Wallet analysis

2026-06-20T08:23:46+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
1F 0x1f35…fcdb weather 896 markets active 4h ago coverage 103d ⚠
TRAPdo not copy weather specialist⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 103d only
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! high turnover
Total PnL +$566 (+1%) realized +$573 · open −$7
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -8% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -29% what you keep after slip
Net edge-29%after slip
Net WR13%break-even
Win rate67%600W / 293L
Whale WR100%big bets
Drawdown20%max
Avg bet$90per market
Trades / day29.2pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit98%portable
Net worth$513now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$57
7 days+$468
14 days+$979
30 days+$1,422
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
weather 96% +$1,537
crypto 4% −$171
other 0% −$18
sports 0% +$12
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +13%
net ROI/market (all)-16.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 107 -4.5% -13.6% 68% 5% -7.5%
≤30d 309 -1.4% -10.7% 87% 2% -7.6%
≤90d 684 -7.9% -16.7% 65% 13% -7.7%
all 893 -8.2% -16.9% 67% 13% -8.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover29.2 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -16.9% 13% -8.0%
10% ← realistic here -24.9% 10% -16.8%
15% -32.1% 8% -24.9%
20% -38.8% 7% -32.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 3% · top 2 5% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +2% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
80% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -8% · $-wt +2% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR 100% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early -13% → late -3% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.0 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$4 vs −$3 · ×1.29 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×2.66 per $1 lost it wins $2.66
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

103d coverage
Net worth$513
Realized+$573
Unrealized−$7
Win rate (resolved)67%
Wins / losses600 / 293
Whale WR (big bets)100%
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions1
Markets (closed)893 / 896
History coverage103d ⚠
Avg bet$90
Trades / day29.2
Drawdown20%
Kalshi-fit98%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 893 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 24°C on June 20? Yes 99¢ 98¢ $520 $513 −$7 (-1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 2 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the highest temperature in Panama City be 33°C on June 19? Jun 20 $16 $0 +2%
Will the highest temperature in Panama City be 32°C on June 19? Jun 20 $187 +$4 +2%
Will the highest temperature in London be 30°C on June 19? Jun 19 $74 +$3 +4%
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 36°C on June 19? Jun 19 $96 +$5 +5%
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 34°C on June 19? Jun 19 $280 +$3 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 33°C on June 19? Jun 19 $193 +$2 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Cape Town be 22°C on June 19? Jun 19 $187 +$2 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Cape Town be 23°C on June 19? Jun 19 $22 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Busan be 30°C on June 19? Jun 19 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 29°C on June 19? Jun 19 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 32°C on June 19? Jun 19 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 32°C or higher on June 19? Jun 19 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 31°C on June 19? Jun 19 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 30°C on June 19? Jun 19 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Kuala Lumpur be 34°C or higher on June Jun 19 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Kuala Lumpur be 31°C on June 19? Jun 19 $695 +$17 +2%
Will the highest temperature in Kuala Lumpur be 32°C on June 19? Jun 19 $387 +$9 +2%
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 25°C on June 19? Jun 18 $1 −$1 -96%
Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 43°C on June 19? Jun 18 $1 −$1 -96%
Will the highest temperature in Kuala Lumpur be 34°C on June 18? Jun 18 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 37°C on June 18? Jun 18 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 25°C on June 18? Jun 18 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 35°C on June 18? Jun 18 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Busan be 31°C on June 18? Jun 18 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 30°C on June 18? Jun 18 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 28°C on June 18? Jun 18 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Karachi be 36°C on June 18? Jun 18 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 33°C on June 18? Jun 18 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 34°C on June 18? Jun 18 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 27°C on June 18? Jun 18 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Kuala Lumpur be 35°C on June 18? Jun 18 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 29°C on June 18? Jun 18 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Manila be 38°C on June 18? Jun 18 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 36°C on June 18? Jun 18 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 28°C on June 18? Jun 18 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 35°C on June 18? Jun 18 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 42°C or higher on June 18? Jun 18 $2 −$2 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 38°C on June 18? Jun 18 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 16°C on June 18? Jun 18 $744 +$34 +5%
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 30°C on June 18? Jun 18 $609 +$10 +2%
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 31°C on June 18? Jun 18 $1 $0 -37%
Will the highest temperature in London be 24°C on June 17? Jun 18 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Panama City be 27°C on June 17? Jun 18 $249 +$2 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Panama City be 28°C on June 17? Jun 18 $137 +$1 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 22°C on June 17? Jun 17 $587 +$7 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Mexico City be 24°C on June 17? Jun 17 $198 +$5 +2%
Will the highest temperature in Mexico City be 23°C on June 17? Jun 17 $412 +$12 +3%
Will the highest temperature in Qingdao be 26°C on June 17? Jun 17 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Kuala Lumpur be 34°C on June 17? Jun 17 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 31°C or higher on June 17? Jun 17 $1 −$1 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the highest temperature in Panama City be 33°C on June 19? SELL No 100¢ $17 3h
Will the highest temperature in Panama City be 32°C on June 19? SELL Yes 100¢ $191 3h
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 24°C on June 20? BUY Yes 99¢ $520 3h
Will the highest temperature in Panama City be 33°C on June 19? BUY No 98¢ $5 12h
Will the highest temperature in Panama City be 33°C on June 19? BUY No 98¢ $7 12h
Will the highest temperature in Panama City be 33°C on June 19? BUY No 98¢ $5 13h
Will the highest temperature in Panama City be 32°C on June 19? BUY Yes 98¢ $187 13h
Will the highest temperature in London be 30°C on June 19? SELL Yes 100¢ $3 13h
Will the highest temperature in London be 30°C on June 19? SELL Yes 100¢ $74 13h
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 36°C on June 19? SELL Yes 100¢ $100 14h
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 34°C on June 19? SELL No 100¢ $282 14h
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 33°C on June 19? SELL Yes 100¢ $194 14h
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 36°C on June 19? BUY Yes 98¢ $41 15h
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 36°C on June 19? BUY Yes 98¢ $29 15h
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 36°C on June 19? BUY Yes 98¢ $8 15h
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 36°C on June 19? BUY Yes 86¢ $18 15h
Will the highest temperature in Cape Town be 22°C on June 19? SELL Yes 100¢ $189 15h
Will the highest temperature in Cape Town be 23°C on June 19? SELL No 100¢ $22 15h
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 33°C on June 19? BUY Yes 99¢ $193 15h
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 34°C on June 19? BUY No 99¢ $280 15h
Will the highest temperature in London be 30°C on June 19? BUY Yes 96¢ $74 15h
Will the highest temperature in Cape Town be 22°C on June 19? BUY Yes 99¢ $25 17h
Will the highest temperature in Cape Town be 22°C on June 19? BUY Yes 99¢ $132 17h
Will the highest temperature in Cape Town be 22°C on June 19? BUY Yes 99¢ $5 17h
Will the highest temperature in Cape Town be 23°C on June 19? BUY No 99¢ $5 18h
Will the highest temperature in Cape Town be 23°C on June 19? BUY No 99¢ $5 18h
Will the highest temperature in Cape Town be 22°C on June 19? BUY Yes 99¢ $15 18h
Will the highest temperature in Cape Town be 22°C on June 19? BUY Yes 99¢ $3 18h
Will the highest temperature in Cape Town be 23°C on June 19? BUY No 99¢ $12 18h
Will the highest temperature in Cape Town be 22°C on June 19? BUY Yes 99¢ $8 18h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $512.71 · official $512.71 (match) · 3500 history records