Wallet analysis

2026-06-19T08:45:48+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.0
score
1F 0x1f2d…2b35 sports 411 markets active 1h ago coverage 608d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$948 (-0%) realized −$940 · open −$8
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -3% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -19% what you keep after slip
Net edge-19%after slip
Net WR50%break-even
Win rate52%214W / 196L
Whale WR61%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$710per market
Trades / day3.9pace
Fees−$1,114est.
Kalshi-fit94%portable
Net worth$682now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$343
7 days+$1,208
14 days+$6,999
30 days+$7,951
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 92% −$6,205
other 7% +$3,340
politics 1% +$1,866
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +50%
net ROI/market (all)-12.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 28 +17.1% +5.9% 61% 61% -5.4%
≤30d 95 +11.9% +1.2% 58% 57% +1.8%
≤90d 95 +11.9% +1.2% 58% 57% +1.8%
all 410 -3.0% -12.3% 52% 50% -8.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover3.9 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -12.3% 50% -8.7%
10% -20.7% 49% -17.5%
15% -28.3% 47% -25.5%
20% -35.4% 41% -32.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 2% · top 2 4% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +12% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
4% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -3% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 61% (≥$899) strong on big bets
Persistence
early -8% → late +2% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
4.3 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$486 vs −$541 · ×0.9 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.99 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

608d coverage
Net worth$682
Realized−$940
Unrealized−$8
Win rate (resolved)52%
Wins / losses214 / 196
Whale WR (big bets)61%
Est. fees paid−$1,114
Open positions1
Markets (closed)410 / 411
History coverage608d
Avg bet$710
Trades / day3.9
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit94%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 410 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Map Handicap: TS (-1.5) vs G2 (+1.5) Spirit 46¢ 46¢ $690 $682 −$8 (-1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 133 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs Jun 18 $1,350 +$400 +30%
Counter-Strike: PARIVISION vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 18 $470 +$530 +113%
Dota 2: Team Yandex vs LGD Gaming - Game 3 Winner Jun 18 $995 +$1,005 +101%
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs BetBoom Team - Map 2 Winner Jun 18 $646 −$514 -80%
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs BetBoom Team - Map 1 Winner Jun 18 $1,094 −$1,078 -98%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 15 $1,822 −$802 -44%
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs FUT Esports - Map 2 Winner Jun 15 $504 +$296 +59%
Counter-Strike: 9z vs TheMongolz - Map 2 Winner Jun 15 $1,129 +$971 +86%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs G2 - Map 1 Winner Jun 15 $1,505 −$1,505 -100%
Counter-Strike: G2 vs Legacy (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 14 $1,543 +$957 +62%
Counter-Strike: TheMongolz vs Monte (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 14 $955 +$545 +57%
Counter-Strike: MOUZ vs FUT Esports - Map 1 Winner Jun 14 $1,120 +$880 +79%
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G (BO5) - LCK Road to MSI Jun 14 $447 +$553 +124%
Counter-Strike: MOUZ vs FUT Esports - Map 2 Winner Jun 14 $1,093 −$8 -1%
Counter-Strike: TheMongolz vs Monte - Map 1 Winner Jun 14 $789 −$408 -52%
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 13 $975 +$225 +23%
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs FURIA (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage Jun 13 $1,191 −$1,170 -98%
Map Handicap: VIT (-1.5) vs MOUZ (+1.5) Jun 13 $1,294 +$316 +24%
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs G2 - Map 1 Winner Jun 13 $768 −$767 -100%
Map Handicap: FAL (-1.5) vs Monte (+1.5) Jun 13 $308 −$306 -100%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs TheMongolz - Map 1 Winner Jun 13 $761 +$739 +97%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs TheMongolz (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Jun 13 $771 +$334 +43%
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs Spirit (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stag Jun 12 $982 +$718 +73%
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs BetBoom Team (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Jun 12 $1,693 −$1,666 -98%
Counter-Strike: FUT Esports vs G2 - Map 2 Winner Jun 12 $567 +$433 +76%
Map Handicap: TS (-1.5) vs Aurora Gaming (+1.5) Jun 12 $941 −$930 -99%
Counter-Strike: FUT Esports vs G2 - Map 1 Winner Jun 12 $1,060 +$940 +89%
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs MOUZ (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 12 $661 +$519 +79%
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 11 $537 +$463 +86%
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs FUT Esports (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stag Jun 11 $979 +$801 +82%
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs G2 - Map 2 Winner Jun 11 $637 +$334 +52%
Dota 2: BetBoom Team vs LGD Gaming - Game 1 Winner Jun 11 $650 +$650 +100%
Counter-Strike: MOUZ vs Legacy - Map 1 Winner Jun 11 $517 −$510 -99%
Dota 2: BetBoom Team vs LGD Gaming - Game 2 Winner Jun 08 $744 +$456 +61%
Dota 2: Team Yandex vs LGD Gaming - Game 2 Winner Jun 08 $1,088 +$469 +43%
Dota 2: BetBoom Team vs LGD Gaming (BO3) - BLAST Slam Playoffs Jun 07 $1,024 +$1,076 +105%
Dota 2: Team Yandex vs LGD Gaming - Game 1 Winner Jun 07 $750 −$687 -92%
Dota 2: Team Yandex vs BetBoom Team (BO3) - BLAST Slam Playoffs Jun 06 $2,123 +$822 +39%
Dota 2: Aurora vs LGD Gaming - Game 1 Winner Jun 06 $1,254 +$746 +60%
Dota 2: Aurora vs LGD Gaming (BO3) - BLAST Slam Playoffs Jun 06 $1,282 −$1,265 -99%
Dota 2: Team Yandex vs BetBoom Team - Game 2 Winner Jun 06 $1,814 +$1,875 +103%
Dota 2: Team Falcons vs Aurora (BO3) - BLAST Slam Playoffs Jun 06 $1,340 +$660 +49%
Dota 2: Team Falcons vs Aurora - Game 2 Winner Jun 05 $1,290 +$858 +66%
Dota 2: Team Falcons vs BetBoom Team - Game 1 Winner Jun 05 $1,733 −$949 -55%
Dota 2: LGD Gaming vs Team Liquid - Game 1 Winner Jun 05 $4 +$4 +90%
Dota 2: Team Falcons vs Aurora - Game 1 Winner Jun 05 $1,334 +$187 +14%
Dota 2: Team Falcons vs BetBoom Team - Game 2 Winner Jun 05 $897 −$198 -22%
Dota 2: LGD Gaming vs Team Yandex (BO3) - BLAST Slam Playoffs Jun 05 $681 +$519 +76%
Dota 2: LGD Gaming vs Team Yandex - Game 2 Winner Jun 04 $853 +$506 +59%
Dota 2: Team Falcons vs Team Liquid - Game 1 Winner Jun 04 $550 +$450 +82%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Map Handicap: TS (-1.5) vs G2 (+1.5) BUY Spirit 46¢ $701 1h
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs SELL FURIA 70¢ $4 13h
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs SELL FURIA 70¢ $571 13h
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs SELL FURIA 70¢ $31 13h
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs SELL FURIA 70¢ $105 13h
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs SELL FURIA 70¢ $68 13h
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs SELL FURIA 70¢ $4 13h
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs SELL FURIA 70¢ $2 13h
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs SELL FURIA 70¢ $30 13h
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs SELL FURIA 70¢ $0 13h
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs SELL FURIA 70¢ $6 13h
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs SELL FURIA 70¢ $354 13h
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs SELL FURIA 70¢ $32 13h
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs SELL FURIA 70¢ $543 13h
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs BUY FURIA 54¢ $1,350 15h
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs BetBoom Team - Map 2 Winner SELL BetBoom Team 8¢ $132 17h
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs BetBoom Team - Map 2 Winner BUY BetBoom Team 38¢ $646 17h
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs BetBoom Team - Map 1 Winner BUY BetBoom Team 49¢ $1,094 25h
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 SELL Natus Vincere 34¢ $838 3d
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 SELL Natus Vincere 34¢ $95 3d
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 SELL Natus Vincere 34¢ $79 3d
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 SELL Natus Vincere 34¢ $8 3d
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY Natus Vincere 60¢ $1,822 3d
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs FUT Esports - Map 2 Winner BUY BetBoom Team 63¢ $501 3d
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs FUT Esports - Map 2 Winner BUY BetBoom Team 63¢ $3 3d
Counter-Strike: 9z vs TheMongolz - Map 2 Winner BUY 9z 53¢ $1,129 3d
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs G2 - Map 1 Winner BUY G2 43¢ $1,353 3d
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs G2 - Map 1 Winner BUY G2 43¢ $152 3d
Counter-Strike: G2 vs Legacy (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY G2 61¢ $1,543 4d
Counter-Strike: TheMongolz vs Monte (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY TheMongolz 63¢ $955 4d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $682.50 · official $682.50 (match) · 2552 history records