Wallet analysis

2026-06-26T09:56:35+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
1F 0x1f32…efb8 crypto 398 markets active 0h ago coverage 5d ⚠
BOTnot copyable crypto specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 4d only
✗ bot/MM pace (679 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$452 (+6%) realized +$485 · open −$33
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +3% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -21% what you keep after slip
Net edge-21%after slip
Net WR27%break-even
Win rate32%91W / 190L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$19per market
Trades / day679.5pace
Kalshi-fit99%portable
Net worth$470now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 5d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 100% +$217
other 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (679 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +27%
net ROI/market (all)-7.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 281 +2.8% -7.0% 32% 27% -6.0%
≤30d 281 +2.8% -7.0% 32% 27% -6.0%
≤90d 281 +2.8% -7.0% 32% 27% -6.0%
all 281 +2.8% -7.0% 32% 27% -6.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover679.5 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -7.0% 27% -6.0%
10% ← realistic here -15.9% 23% -15.0%
15% -24.0% 19% -23.2%
20% -31.4% 14% -30.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 11% · top 2 19% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +4% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
15% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +3% · $-wt +4% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +10% → late -4% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
5.1 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$15 vs −$7 · ×2.22 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.22 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

5d coverage
Net worth$470
Realized+$485
Unrealized−$33
Win rate (resolved)32%
Wins / losses91 / 190
Open positions117
Markets (closed)281 / 398
History coverage5d ⚠
Avg bet$19
Trades / day679.5
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit99%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 117 History 281 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $56,000 and $58,000 on June 27? Yes 9¢ 14¢ $28 $42 +$14 (+51%)
Will Solana dip to $60 June 22-28? Yes 7¢ 5¢ $41 $30 −$11 (-26%)
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on June 27? Yes 10¢ 8¢ $32 $24 −$8 (-24%)
Will Ethereum reach $4,000 by December 31, 2026? Yes 8¢ 8¢ $24 $22 −$2 (-6%)
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,400 on July 1? No 6¢ 7¢ $18 $22 +$4 (+22%)
Will Ethereum dip to $1,450 on June 26? Yes 3¢ 6¢ $10 $19 +$9 (+87%)
Will Ethereum dip to $1,500 by December 31, 2026? No 8¢ 6¢ $24 $19 −$6 (-23%)
Will Bitcoin reach $110,000 by December 31, 2026? Yes 10¢ 8¢ $21 $18 −$3 (-15%)
Will Ethereum reach $5,000 by December 31, 2026? Yes 6¢ 6¢ $18 $16 −$1 (-8%)
Will Bitcoin hit $150k by December 31, 2026? Yes 5¢ 5¢ $15 $14 −$2 (-11%)
Will the price of XRP be above $1.10 on June 27? Yes 5¢ 4¢ $15 $14 −$2 (-10%)
Will Bitcoin reach $130,000 by December 31, 2026? Yes 5¢ 4¢ $15 $14 −$2 (-10%)
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $54,000 on June 28? No 2¢ 2¢ $12 $10 −$2 (-16%)
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $52,000 on July 1? No 3¢ 2¢ $18 $10 −$8 (-45%)
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $56,000 on June 28? No 2¢ 5¢ $5 $10 +$5 (+98%)
Will Bitcoin reach $160,000 by December 31, 2026? Yes 3¢ 3¢ $10 $9 −$0 (-2%)
Will Bitcoin dip to $10,000 by December 31, 2026? Yes 3¢ 3¢ $9 $9 −$1 (-8%)
Will Bitcoin reach $67,500 in June? Yes 3¢ 3¢ $8 $8 +$0 (+2%)
Will Bitcoin dip to $5,000 by December 31, 2026? Yes 2¢ 2¢ $9 $8 −$1 (-8%)
Will Ethereum dip to $1,300 June 22-28? Yes 2¢ 3¢ $5 $8 +$3 (+49%)
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on June 27? Yes 3¢ 2¢ $13 $7 −$6 (-46%)
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on June 29? Yes 1¢ 2¢ $4 $6 +$2 (+49%)
Will Solana dip to $50 in June? Yes 4¢ 2¢ $14 $6 −$8 (-56%)
Will Bitcoin reach $66,000 June 22-28? Yes 1¢ 2¢ $3 $6 +$3 (+97%)
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $54,000 on June 30? No 5¢ 4¢ $7 $6 −$1 (-19%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,400 on June 27? Jun 26 $34 +$2 +5%
Will Bitcoin reach $77,500 in June? Jun 26 $16 −$2 -11%
Will Ethereum reach $2,600 in June? Jun 26 $1 +$2 +166%
Will Bitcoin dip to $56,000 June 22-28? Jun 26 $24 +$12 +52%
Will the price of Ethereum be between $1,600 and $1,700 on June 26? Jun 26 $4 +$6 +148%
Will Ethereum dip to $1,300 in June? Jun 26 $203 +$23 +11%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,400 on June 30? Jun 26 $28 −$1 -4%
Will Bitcoin dip to $56,000 on June 26? Jun 26 $6 +$1 +10%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on June 26? Jun 26 $65 −$22 -35%
Will the price of XRP be above $0.90 on June 26? Jun 26 $0 $0 +120%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on June 26? Jun 26 $205 +$16 +8%
Will Bitcoin dip to $52,500 in June? Jun 26 $239 +$10 +4%
Will Bitcoin dip to $57,000 on June 26? Jun 26 $0 $0 +50%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,500 on June 26? Jun 26 $71 +$68 +96%
Will Bitcoin reach $80,000 in June? Jun 26 $2 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin reach $72,500 in June? Jun 26 $86 −$5 -6%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $54,000 on June 26? Jun 26 $18 +$3 +18%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $58,000 on June 26? Jun 26 $87 +$1 +1%
Will Bitcoin reach $90,000 in June? Jun 26 $1 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $56,000 on June 26? Jun 26 $59 +$53 +90%
Solana Up or Down on June 26? Jun 26 $20 +$9 +45%
Will Ethereum reach $2,000 in June? Jun 26 $82 −$15 -18%
Will Ethereum dip to $500 by December 31, 2026? Jun 26 $20 +$4 +22%
Will Bitcoin dip to $47,500 in June? Jun 26 $66 −$8 -13%
Will Bitcoin reach $65,000 in June? Jun 26 $133 +$7 +5%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $56,000 on June 27? Jun 26 $58 −$15 -25%
Will Ethereum dip to $1,450 on June 25? Jun 26 $0 $0 -100%
Will Bitcoin dip to $56,000 on June 25? Jun 26 $8 +$4 +49%
Will Ethereum reach $1,800 June 22-28? Jun 26 $8 −$3 -42%
Will Bitcoin reach $63,000 on June 25? Jun 26 $33 −$17 -52%
Will Bitcoin reach $64,000 on June 25? Jun 26 $7 −$7 -100%
Will Bitcoin reach $65,000 on June 25? Jun 26 $2 −$2 -100%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,600 on June 26? Jun 26 $58 +$28 +47%
Will the price of Solana be above $70 on June 26? Jun 26 $18 +$9 +50%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on June 27? Jun 26 $16 −$15 -93%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on June 27? Jun 26 $33 −$26 -78%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,900 on July 1? Jun 26 $1 $0 +33%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,900 on June 26? Jun 26 $1 +$1 +50%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $70,000 on June 28? Jun 26 $1 −$1 -67%
Will Ethereum dip to $1,500 in June? Jun 26 $36 −$5 -15%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,300 on July 1? Jun 26 $24 −$1 -5%
Will Bitcoin dip to $57,000 on June 25? Jun 26 $9 −$2 -19%
Will XRP dip to $0.80 in June? Jun 26 $3 +$1 +25%
Will Ethereum dip to $1,200 in June? Jun 26 $51 −$9 -17%
Will Solana reach $70 on June 25? Jun 26 $2 −$1 -41%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $56,000 on July 1? Jun 26 $15 +$51 +340%
Will Ethereum dip to $1,500 on June 25? Jun 26 $36 +$25 +70%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on June 26? Jun 26 $26 +$4 +16%
Will Bitcoin reach $87,500 in June? Jun 25 $1 $0 -0%
Will Bitcoin reach $62,000 on June 25? Jun 25 $68 −$19 -28%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Bitcoin reach $70,000 in June? BUY Yes 1¢ $1 1m
Will Bitcoin reach $70,000 in June? BUY Yes 1¢ $2 1m
Will Bitcoin reach $70,000 in June? BUY Yes 1¢ $1 1m
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,900 on June 27? BUY Yes 0¢ $0 1m
Will the price of Ethereum be less than $1,300 on June 26? SELL Yes 0¢ $0 2m
Will Bitcoin reach $67,500 in June? BUY Yes 3¢ $1 3m
Will Bitcoin reach $67,500 in June? BUY Yes 3¢ $5 3m
Will Bitcoin reach $67,500 in June? BUY Yes 3¢ $2 3m
Will the price of Ethereum be less than $1,300 on June 26? SELL Yes 0¢ $0 4m
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,400 on June 26? SELL No 2¢ $0 4m
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,800 on July 1? BUY Yes 1¢ $0 4m
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $56,000 and $58,000 on June 27? BUY Yes 9¢ $28 8m
Will Ethereum dip to $1,450 on June 26? BUY Yes 3¢ $10 15m
Will Solana reach $120 in June? BUY Yes 0¢ $0 25m
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,400 on June 27? SELL No 3¢ $10 33m
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,400 on June 27? BUY No 4¢ $11 36m
Will Solana reach $120 in June? BUY Yes 0¢ $0 38m
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,400 on June 27? BUY No 3¢ $0 40m
Will Bitcoin reach $77,500 in June? SELL Yes 0¢ $1 42m
Will Ethereum reach $2,600 in June? SELL Yes 0¢ $2 44m
Will Ethereum reach $2,600 in June? SELL Yes 0¢ $1 44m
Will Bitcoin dip to $56,000 June 22-28? SELL Yes 10¢ $8 50m
Will Bitcoin reach $77,500 in June? BUY Yes 0¢ $1 55m
Will Bitcoin dip to $50,000 in June? SELL Yes 2¢ $0 55m
Will the price of Ethereum be between $1,600 and $1,700 on June 26? SELL Yes 15¢ $10 56m
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on June 27? SELL Yes 3¢ $0 57m
Ethereum all time high by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes 1¢ $0 1h
Will Bitcoin dip to $50,000 in June? SELL Yes 2¢ $3 1h
Will Dogecoin reach $0.15 in June? SELL Yes 0¢ $1 1h
Will Ethereum dip to $1,300 in June? SELL Yes 3¢ $11 1h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $470.06 · official $470.06 (match) · 3477 history records