Wallet analysis

2026-06-12T19:30:42+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

1F
0x1f3d…aff5
sports · 14 markets active 1h ago
6.5score
+$3 +6%
TOTAL PnL · realized +$2 · open +$1
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP sports specialist⚠ Small sample
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Net worth$4
Realized+$2
Unrealized+$1
Win rate (resolved)62%
Wins / losses8 / 5
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions1
Markets (closed)13 / 14
History coverage210d
Avg bet$3
Trades / day0.1
Drawdown80%
Kalshi-fit93%
Chart Positions 1 History 13 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days$0
14 days$0
30 days−$1
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Canada vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: O/U 2.5 Over 42¢ 64¢ $3 $4 +$1 (+54%)
Jets vs. Kraken Jets 82¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Indian Premier League: Sunrisers Hyderabad vs Punjab Kings Punjab Kings 39¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Indian Premier League: Gujarat Titans vs Chennai Super Kings May 21 $4 $0 +4%
Indian Premier League: Rajasthan Royals vs Lucknow Super Giants May 19 $6 −$6 -98%
Indian Premier League: Chennai Super Kings vs Sunrisers Hyderabad May 18 $8 +$3 +37%
Indian Premier League: Punjab Kings vs Royal Challengers Bengaluru May 17 $5 +$2 +36%
Indian Premier League: Sunrisers Hyderabad vs Punjab Kings May 06 $2 −$2 -98%
Indian Premier League: Delhi Capitals vs Chennai Super Kings May 05 $6 +$1 +26%
Indian Premier League: Mumbai Indians vs Lucknow Super Giants May 04 $2 +$2 +105%
Indian Premier League: Gujarat Titans vs Punjab Kings May 03 $3 −$1 -29%
Indian Premier League: Chennai Super Kings vs Mumbai Indians May 02 $4 +$1 +16%
Indian Premier League: Rajasthan Royals vs Delhi Capitals May 01 $3 +$2 +69%
Will Henan FC win on 2026-05-01? May 01 $1 $0 -2%
Indian Premier League: Gujarat Titans vs Royal Challengers Bengaluru May 01 $1 +$1 +65%
Jets vs. Kraken Nov 14 $1 −$1 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
sports 98% +$3
other 2% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Canada vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 42¢ $3 1h
Indian Premier League: Gujarat Titans vs Chennai Super Kings SELL Gujarat Titans 78¢ $4 22d
Indian Premier League: Gujarat Titans vs Chennai Super Kings BUY Gujarat Titans 74¢ $4 22d
Indian Premier League: Rajasthan Royals vs Lucknow Super Giants SELL Lucknow Super Giants 1¢ $0 24d
Indian Premier League: Rajasthan Royals vs Lucknow Super Giants BUY Lucknow Super Giants 52¢ $6 24d
Indian Premier League: Chennai Super Kings vs Sunrisers Hyderabad SELL Sunrisers Hyderabad 81¢ $10 25d
Indian Premier League: Chennai Super Kings vs Sunrisers Hyderabad BUY Sunrisers Hyderabad 58¢ $8 25d
Indian Premier League: Punjab Kings vs Royal Challengers Bengaluru SELL Royal Challengers Bengaluru 87¢ $7 26d
Indian Premier League: Punjab Kings vs Royal Challengers Bengaluru BUY Royal Challengers Bengaluru 63¢ $5 26d
Indian Premier League: Sunrisers Hyderabad vs Punjab Kings BUY Punjab Kings 39¢ $2 37d
Indian Premier League: Delhi Capitals vs Chennai Super Kings SELL Chennai Super Kings 100¢ $7 38d
Indian Premier League: Delhi Capitals vs Chennai Super Kings BUY Chennai Super Kings 79¢ $6 38d
Indian Premier League: Mumbai Indians vs Lucknow Super Giants SELL Mumbai Indians 88¢ $4 39d
Indian Premier League: Mumbai Indians vs Lucknow Super Giants BUY Mumbai Indians 42¢ $2 39d
Indian Premier League: Gujarat Titans vs Punjab Kings SELL Gujarat Titans 64¢ $2 40d
Indian Premier League: Gujarat Titans vs Punjab Kings BUY Gujarat Titans 89¢ $3 40d
Indian Premier League: Chennai Super Kings vs Mumbai Indians SELL Chennai Super Kings 100¢ $4 41d
Indian Premier League: Chennai Super Kings vs Mumbai Indians BUY Chennai Super Kings 86¢ $4 41d
Indian Premier League: Rajasthan Royals vs Delhi Capitals SELL Delhi Capitals 96¢ $4 42d
Indian Premier League: Rajasthan Royals vs Delhi Capitals BUY Delhi Capitals 56¢ $3 42d
Will Henan FC win on 2026-05-01? SELL Yes 89¢ $1 42d
Will Henan FC win on 2026-05-01? BUY Yes 90¢ $1 42d
Indian Premier League: Gujarat Titans vs Royal Challengers Bengaluru BUY Gujarat Titans 60¢ $1 43d
Jets vs. Kraken BUY Jets 82¢ $1 210d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +54%
net ROI/market (all)-7.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d no closed markets
≤30d 4 -5.3% -14.3% 75% 50% -14.1%
≤90d 12 +10.6% +0.1% 67% 58% -3.9%
all 13 +2.1% -7.6% 62% 54% -6.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover0.1 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -7.6% 54% -6.0%
10% -16.5% 46% -15.0%
15% -24.5% 38% -23.2%
20% -31.9% 23% -30.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $3.84 · official $3.84 (match) · 25 history records