Wallet analysis

2026-06-21T05:43:56+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.0
score
1F 0x1f3e…a169 world 51 markets active 2h ago coverage 272d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL +$11 (+1%) realized +$12 · open −$1
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +2% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -8% what you keep after slip
Net edge-8%after slip
Net WR6%break-even
Win rate40%20W / 30L
Drawdown25%max
Avg bet$28per market
Trades / day0.7pace
Kalshi-fit80%portable
Net worth$45now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$1
7 days+$2
14 days+$2
30 days+$2
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 51% +$10
other 17% $0
politics 17% $0
culture 4% $0
tech 4% $0
crypto 4% $0
sports 3% $0
economics 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +6%
net ROI/market (all)-8.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 8 +0.6% -9.0% 38% 0% -9.0%
≤30d 16 +2.8% -7.0% 44% 6% -9.1%
≤90d 23 +2.9% -6.9% 52% 9% -8.4%
all 50 +1.6% -8.1% 40% 6% -8.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.7 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -8.1% 6% -8.8%
10% -16.9% 2% -17.6%
15% -24.9% 2% -25.5%
20% -32.3% 0% -32.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 41% · top 2 56% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
85% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +2% · $-wt +1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +1% → late +2% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.6 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$0 · ×2.1 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×2.62 per $1 lost it wins $2.62
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

272d coverage
Net worth$45
Realized+$12
Unrealized−$1
Win rate (resolved)40%
Wins / losses20 / 30
Open positions1
Markets (closed)50 / 51
History coverage272d
Avg bet$28
Trades / day0.7
Drawdown25%
Kalshi-fit80%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 50 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Cuban regime falls in 2026? No 82¢ 81¢ $46 $45 −$1 (-1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 20 $46 $0 -0%
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by July 31? Jun 20 $50 +$1 +1%
China x Philippines military clash before 2027? Jun 20 $45 $0 -0%
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? Jun 19 $1 $0 +0%
Will Ukraine recapture Crimean territory by December 31, 2026? Jun 19 $45 $0 +0%
Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 Jun 19 $23 $0 +1%
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? Jun 18 $39 +$1 +2%
Putin out as President of Russia by December 31, 2026? Jun 18 $56 $0 -0%
Will Alberta join the US? May 27 $3 $0 +2%
US-Iran nuclear deal by May 31? May 26 $19 −$1 -6%
Will Reza Pahlavi enter Iran by June 30? May 26 $44 $0 +0%
Iran closes its airspace by May 31? May 26 $46 −$2 -4%
Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027? May 25 $7 $0 +0%
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027? May 24 $3 $0 +6%
Will Trump agree to Iranian transit fees in the Strait of Hormuz by Ma May 24 $66 +$3 +4%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May? May 23 $2 +$1 +39%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? May 21 $89 +$1 +2%
Iran leadership change by May 31? May 21 $42 $0 +1%
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia May 20 $39 −$2 -5%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by May 31, 2026? May 20 $48 $0 +1%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra May 19 $16 +$1 +5%
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by May 31? May 19 $47 $0 +0%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? May 18 $37 +$7 +19%
Will Ali Khamenei be the first leader out in 2025? Oct 24 $7 $0 -6%
Will Bruno Mars be the top Spotify artist for 2025? Oct 02 $29 $0 +0%
Will Gabriela Firea be the next Mayor of Bucharest? Oct 02 $43 $0 +0%
Will Marco Rubio win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Oct 02 $6 $0 +0%
Will the Milwaukee Brewers win the 2025 World Series? Oct 02 $25 $0 -1%
Will the Green Bay Packers win Super Bowl 2026? Oct 01 $2 $0 +1%
Will Villarreal win the 2025–26 La Liga? Sep 30 $1 $0 +9%
Will the Sacramento Kings win the 2026 NBA Finals? Sep 30 $2 $0 -7%
Lisa Cook out as Fed Governor by September 30? Sep 29 $7 $0 +0%
Will Ana-Maria Ciceală be the next Mayor of Bucharest? Sep 29 $18 $0 -0%
Will the Detroit Lions win Super Bowl 2026? Sep 29 $8 +$1 +16%
Will Atletico Madrid win the 2025–26 Champions League? Sep 29 $5 $0 +0%
Will Juventus win the 2025–26 Champions League? Sep 28 $20 $0 +0%
Will J.B. Pritzker win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Sep 28 $27 $0 +0%
Will Zootopia 2 be the top grossing movie of 2025? Sep 27 $27 $0 -0%
Will Ethereum dip to $1,000 by December 31? Sep 26 $27 $0 -0%
Will the Toronto Blue Jays win the 2025 World Series? Sep 26 $28 $0 -1%
Will Andy Beshear win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Sep 26 $28 $0 +0%
Will Ethereum reach $5200 in September? Sep 25 $28 $0 +0%
Will Tucker Carlson win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Sep 25 $28 $0 +0%
Will Trump sell 5k-10k Gold Cards in 2025? Sep 24 $27 $0 -0%
Will Manchester United win the 2025–26 English Premier League? Sep 24 $16 $0 +0%
Will Google have the top AI model on September 30? Sep 24 $28 $0 +0%
Will the Houston Astros win the 2025 World Series? Sep 24 $28 $0 -1%
Will Trump pardon Hunter Biden in 2025? Sep 23 $28 $0 +0%
Will Anthropic have the top AI model on December 31? Sep 23 $29 $0 +0%
Will Trump sell 10k-25k Gold Cards in 2025? Sep 22 $28 $0 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Cuban regime falls in 2026? BUY No 82¢ $46 1h
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 67¢ $38 6h
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 67¢ $5 6h
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 67¢ $3 6h
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 67¢ $46 7h
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by July 31? SELL No 75¢ $4 8h
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by July 31? SELL No 75¢ $8 8h
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by July 31? SELL No 75¢ $4 9h
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by July 31? SELL No 75¢ $11 9h
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by July 31? SELL No 75¢ $4 9h
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by July 31? SELL No 75¢ $4 9h
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by July 31? SELL No 75¢ $16 9h
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by July 31? BUY No 74¢ $50 18h
China x Philippines military clash before 2027? SELL No 78¢ $10 28h
China x Philippines military clash before 2027? SELL No 78¢ $8 28h
China x Philippines military clash before 2027? SELL No 78¢ $10 28h
China x Philippines military clash before 2027? SELL No 78¢ $17 28h
China x Philippines military clash before 2027? BUY No 79¢ $8 31h
China x Philippines military clash before 2027? BUY No 78¢ $37 31h
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? SELL Yes 11¢ $1 36h
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? BUY Yes 11¢ $1 37h
Will Ukraine recapture Crimean territory by December 31, 2026? SELL No 92¢ $12 42h
Will Ukraine recapture Crimean territory by December 31, 2026? SELL No 92¢ $33 42h
Will Ukraine recapture Crimean territory by December 31, 2026? BUY No 92¢ $12 44h
Will Ukraine recapture Crimean territory by December 31, 2026? BUY No 92¢ $33 44h
Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 SELL No 82¢ $24 2d
Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 BUY No 81¢ $23 2d
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? SELL No 91¢ $32 2d
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? BUY No 91¢ $32 2d
Putin out as President of Russia by December 31, 2026? SELL No 91¢ $43 3d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $45.36 · official $45.36 (match) · 197 history records