Wallet analysis

2026-06-19T08:12:37+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
1F 0x1f34…00f7 crypto 47 markets active 0h ago coverage 1d ⚠
BOTnot copyable crypto specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 1d onlyP/L from Polymarket (history capped)
✗ bot/MM pace (3453 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ on-chain reconstruction ≠ official P&L (longshot/capped history)✗ only 1d of captured history — unreliable✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$28,230 (+133%) realized +$28,213 · open +$17
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -33% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -48% what you keep after slip
Net edge-48%after slip
Net WR16%break-even
Win rate34%24W / 46L
Whale WR33%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$450per market
Trades / day3453.0pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$1,766now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 1d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 100% +$161
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (3453 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +16%
net ROI/market (all)-39.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 70 -32.8% -39.2% 34% 16% -13.7%
≤30d 70 -32.8% -39.2% 34% 16% -13.7%
≤90d 70 -32.8% -39.2% 34% 16% -13.7%
all 70 -32.8% -39.2% 34% 16% -13.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover3453.0 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -39.2% 16% -13.7%
10% ← realistic here -45.0% 4% -21.9%
15% -50.3% 3% -29.5%
20% -55.2% 0% -36.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 13% · top 2 25% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -5% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
50% wins margin < slip thin win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -33% · $-wt -5% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 33% (≥$500) big bets weaker
Persistence
early +1% → late -67% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
73.5 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$47 vs −$46 · ×1.01 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.53 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

1d coverage
Net worth$1,766
Realized+$28,213
Unrealized+$17
Win rate (resolved)34%
Wins / losses24 / 46
Whale WR (big bets)33%
Open positions1
Markets (closed)70 / 47
History coverage1d ⚠
Avg bet$450
Trades / day3453.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 70 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 4:10AM-4:15AM ET Up 57¢ 56¢ $187 $184 −$3 (-2%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 4:10AM-4:15AM ET Down 29¢ 44¢ $33 $51 +$17 (+52%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 24 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 25, 5:10AM-5:15AM ET Jun 19 $343 −$343 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 6:10PM-6:15PM ET Jun 19 $118 −$118 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 6:15PM-6:20PM ET Jun 19 $27 −$27 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 6:20PM-6:25PM ET Jun 19 $79 −$79 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 12:30PM-12:35PM ET Jun 19 $23 −$23 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 12:25PM-12:30PM ET Jun 19 $53 −$53 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 28, 6:55AM-7:00AM ET Jun 19 $92 −$92 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 10:55PM-11:00PM ET Jun 19 $73 −$73 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 29, 8:05AM-8:10AM ET Jun 19 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 6:20AM-6:25AM ET Jun 19 $12 −$12 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 16, 3:30PM-3:45PM ET Jun 19 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 18, 4:30AM-4:45AM ET Jun 19 $20 −$20 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 2:05AM-2:10AM ET Jun 19 $14 −$14 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 8:10AM-8:15AM ET Jun 19 $37 −$37 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 1:15PM-1:20PM ET Jun 19 $11 −$11 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 3, 10:00PM-10:05PM ET Jun 19 $15 −$15 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 3, 9:35AM-9:40AM ET Jun 19 $43 −$43 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 7:50PM-7:55PM ET Jun 19 $95 −$95 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 10, 7:50AM-7:55AM ET Jun 19 $33 −$33 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 20, 5:30AM-5:45AM ET Jun 19 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 1:00AM-1:05AM ET Jun 19 $25 −$25 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 16, 6:00PM-6:15PM ET Jun 19 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 2:35AM-2:40AM ET Jun 19 $22 −$22 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 28, 5:10PM-5:15PM ET Jun 19 $0 $0 -200%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 4:05AM-4:10AM ET Jun 19 $643 −$32 -5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 4:00AM-4:05AM ET Jun 19 $385 −$10 -2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 3:55AM-4:00AM ET Jun 19 $308 −$13 -4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 3:50AM-3:55AM ET Jun 19 $167 +$23 +14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 3:45AM-3:50AM ET Jun 19 $340 +$62 +18%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 3:40AM-3:45AM ET Jun 19 $377 −$33 -9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 3:35AM-3:40AM ET Jun 19 $572 −$1 -0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 3:30AM-3:35AM ET Jun 19 $716 +$16 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 3:25AM-3:30AM ET Jun 19 $379 +$137 +36%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 3:20AM-3:25AM ET Jun 19 $315 −$7 -2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 3:15AM-3:20AM ET Jun 19 $547 +$76 +14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 3:10AM-3:15AM ET Jun 19 $290 −$34 -12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 3:05AM-3:10AM ET Jun 19 $758 −$85 -11%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 3:00AM-3:05AM ET Jun 19 $243 +$100 +41%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 2:55AM-3:00AM ET Jun 19 $557 −$113 -20%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 2:50AM-2:55AM ET Jun 19 $708 −$78 -11%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 2:45AM-2:50AM ET Jun 19 $442 +$46 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 2:40AM-2:45AM ET Jun 19 $469 −$34 -7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 2:35AM-2:40AM ET Jun 19 $208 +$65 +31%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 2:30AM-2:35AM ET Jun 19 $518 +$10 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 2:25AM-2:30AM ET Jun 19 $478 −$91 -19%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 2:20AM-2:25AM ET Jun 19 $538 −$103 -19%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 2:15AM-2:20AM ET Jun 19 $696 −$12 -2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 2:10AM-2:15AM ET Jun 19 $344 +$20 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 2:05AM-2:10AM ET Jun 19 $631 +$6 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 2:00AM-2:05AM ET Jun 19 $385 +$63 +16%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 4:10AM-4:15AM ET BUY Up 89¢ $36 0m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 4:10AM-4:15AM ET BUY Down 11¢ $0 0m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 4:10AM-4:15AM ET BUY Down 11¢ $1 0m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 4:10AM-4:15AM ET BUY Up 90¢ $5 0m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 4:10AM-4:15AM ET BUY Up 90¢ $12 0m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 4:10AM-4:15AM ET BUY Up 90¢ $9 0m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 4:10AM-4:15AM ET BUY Up 90¢ $9 0m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 4:10AM-4:15AM ET BUY Down 11¢ $1 0m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 4:10AM-4:15AM ET BUY Down 11¢ $0 0m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 4:10AM-4:15AM ET BUY Down 11¢ $1 0m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 4:10AM-4:15AM ET BUY Down 11¢ $3 0m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 4:10AM-4:15AM ET BUY Up 57¢ $18 1m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 4:10AM-4:15AM ET BUY Up 57¢ $3 1m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 4:10AM-4:15AM ET BUY Up 57¢ $1 2m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 4:10AM-4:15AM ET BUY Up 52¢ $2 2m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 4:10AM-4:15AM ET BUY Up 53¢ $21 2m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 4:10AM-4:15AM ET BUY Up 53¢ $0 2m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 4:10AM-4:15AM ET BUY Up 53¢ $1 2m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 4:10AM-4:15AM ET BUY Up 53¢ $2 2m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 4:10AM-4:15AM ET BUY Up 53¢ $18 2m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 4:10AM-4:15AM ET BUY Up 44¢ $18 2m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 4:10AM-4:15AM ET BUY Up 56¢ $1 2m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 4:10AM-4:15AM ET BUY Down 45¢ $3 2m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 4:10AM-4:15AM ET BUY Down 45¢ $2 2m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 4:10AM-4:15AM ET BUY Down 45¢ $1 2m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 4:10AM-4:15AM ET BUY Down 45¢ $2 2m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 4:10AM-4:15AM ET BUY Down 45¢ $1 2m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 4:10AM-4:15AM ET BUY Down 45¢ $4 2m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 4:10AM-4:15AM ET BUY Down 45¢ $4 2m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 4:10AM-4:15AM ET BUY Down 44¢ $2 2m
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $1,765.64 · official $1,755.17 (match) · 3500 history records