Wallet analysis

2026-06-19T21:36:09+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
1F 0x1f2f…2543 other 110 markets active 2h ago coverage 130d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL +$31 (+0%) realized +$31 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +2% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -8% what you keep after slip
Net edge-8%after slip
Net WR6%break-even
Win rate14%15W / 94L
Whale WR0%big bets
Drawdown48%max
Avg bet$225per market
Trades / day2.0pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit64%portable
Net worth$30now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days$0
14 days$0
30 days−$3
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 52% −$13
politics 30% −$10
sports 11% +$53
crypto 2% $0
tech 2% $0
world 2% $0
economics 1% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +6%
net ROI/market (all)-8.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d no closed markets
≤30d 8 -0.1% -9.6% 0% 0% -9.6%
≤90d 72 -0.1% -9.6% 3% 0% -9.6%
all 109 +1.6% -8.1% 14% 6% -9.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover2.0 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -8.1% 6% -9.4%
10% -16.9% 5% -18.1%
15% -24.9% 4% -26.0%
20% -32.3% 3% -33.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 40% · top 2 55% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
53% wins margin < slip thin win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +2% · $-wt +0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 0% (≥$500) big bets weaker
Persistence
early +3% → late -0% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$6 vs −$1 · ×9.11 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.47 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

130d coverage
Net worth$30
Realized+$31
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)14%
Wins / losses15 / 94
Whale WR (big bets)0%
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions1
Markets (closed)109 / 110
History coverage130d
Avg bet$225
Trades / day2.0
Drawdown48%
Kalshi-fit64%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 109 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Liz Cheney win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? No 99¢ 99¢ $30 $30 −$0 (-0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 3 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Olivier Faure win the 2027 French presidential election? May 31 $262 $0 -0%
Will Ivory Coast win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 28 $621 −$1 -0%
Will Ségolène Royal win the 2027 French presidential election? May 27 $241 $0 -0%
Will South Korea win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 25 $193 $0 -0%
Will Toni Atkins win the California Governor Election in 2026? May 23 $216 $0 -0%
Will Jamie Dimon win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 22 $190 $0 -0%
Will Franco Colapinto be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 22 $200 $0 -0%
Will Eleni Kounalakis win the California Governor Election in 2026? May 21 $204 $0 -0%
Will Croatia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 20 $201 $0 -0%
Will Carole Delga win the 2027 French presidential election? May 19 $199 $0 -0%
Will Park Yong-jin win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election May 17 $202 $0 -0%
Will Jair Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? May 16 $214 $0 -0%
Will Ecuador win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 15 $276 $0 -0%
Will Stephen Smith win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 14 $275 $0 -0%
Will Eric Trump win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 14 $240 $0 -0%
Will Paraguay win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 13 $672 −$1 -0%
Will Morocco win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 12 $238 $0 -0%
Will Hubert Hurkacz win the 2026 Men's French Open? May 11 $242 $0 -0%
Will Canada win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 10 $426 −$1 -0%
Will Hillary Clinton win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 10 $235 $0 -0%
Will Bitcoin reach $90,000 in April? May 09 $46 $0 +0%
Will Park Hong-keun win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election Apr 20 $42 $0 -0%
Will Mathilde Panot win the 2027 French presidential election? Apr 20 $210 $0 -0%
Will Oprah Winfrey win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 19 $207 $0 -0%
Will Sweden win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 18 $201 $0 -0%
Will Ahn Cheol-soo win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election Apr 17 $164 $0 -0%
Will Ruben Gallego win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 17 $169 $0 -0%
Will Pete Hegseth win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Apr 17 $207 $0 -0%
Will Switzerland win Eurovision 2026? Apr 16 $215 $0 -0%
Will François Asselineau win the 2027 French presidential election? Apr 15 $590 −$1 -0%
Will Austria win Eurovision 2026? Apr 15 $168 $0 -0%
Will South Africa win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 14 $378 $0 -0%
Will New Zealand win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 14 $439 $0 -0%
Will Tesla be the largest company in the world by market cap on April Apr 13 $210 $0 -0%
Will Qatar win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 13 $649 −$1 -0%
Will Kim Kardashian win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Apr 13 $228 $0 -0%
Will John Thune win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Apr 13 $202 $0 -0%
Will Zohran Mamdani win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 12 $219 $0 -0%
Will Poland win Eurovision 2026? Apr 12 $229 $0 -0%
Will Laurent Wauquiez win the 2027 French presidential election? Apr 11 $213 $0 -0%
Will Bernie Sanders win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 10 $233 $0 -0%
Will Eduardo Leite win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Apr 08 $243 $0 -0%
Will Kristi Noem win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Apr 08 $243 $0 -0%
Will Fernando Alonso be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Apr 08 $179 $0 -0%
Will Gabriel Bortoleto be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Apr 07 $650 −$1 -0%
Will Arvid Lindblad be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Apr 07 $375 $0 -0%
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the April 2026 m Apr 07 $180 $0 -0%
Will Xavier Bertrand win the 2027 French presidential election? Apr 05 $208 −$1 -0%
Will Scotland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 05 $207 $0 -0%
Will Liam Lawson be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Apr 05 $561 −$1 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Liz Cheney win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $30 1h
Will Olivier Faure win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $262 19d
Will Olivier Faure win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $262 22d
Will Ivory Coast win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $214 22d
Will Ivory Coast win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $214 23d
Will Ségolène Royal win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $241 23d
Will Ségolène Royal win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $241 23d
Will South Korea win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $193 25d
Will South Korea win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $193 26d
Will Toni Atkins win the California Governor Election in 2026? SELL No 100¢ $216 27d
Will Toni Atkins win the California Governor Election in 2026? BUY No 100¢ $216 27d
Will Jamie Dimon win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $190 27d
Will Jamie Dimon win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $190 28d
Will Franco Colapinto be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $200 28d
Will Franco Colapinto be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $200 29d
Will Eleni Kounalakis win the California Governor Election in 2026? SELL No 100¢ $204 29d
Will Eleni Kounalakis win the California Governor Election in 2026? BUY No 100¢ $204 30d
Will Croatia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 99¢ $201 30d
Will Croatia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 99¢ $201 31d
Will Carole Delga win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $199 31d
Will Carole Delga win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 100¢ $199 33d
Will Park Yong-jin win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election SELL No 100¢ $202 33d
Will Park Yong-jin win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election BUY No 100¢ $202 34d
Will Jair Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $214 34d
Will Jair Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $214 35d
Will Ecuador win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 99¢ $276 35d
Will Ecuador win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 99¢ $276 35d
Will Stephen Smith win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $275 36d
Will Stephen Smith win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $275 36d
Will Eric Trump win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $240 36d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $29.98 · official $29.98 (match) · 313 history records