Wallet analysis

2026-06-21T07:10:21+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

1.0
score
1F 0x1f2c…ecd8 world 87 markets active 1h ago coverage 537d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge
✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL +$11 (+0%) realized +$11 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +24% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +12% what you keep after slip
Net edge+12%after slip
Net WR5%break-even
Win rate40%34W / 50L
Drawdown65%max
Avg bet$40per market
Trades / day0.8pace
Fees−$9est.
Kalshi-fit72%portable
Net worth$17now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$0
7 days+$0
14 days+$6
30 days+$20
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 46% +$21
other 24% −$3
sports 16% −$2
politics 8% −$2
economics 3% $0
finance 2% −$4
crypto 0% $0
weather 0% +$4
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
borderline — thin edge, slippage-sensitive
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +5%
net ROI/market (all)+12.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 6 +0.2% -9.3% 67% 0% -9.5%
≤30d 25 +81.2% +64.0% 52% 8% -8.4%
≤90d 73 +27.5% +15.3% 38% 4% -9.1%
all 84 +24.0% +12.2% 40% 5% -9.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.8 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to10%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +12.2% 5% -9.3%
10% +1.5% 2% -17.9%
15% -8.3% 2% -25.9%
20% -17.3% 2% -33.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 25% · top 2 41% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
88% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +24% · $-wt +0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -0% → late +48% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.9 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$1 · ×1.45 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×1.64 per $1 lost it wins $1.64
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

537d coverage
Net worth$17
Realized+$11
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)40%
Wins / losses34 / 50
Est. fees paid−$9
Open positions3
Markets (closed)84 / 87
History coverage537d
Avg bet$40
Trades / day0.8
Drawdown65%
Kalshi-fit72%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 3 History 84 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? No 52¢ 52¢ $16 $16 +$0 (+1%)
Will Andy Beshear win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Yes 3¢ 2¢ $0 $0 −$0 (-13%)
Will China invade Taiwan by June 30, 2026? Yes 3¢ 0¢ $0 $0 −$0 (-85%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 1 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 21 $61 $0 +0%
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? Jun 20 $140 $0 -0%
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by June 30? Jun 20 $47 $0 +0%
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? Jun 19 $23 $0 +1%
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? Jun 19 $39 $0 +0%
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by Jun 14 $49 $0 +0%
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Jun 14 $84 +$3 +4%
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? Jun 13 $5 $0 +4%
Netanyahu out by June 30? Jun 12 $3 $0 +0%
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30? Jun 10 $19 $0 +0%
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? Jun 09 $217 $0 +0%
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? Jun 09 $31 $0 -0%
Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Jun 09 $34 $0 -1%
Israel closes its airspace by June 8? Jun 08 $53 +$2 +3%
Iran leadership change by June 30? Jun 07 $64 $0 +0%
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? Jun 04 $146 $0 -0%
Putin out as President of Russia by June 30? Jun 03 $42 $0 +0%
Will Alberta join the US? Jun 02 $56 $0 -0%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? May 27 $22 +$2 +7%
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? May 26 $134 +$8 +6%
US strike on Cuba by December 31? May 26 $48 −$1 -2%
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia May 25 $17 $0 +0%
Iran closes its airspace by May 31? May 24 $38 +$5 +14%
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027? May 23 $47 +$1 +1%
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? May 23 $3 $0 +0%
Iran leadership change by May 31? May 22 $6 $0 +0%
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by December 31? May 21 $22 $0 -1%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? May 20 $47 $0 +0%
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by May 31, 2026? May 19 $58 −$4 -8%
Israel closes its airspace by May 31? May 18 $30 −$1 -3%
Will the Carolina Panthers win the 2027 NFL league championship? Apr 26 $16 $0 +0%
Will the Iranian regime fall by May 31? Apr 26 $58 $0 +0%
Will the San Antonio Spurs win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 26 $75 +$1 +2%
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 25 $51 $0 -0%
Will the Los Angeles Lakers win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 24 $107 $0 +0%
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 24 $40 $0 -0%
Will the New York Knicks win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 24 $50 $0 +1%
Will Kevin Warsh be confirmed as Fed Chair? Apr 24 $112 $0 -0%
Will the Boston Celtics win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 23 $76 $0 -0%
Will the Detroit Pistons win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 23 $3 $0 +13%
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 22 $92 $0 +0%
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 21 $13 $0 -0%
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by April 30? Apr 21 $47 $0 +1%
Will Richard Van De Water win The Bachelorette Season 22? Apr 20 $106 +$1 +1%
Will Celta win the 2025-26 UEFA Europa League? Apr 20 $3 $0 -2%
Will Atletico Madrid win the 2025–26 Champions League? Apr 18 $177 +$2 +1%
Will Charlotte FC win the 2026 MLS Cup? Apr 17 $3 $0 -8%
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 16 $100 $0 +0%
Will Tucker Carlson win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Apr 15 $11 $0 +0%
Will Lorenzo Musetti win the 2026 Men's French Open? Apr 15 $1 $0 -4%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? SELL No 52¢ $34 1h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? BUY No 52¢ $50 1h
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 83¢ $5 5h
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 83¢ $56 5h
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 83¢ $61 8h
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? SELL Yes 6¢ $1 14h
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? BUY Yes 6¢ $1 16h
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by June 30? SELL No 96¢ $35 20h
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by June 30? SELL No 96¢ $12 20h
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by June 30? BUY No 96¢ $47 22h
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? SELL Yes 11¢ $20 32h
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? BUY Yes 11¢ $19 35h
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? SELL No 95¢ $3 2d
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? SELL No 95¢ $36 2d
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? BUY No 94¢ $2 2d
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? BUY No 94¢ $36 2d
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? BUY No 94¢ $1 2d
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? SELL Yes 10¢ $3 3d
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? BUY Yes 10¢ $3 3d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? SELL Yes 57¢ $9 3d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? SELL Yes 57¢ $28 3d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? BUY Yes 57¢ $37 3d
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by SELL Yes 8¢ $4 6d
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by SELL Yes 8¢ $3 6d
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by BUY Yes 8¢ $7 6d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL No 82¢ $32 7d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL No 82¢ $29 7d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY No 83¢ $61 7d
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by SELL No 93¢ $37 7d
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by SELL No 93¢ $2 7d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $17.09 · official $16.27 (match) · 421 history records