Wallet analysis

2026-06-20T05:49:52+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
1F 0x1f36…e974 sports 168 markets active 0h ago coverage 517d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialist
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$536 (-8%) realized −$534 · open −$2
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -8% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -16% what you keep after slip
Net edge-16%after slip
Net WR44%break-even
Win rate61%97W / 62L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$38per market
Trades / day0.6pace
Fees−$32est.
Kalshi-fit87%portable
Net worth$88now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$36
7 days−$233
14 days−$304
30 days−$304
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 74% −$181
other 18% −$187
crypto 7% −$157
world 1% −$52
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +44%
net ROI/market (all)-16.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 60 -6.5% -15.4% 58% 55% -18.7%
≤30d 111 -6.7% -15.6% 59% 51% -15.8%
≤90d 111 -6.7% -15.6% 59% 51% -15.8%
all 159 -7.7% -16.4% 61% 44% -17.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.6 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -16.4% 44% -17.9%
10% -24.4% 34% -25.7%
15% -31.7% 19% -32.9%
20% -38.4% 10% -39.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 10% · top 2 18% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -7% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
28% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -8% · $-wt -9% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -9% → late -6% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$8 vs −$22 · ×0.37 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.57 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

517d coverage
Net worth$88
Realized−$534
Unrealized−$2
Win rate (resolved)61%
Wins / losses97 / 62
Est. fees paid−$32
Open positions9
Markets (closed)159 / 168
History coverage517d
Avg bet$38
Trades / day0.6
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit87%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 9 History 159 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Counter-Strike: MASQ vs LPH Gaming (BO3) - United21 Group B LPH Gaming 67¢ 68¢ $10 $10 +$0 (+2%)
Counter-Strike: ECHO vs Inner Circle Esports (BO3) - Stake Ranked Episode 3: Closed Qualifier Playoffs Inner Circle Esports 69¢ 68¢ $10 $10 −$0 (-1%)
Valorant: EDward Gaming vs Leviatán Esports (BO5) - VCT Masters London Playoffs Leviatán Esports 68¢ 68¢ $10 $10 −$0 (-1%)
Counter-Strike: Infinite vs Walczaki (BO3) - European Pro League Series 7 Playoffs Walczaki 61¢ 60¢ $10 $10 −$0 (-2%)
Counter-Strike: KOLESIE vs INOX Division (BO3) - European Pro League Series 7 Playoffs INOX Division 66¢ 64¢ $10 $10 −$0 (-2%)
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs Spirit 57¢ 56¢ $10 $10 −$0 (-3%)
Counter-Strike: xept vs Clutchain (BO3) - United21 Group B Clutchain 72¢ 69¢ $10 $10 −$0 (-3%)
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs FURIA (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs FURIA 61¢ 58¢ $10 $10 −$0 (-4%)
Counter-Strike: GenOne vs 100 Thieves (BO3) - CCT Europe Series #4 Playoffs 100 Thieves 75¢ 72¢ $10 $10 −$0 (-5%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 16 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $10 −$6 -59%
Minnesota Lynx vs. Golden State Valkyries Jun 20 $27 +$17 +61%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $18 +$2 +12%
Washington Mystics vs. New York Liberty Jun 20 $5 +$2 +38%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $10 +$7 +67%
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? Jun 19 $10 +$6 +62%
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs Jun 19 $30 −$8 -25%
Counter-Strike: K27 vs SHISHKA (BO3) - Stake Ranked Episode 3: Closed Jun 19 $10 +$3 +29%
Counter-Strike: Millennium Esports vs EAC Rising (BO3) - United21 Grou Jun 19 $10 +$3 +30%
Valorant: EDward Gaming vs Paper Rex (BO3) - VCT Masters London Playof Jun 19 $10 +$3 +32%
Counter-Strike: Coalesce vs eSuba (BO3) - United21 Group A Jun 19 $10 +$2 +21%
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Pla Jun 19 $10 −$10 -99%
Valorant: Stray Kittens vs LAZER (BO3) - VCL Latin America North: Regu Jun 19 $10 +$3 +34%
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-18? Jun 19 $5 −$5 -92%
Valorant: M80 vs SaD Esports (BO3) - VCL North America: Stage 3 Group Jun 19 $10 +$3 +30%
Will Canada win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $10 +$3 +29%
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs Jun 18 $10 +$3 +34%
Counter-Strike: 100 Thieves vs Leo Team (BO3) - CCT Europe Series #4 P Jun 18 $10 +$3 +27%
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $10 +$6 +57%
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs BetBoom Team (BO3) - IEM Cologne Majo Jun 18 $10 +$8 +76%
Counter-Strike: Passion Academy vs ex-MANA eSports (BO3) - United21 Gr Jun 18 $10 +$2 +23%
Counter-Strike: Gentle Mates vs KOLESIE (BO3) - CCT Europe Series #4 P Jun 18 $10 +$4 +39%
Counter-Strike: JiJieHao vs Phantom (BO3) - Stake Ranked Episode 3: Cl Jun 18 $10 −$10 -99%
Counter-Strike: TDK vs Ursa (BO3) - CCT Europe Series #4 Playoffs Jun 18 $10 +$3 +27%
Counter-Strike: FOKUS vs Noir Verse (BO3) - Stake Ranked Episode 3: Cl Jun 18 $10 +$1 +11%
Counter-Strike: Ground Zero vs Rooster (BO3) - Dfrag Open Series #5 Pl Jun 18 $10 −$10 -99%
Minnesota Lynx vs. Los Angeles Sparks Jun 18 $10 +$2 +24%
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-17? Jun 18 $11 +$4 +34%
Dallas Wings vs. Golden State Valkyries Jun 18 $10 +$7 +68%
New York Liberty vs. Chicago Sky Jun 18 $10 +$2 +21%
Cleveland Guardians vs. Milwaukee Brewers Jun 18 $67 +$7 +11%
Las Vegas Aces vs. Phoenix Mercury Jun 18 $10 −$4 -39%
Valorant: University War vs KRÜ Blaze (BO3) - VCL Latin America South: Jun 18 $20 +$2 +12%
Toronto Blue Jays vs. Boston Red Sox Jun 18 $47 −$2 -4%
Valorant: Dynamo Esports vs ROSE (BO3) - VCL North America: Stage 3 Gr Jun 17 $10 −$4 -38%
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $20 −$20 -100%
Will England win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $15 +$11 +73%
Valorant: So:sweet vs Dplus (BO3) - VCL Korea: Regular Season Jun 17 $10 +$7 +67%
Valorant: Gen.G Global Academy vs ONSIDE GAMING (BO3) - VCL Korea: Reg Jun 17 $10 +$6 +63%
Valorant: KRÜ Spark vs BESTIA (BO3) - VCL Latin America South: Regular Jun 17 $10 −$10 -99%
Will Austria win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $10 −$5 -47%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $93 +$9 +9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:20PM-10:25PM ET Jun 16 $5 −$5 -100%
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? Jun 16 $84 −$52 -62%
Will New Zealand win on 2026-06-15? Jun 16 $85 −$52 -61%
Las Vegas Aces vs. Dallas Wings Jun 16 $70 −$56 -80%
Will Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay end in a draw? Jun 16 $123 +$47 +38%
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $296 −$62 -21%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 15 $20 −$20 -99%
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs FUT Esports (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Jun 15 $10 −$10 -99%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playo BUY Spirit 57¢ $10 9m
Counter-Strike: Infinite vs Walczaki (BO3) - European Pro League Serie BUY Walczaki 61¢ $10 10m
Valorant: EDward Gaming vs Leviatán Esports (BO5) - VCT Masters London BUY Leviatán Esports 68¢ $10 10m
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-19? SELL Yes 20¢ $4 1h
Minnesota Lynx vs. Golden State Valkyries SELL Minnesota Lynx 100¢ $37 1h
Minnesota Lynx vs. Golden State Valkyries BUY Minnesota Lynx 43¢ $16 3h
Minnesota Lynx vs. Golden State Valkyries SELL Minnesota Lynx 38¢ $7 3h
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-19? SELL Yes 100¢ $20 3h
Counter-Strike: GenOne vs 100 Thieves (BO3) - CCT Europe Series #4 Pla BUY 100 Thieves 75¢ $10 4h
Counter-Strike: ECHO vs Inner Circle Esports (BO3) - Stake Ranked Epis BUY Inner Circle Esports 69¢ $10 4h
Counter-Strike: MASQ vs LPH Gaming (BO3) - United21 Group B BUY LPH Gaming 67¢ $10 4h
Counter-Strike: KOLESIE vs INOX Division (BO3) - European Pro League S BUY INOX Division 66¢ $10 4h
Counter-Strike: xept vs Clutchain (BO3) - United21 Group B BUY Clutchain 72¢ $10 4h
Minnesota Lynx vs. Golden State Valkyries BUY Minnesota Lynx 58¢ $11 4h
Washington Mystics vs. New York Liberty SELL Washington Mystics 87¢ $7 4h
Washington Mystics vs. New York Liberty BUY Washington Mystics 62¢ $5 4h
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs FURIA (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playo BUY FURIA 61¢ $10 6h
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 47¢ $10 6h
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 59¢ $10 12h
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 61¢ $10 12h
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 89¢ $18 12h
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs SELL Spirit 34¢ $9 12h
Counter-Strike: Millennium Esports vs EAC Rising (BO3) - United21 Grou SELL Millennium Esports 100¢ $13 13h
Valorant: EDward Gaming vs Paper Rex (BO3) - VCT Masters London Playof SELL Paper Rex 100¢ $13 13h
Counter-Strike: Coalesce vs eSuba (BO3) - United21 Group A SELL eSuba 81¢ $12 21h
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Pla BUY Vitality 71¢ $10 23h
Valorant: EDward Gaming vs Paper Rex (BO3) - VCT Masters London Playof BUY Paper Rex 75¢ $10 23h
Valorant: Stray Kittens vs LAZER (BO3) - VCL Latin America North: Regu SELL LAZER 100¢ $13 24h
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-18? SELL Yes 2¢ $0 27h
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs BUY Spirit 75¢ $10 28h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $88.19 · official $88.20 (match) · 371 history records