Wallet analysis

2026-06-20T11:16:46+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.5
score
1F 0x1f39…8c3b other 28 markets active 6h ago coverage 4d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL +$7 (+3%) realized +$4 · open +$3
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -2% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -18% what you keep after slip
Net edge-18%after slip
Net WR23%break-even
Win rate77%10W / 3L
Drawdown41%max
Avg bet$7per market
Trades / day10.0pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit21%portable
Net worth$104now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 4d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
other 89% +$8
sports 10% −$1
crypto 1% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +23%
net ROI/market (all)-11.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 13 -1.7% -11.0% 77% 23% -6.9%
≤30d 13 -1.7% -11.0% 77% 23% -6.9%
≤90d 13 -1.7% -11.0% 77% 23% -6.9%
all 13 -1.7% -11.0% 77% 23% -6.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover10.0 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -11.0% 23% -6.9%
10% -19.5% 0% -15.9%
15% -27.3% 0% -24.0%
20% -34.4% 0% -31.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 45% · top 2 67% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +3% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
70% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -2% · $-wt +3% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +4% → late -7% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$1 · ×0.56 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.87 per $1 lost it wins $1.87
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

4d coverage
Net worth$104
Realized+$4
Unrealized+$3
Win rate (resolved)77%
Wins / losses10 / 3
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions15
Markets (closed)13 / 28
History coverage4d
Avg bet$7
Trades / day10.0
Drawdown41%
Kalshi-fit21%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 15 History 13 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Mexico reach the 2026 FIFA World Cup final? No 94¢ 94¢ $19 $19 −$0 (-0%)
Will Morocco advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 93¢ 100¢ $13 $14 +$1 (+7%)
Will Belgium advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 95¢ 95¢ $13 $13 +$0 (+0%)
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 17¢ 19¢ $8 $9 +$1 (+9%)
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 10¢ 12¢ $6 $7 +$1 (+18%)
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 14¢ 14¢ $7 $7 −$0 (-2%)
Will Panama advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 67¢ 90¢ $5 $7 +$2 (+35%)
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 11¢ 13¢ $5 $6 +$1 (+18%)
Will Uruguay be eliminated in the Semifinals of the World Cup? No 95¢ 94¢ $6 $5 −$0 (-1%)
Will Japan reach the 2026 FIFA World Cup final? No 95¢ 95¢ $5 $5 −$0 (-0%)
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 11¢ 7¢ $5 $3 −$2 (-33%)
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 6¢ 6¢ $3 $3 +$0 (+1%)
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 7¢ 6¢ $3 $3 −$0 (-10%)
Will Japan advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 85¢ 86¢ $2 $2 +$0 (+1%)
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 5¢ 4¢ $2 $2 −$0 (-14%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Haiti advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 20 $1 $0 +3%
Canada vs. Qatar: O/U 3.5 Jun 19 $4 $0 +6%
Canada vs. Qatar: O/U 4.5 Jun 18 $1 $0 -45%
Uzbekistan vs. Colombia: O/U 0.5 Jun 18 $5 $0 +6%
Ghana vs. Panama: O/U 0.5 Jun 18 $6 −$2 -28%
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $30 +$1 +5%
Portugal vs. DR Congo: Portugal O/U 0.5 Jun 17 $5 $0 +9%
Will DR Congo win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $12 $0 +1%
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $5 −$1 -24%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $14 +$3 +21%
Will Algeria win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $6 +$1 +11%
Will Iraq win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $14 $0 +1%
Will Senegal win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $1 $0 +14%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Mexico reach the 2026 FIFA World Cup final? BUY No 94¢ $1 6h
Will Mexico reach the 2026 FIFA World Cup final? BUY No 94¢ $10 34h
Will Japan advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 85¢ $2 35h
Will Belgium advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup BUY Yes 96¢ $3 35h
Canada vs. Qatar: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 94¢ $4 35h
Canada vs. Qatar: O/U 4.5 SELL Under 27¢ $1 36h
Canada vs. Qatar: O/U 4.5 BUY Under 47¢ $1 36h
Will Haiti advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 96¢ $1 36h
Will Uruguay be eliminated in the Semifinals of the World Cup? BUY No 95¢ $6 2d
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 12¢ $1 2d
Will Japan reach the 2026 FIFA World Cup final? BUY No 95¢ $5 2d
Will Mexico reach the 2026 FIFA World Cup final? BUY No 94¢ $8 2d
Will Panama advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 67¢ $5 2d
Will Belgium advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup BUY Yes 95¢ $10 2d
Will Morocco advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup BUY Yes 93¢ $13 2d
Ghana vs. Panama: O/U 0.5 SELL Over 66¢ $4 2d
Ghana vs. Panama: O/U 0.5 BUY Over 90¢ $6 2d
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-17? BUY No 95¢ $30 2d
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? SELL Yes 60¢ $4 2d
Will DR Congo win on 2026-06-17? BUY No 98¢ $12 2d
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 77¢ $5 2d
Uzbekistan vs. Colombia: O/U 0.5 BUY Over 94¢ $5 2d
Portugal vs. DR Congo: Portugal O/U 0.5 BUY Over 91¢ $5 2d
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 82¢ $14 3d
Will Iraq win on 2026-06-16? BUY No 98¢ $14 3d
Will Algeria win on 2026-06-16? BUY No 89¢ $5 3d
Will Algeria win on 2026-06-16? BUY No 89¢ $1 3d
Will Senegal win on 2026-06-16? BUY No 87¢ $1 3d
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 5¢ $2 3d
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 6¢ $3 3d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $104.32 · official $104.32 (match) · 50 history records