Wallet analysis

2026-06-20T04:01:24+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

1.0
score
1F 0x1f3b…b190 other 60 markets active 1h ago coverage 114d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$2,805 (-24%) realized −$2,747 · open −$58
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -24% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -31% what you keep after slip
Net edge-31%after slip
Net WR25%break-even
Win rate25%15W / 44L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$197per market
Trades / day0.7pace
Fees−$61est.
Kalshi-fit45%portable
Net worth$342now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$542
7 days+$279
14 days+$529
30 days+$529
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 54% −$114
other 46% −$2,247
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +25%
net ROI/market (all)-31.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 3 +131.9% +109.8% 33% 33% +61.8%
≤30d 5 +95.6% +76.9% 40% 40% +61.7%
≤90d 46 -44.3% -49.6% 17% 17% -51.3%
all 59 -24.0% -31.3% 25% 25% -27.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.7 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -31.3% 25% -27.9%
10% -37.8% 25% -34.8%
15% -43.8% 25% -41.1%
20% -49.4% 25% -46.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 17% · top 2 27% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -46% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -24% · $-wt -20% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +21% → late -67% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$365 vs −$177 · ×2.07 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×0.7 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

114d coverage
Net worth$342
Realized−$2,747
Unrealized−$58
Win rate (resolved)25%
Wins / losses15 / 44
Est. fees paid−$61
Open positions1
Markets (closed)59 / 60
History coverage114d
Avg bet$197
Trades / day0.7
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit45%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 59 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Exact Score: Türkiye 3 - 2 Paraguay? Yes 3¢ 3¢ $400 $342 −$58 (-14%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 8 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Exact Score: Brazil 3 - 0 Haiti? Jun 20 $91 +$542 +596%
Exact Score: Australia 1 - 0 Türkiye? Jun 14 $170 −$165 -97%
Exact Score: Brazil 0 - 0 Morocco? Jun 13 $100 −$97 -97%
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-12? Jun 12 $120 −$117 -98%
Bahcesehir Koleji vs. Besiktas Jun 06 $202 +$368 +182%
Will Eyüpspor win on 2026-05-17? May 17 $174 −$169 -97%
Will Genoa CFC win on 2026-05-17? May 17 $152 −$149 -98%
Will Fenerbahçe SK win on 2026-04-26? Apr 26 $266 −$259 -97%
Will Fenerbahçe win the Süper Lig? Apr 19 $199 −$199 -100%
Spread: Real Madrid CF (-1.5) Apr 15 $498 −$485 -97%
Will Elon Musk post 380-399 tweets from March 6 to March 13, 2026? Apr 15 $25 −$25 -100%
Eyüpspor vs. Trabzonspor: Both Teams to Score Apr 15 $58 −$58 -100%
Will Galatasaray SK win on 2026-04-08? Apr 15 $50 −$50 -100%
Carlos Alcaraz vs. Valentin Vacherot: Total Sets O/U 2.5 Apr 15 $90 −$90 -100%
Girona FC vs. Athletic Club: Both Teams to Score Apr 15 $160 −$160 -100%
VfB Stuttgart vs. RB Leipzig: Both Teams to Score Apr 15 $160 −$160 -100%
Will Leeds United FC win on 2026-03-15? Apr 15 $27 −$27 -100%
Will Trabzonspor win on 2026-04-11? Apr 15 $100 −$100 -100%
Galatasaray SK vs. Rams Başakşehir FK: Both Teams to Score Apr 15 $69 −$69 -100%
Fatih Karagümrük SK vs. Fenerbahçe SK: Both Teams to Score Apr 15 $300 −$300 -100%
Will AC Milan win on 2026-03-15? Apr 15 $100 −$100 -100%
Udinese Calcio vs. Juventus FC: Both Teams to Score Apr 15 $300 −$300 -100%
Antalyaspor vs. Eyüpspor: Both Teams to Score Apr 15 $164 −$164 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from March 31 to April 7, 2026? Apr 15 $60 −$60 -100%
Fenerbahçe SK vs. Beşiktaş JK: O/U 2.5 Apr 15 $191 −$191 -100%
Will Atalanta BC win on 2026-04-11? Apr 15 $300 −$300 -100%
Gençlerbirliği SK vs. Beşiktaş JK: Both Teams to Score Apr 15 $200 −$200 -100%
Will Sporting CP win on 2026-04-07? Apr 15 $198 −$198 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from March 12 to March 14, 2026? Apr 15 $60 −$60 -100%
Carlos Alcaraz vs. Jannik Sinner: Total Sets O/U 2.5 Apr 15 $601 −$601 -100%
Will Atalanta BC win on 2026-03-18? Apr 15 $55 −$55 -100%
Rolex Monte Carlo Masters: Carlos Alcaraz vs Valentin Vacherot Apr 15 $260 −$260 -100%
Will Beşiktaş JK win on 2026-03-07? Apr 15 $868 −$868 -100%
Will Grayscale be accused of insider trading? Apr 15 $185 −$185 -100%
Atalanta BC vs. Juventus FC: O/U 2.5 Apr 15 $100 −$100 -100%
Real Madrid CF vs. Manchester City FC: Both Teams to Score Apr 15 $300 −$300 -100%
Will Manchester City FC win on 2026-03-14? Apr 15 $200 −$200 -100%
Real Madrid CF vs. Girona FC: O/U 2.5 Apr 15 $169 −$169 -100%
Will San Jose Earthquakes win on 2026-03-15? Apr 15 $301 −$301 -100%
Genius FDV above $1B one day after launch? Apr 15 $200 −$200 -100%
Rolex Monte Carlo Masters: Valentin Vacherot vs Alex de Minaur Apr 10 $150 +$270 +180%
Will Elon Musk post 260-279 tweets from March 31 to April 7, 2026? Apr 07 $100 +$58 +58%
Eintracht Frankfurt vs. 1. FC Köln: Both Teams to Score Apr 05 $150 +$291 +194%
Will Trabzonspor win on 2026-04-04? Apr 04 $432 +$931 +216%
Gaziantep FK vs. Alanyaspor: Both Teams to Score Apr 04 $302 +$431 +143%
Manchester United FC vs. Aston Villa FC: Both Teams to Score Apr 04 $200 +$388 +194%
Will Bayer 04 Leverkusen vs. FC Bayern München end in a draw? Mar 14 $300 +$168 +56%
Kocaelispor vs. Konyaspor: Both Teams to Score Mar 14 $94 +$290 +310%
Will Elon Musk post 90-114 tweets from March 12 to March 14, 2026? Mar 14 $96 −$19 -20%
Deportivo Alavés vs. Villarreal CF: Both Teams to Score Mar 13 $300 +$235 +78%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Exact Score: Türkiye 3 - 2 Paraguay? BUY Yes 3¢ $412 1h
Exact Score: Brazil 3 - 0 Haiti? SELL Yes 100¢ $632 1h
Exact Score: Brazil 3 - 0 Haiti? BUY Yes 14¢ $91 17h
Exact Score: Australia 1 - 0 Türkiye? BUY Yes 7¢ $170 6d
Exact Score: Brazil 0 - 0 Morocco? BUY Yes 9¢ $100 6d
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-12? BUY Yes 20¢ $120 7d
Bahcesehir Koleji vs. Besiktas SELL Bahcesehir Koleji 100¢ $570 13d
Bahcesehir Koleji vs. Besiktas BUY Bahcesehir Koleji 35¢ $202 13d
Will Eyüpspor win on 2026-05-17? BUY Yes 11¢ $174 33d
Will Genoa CFC win on 2026-05-17? BUY Yes 19¢ $152 33d
Will Fenerbahçe SK win on 2026-04-26? BUY Yes 8¢ $266 54d
Will Fenerbahçe win the Süper Lig? BUY Yes 19¢ $199 61d
Spread: Real Madrid CF (-1.5) BUY Real Madrid CF 11¢ $498 65d
Genius FDV above $1B one day after launch? BUY Yes 6¢ $200 67d
Carlos Alcaraz vs. Jannik Sinner: Total Sets O/U 2.5 BUY Over 2.5 47¢ $601 68d
Atalanta BC vs. Juventus FC: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 21¢ $100 69d
Will Atalanta BC win on 2026-04-11? BUY Yes 38¢ $300 69d
Will Trabzonspor win on 2026-04-11? BUY Yes 24¢ $100 69d
Rolex Monte Carlo Masters: Carlos Alcaraz vs Valentin Vacherot BUY Valentin Vacherot 7¢ $260 69d
Carlos Alcaraz vs. Valentin Vacherot: Total Sets O/U 2.5 BUY Over 2.5 25¢ $90 69d
Real Madrid CF vs. Girona FC: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 38¢ $169 70d
Rolex Monte Carlo Masters: Valentin Vacherot vs Alex de Minaur SELL Valentin Vacherot 100¢ $420 70d
Rolex Monte Carlo Masters: Valentin Vacherot vs Alex de Minaur BUY Valentin Vacherot 35¢ $150 70d
Will Galatasaray SK win on 2026-04-08? BUY No 23¢ $50 72d
Will Sporting CP win on 2026-04-07? BUY Yes 22¢ $198 73d
Will Elon Musk post 260-279 tweets from March 31 to April 7, 2026? SELL Yes 100¢ $158 73d
Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from March 31 to April 7, 2026? BUY Yes 8¢ $60 74d
Will Elon Musk post 260-279 tweets from March 31 to April 7, 2026? BUY Yes 62¢ $100 74d
Fenerbahçe SK vs. Beşiktaş JK: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 25¢ $191 75d
Eintracht Frankfurt vs. 1. FC Köln: Both Teams to Score SELL Yes 100¢ $441 75d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
≈ Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $342.07 · official $354.08 · 118 history records