢ $40 $0 −$40 (-100%)
US strikes Iran by February 7, 2026? Yes 4¢ 0¢ $3 $0 −$3 (-100%)
US strikes Iran by January 31, 2026? Yes 13¢ 0¢ $136 $0 −$136 (-100%)
Will Israel strike Yemen on September 10 ET? No 11¢ 0¢ $15 $0 −$15 (-100%)
Another US military action against Iran before August? Yes 4¢ 0¢ $0 $0 −$0 (-100%)
Will Paris Saint-Germain FC win on 2026-05-30? Yes 23¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
Will Israel strike Iraq by December 31? Yes 3¢ 0¢ $3 $0 −$3 (-100%)
US strikes Iran by February 2, 2026? Yes 4¢ 0¢ $9 $0 −$9 (-100%)
Iran closes its airspace by May 21? Yes 13¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
Will Israel strike Yemen on September 15 ET? Yes 26¢ 0¢ $17 $0 −$17 (-100%)
Iran closes its airspace by May 27? Yes 9¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Will Israel not strike Yemen between September 8-15 ET? Yes 17¢ 0¢ $4 $0 −$4 (-100%)
Israel military action against Iran in July? Yes 16¢ 0¢ $19 $0 −$19 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Canada vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina end in a draw? Jun 12 $1 +$2 +203%
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by July 31? Jun 12 $2 $0 -0%
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by June 30? Jun 12 $2 $0 -0%
Will Iran close its airspace by June 15? Jun 12 $13 −$8 -59%
Will Iran close its airspace by June 11? Jun 11 $10 −$9 -95%
Will Iran close its airspace by July 15? Jun 11 $1 $0 +8%
Will Iran close its airspace by June 10? Jun 10 $5 −$5 -100%
Trump announces US x Iran ceasefire over by June 30? Jun 10 $13 +$3 +26%
Israel strike on Yemen by June 30, 2026? Jun 10 $38 −$1 -3%
Israeli forces enter Nabatieh by June 30? Jun 08 $4 $0 -4%
Will Israel launch a ground operation in Iran by June 30, 2026? Jun 08 $3 $0 -8%
Iran closes its airspace by June 8? Jun 07 $19 +$16 +82%
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? Jun 07 $60 +$84 +141%
Israeli forces enter Choukine by June 7? Jun 07 $1 −$1 -78%
Israeli forces enter Nabatieh by June 7? Jun 07 $13 −$10 -79%
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 07 $2 $0 -6%
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 07 $2 $0 -6%
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 06 $2 $0 -6%
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 06 $1 $0 -7%
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 06 $1 $0 -8%
Iran closes its airspace by July 31? Jun 04 $8 −$1 -13%
Iran closes its airspace by June 15? Jun 01 $2 $0 -12%
Will Paris Saint-Germain FC win on 2026-05-30? May 30 $2 −$2 -98%
Will Arsenal FC win on 2026-05-30? May 30 $1 −$1 -98%
Internet Access restored in Iran by May 31, 2026? May 27 $5 −$1 -18%
Will the Iran ceasefire continue through May 24? May 26 $1 −$1 -100%
Iran closes its airspace by May 27? May 26 $1 −$1 -100%
Iran closes its airspace by May 24? May 23 $24 +$91 +372%
Iran closes its airspace by May 21? May 20 $18 −$6 -36%
Iran closes its airspace by May 18? May 16 $6 −$6 -100%
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by May 31? May 16 $1 $0 -17%
Iran closes its airspace by May 15? May 14 $9 −$7 -77%
Will Trump visit China by May 15? May 12 $1 −$1 -96%
Will Reza Pahlavi enter Iran by June 30? May 08 $4 −$2 -39%
Will the Iranian regime fall by April 30? Mar 13 $4 −$4 -100%
Will Reza Pahlavi enter Iran by March 31? Mar 12 $5 −$5 -100%
Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by March 31? Mar 04 $140 +$338 +241%
Odds of Khamenei being out as Supreme Leader by March 31 over 30% in F Mar 01 $11 +$119 +1103%
Israel strikes Iran by March 31, 2026? Feb 28 $165 +$282 +171%
US x Iran meeting by February 28, 2026? Feb 23 $6 +$2 +33%
Israel strikes Iran by February 28, 2026? Feb 23 $66 −$8 -11%
Will US or Israel strike Iran by February 15, 2026? Feb 07 $30 $0 +1%
Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by February 28? Feb 07 $16 $0 -0%
US strikes Iran by February 7, 2026? Feb 05 $3 −$3 -100%
US strikes Iran by February 6, 2026? Feb 05 $3 −$2 -62%
Israel strikes Iran before 2026? Feb 03 $172 −$169 -98%
US strikes Iran by February 2, 2026? Feb 01 $9 −$9 -100%
US strikes Iran by January 31, 2026? Jan 28 $169 −$149 -88%
Internet access restored in Iran by Friday? Jan 28 $23 −$1 -3%
Israel strikes Iran by January 31, 2026? Jan 28 $181 −$64 -35%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
world 95% −$121
other 5% +$101
sports 0% +$1
crypto 0% $0
politics 0% −$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Canada vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina end in a draw? SELL Yes 99¢ $3 23m
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by December 31? SELL Yes 17¢ $1 45m
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by December 31? BUY Yes 18¢ $2 1h
Will Canada vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina end in a draw? BUY Yes 32¢ $1 1h
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by December 31? BUY Yes 19¢ $2 1h
Will Canada win on 2026-06-12? BUY Yes 31¢ $2 1h
Will Canada win on 2026-06-12? BUY Yes 51¢ $3 2h
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by July 31? BUY Yes 6¢ $1 4h
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by June 30? SELL Yes 2¢ $1 4h
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by August 31? BUY Yes 12¢ $4 4h
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by July 31? SELL Yes 7¢ $2 4h
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by June 30? SELL Yes 4¢ $2 4h
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by December 31? BUY Yes 16¢ $1 4h
Will Iran close its airspace by June 15? SELL Yes 5¢ $1 4h
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by December 31? BUY Yes 16¢ $2 5h
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 16¢ $2 5h
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 11¢ $1 10h
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 16¢ $2 10h
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 17¢ $2 10h
Will Iran close its airspace by July 31? BUY Yes 28¢ $3 10h
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by December 31? BUY Yes 19¢ $4 10h
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 17¢ $9 10h
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 17¢ $9 12h
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 16¢ $10 13h
Will Iran close its airspace by June 30? BUY Yes 22¢ $1 24h
Will Iran close its airspace by June 11? SELL Yes 1¢ $0 24h
Will Iran close its airspace by June 30? BUY Yes 22¢ $1 24h
Will Iran close its airspace by June 15? SELL Yes 10¢ $2 24h
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by July 31? BUY Yes 7¢ $2 26h
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by December 31? SELL Yes 18¢ $2 26h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +12%
net ROI/market (all)-31.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 20 -0.0% -9.5% 25% 20% +23.7%
≤30d 32 -12.1% -20.5% 19% 16% +41.7%
≤90d 34 -15.5% -23.6% 18% 15% +39.7%
all 81 -24.2% -31.4% 16% 12% -6.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover1.9 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -31.4% 12% -6.4%
10% -38.0% 12% -15.4%
15% -44.0% 10% -23.5%
20% -49.5% 10% -31.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $72.27 · official $72.27 (match) · 677 history records