Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T11:22:00+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
1F 0x1f3f…daca crypto 522 markets active 1h ago coverage 24d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover
Total PnL −$1,248 (-8%) realized −$1,248 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -21% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -39% what you keep after slip
Net edge-39%after slip
Net WR31%break-even
Win rate39%204W / 318L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$30per market
Trades / day43.5pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$510
7 days−$1,035
14 days−$1,035
30 days−$2,525
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 100% −$2,525
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +31%
net ROI/market (all)-28.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 102 -14.2% -22.4% 38% 37% -27.1%
≤30d 522 -21.2% -28.7% 39% 31% -24.6%
≤90d 522 -21.2% -28.7% 39% 31% -24.6%
all 522 -21.2% -28.7% 39% 31% -24.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover43.5 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -28.7% 31% -24.6%
10% ← realistic here -35.5% 22% -31.8%
15% -41.8% 17% -38.4%
20% -47.5% 13% -44.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 7% · top 2 13% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -18% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
19% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -21% · $-wt -18% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -24% → late -19% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.8 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$25 vs −$24 · ×1.04 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.67 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

24d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$1,248
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)39%
Wins / losses204 / 318
Open positions0
Markets (closed)522 / 522
History coverage24d
Avg bet$30
Trades / day43.5
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 522 Trades
no open positions (245 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 6:00AM-6:15AM ET Jun 18 $100 −$94 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 6:00AM-6:05AM ET Jun 18 $146 −$139 -96%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 18, 5:45AM-6:00AM ET Jun 18 $5 −$2 -32%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 18, 5:55AM-6:00AM ET Jun 18 $50 −$47 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 5:55AM-6:00AM ET Jun 18 $131 −$125 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 5:45AM-6:00AM ET Jun 18 $167 −$94 -56%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 5:50AM-5:55AM ET Jun 18 $48 −$46 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 5:45AM-5:50AM ET Jun 18 $32 +$36 +114%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 5:40AM-5:45AM ET Jun 18 $104 +$188 +180%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 5:30AM-5:45AM ET Jun 18 $141 −$135 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 5:30AM-5:35AM ET Jun 18 $26 −$25 -96%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 18, 5:15AM-5:30AM ET Jun 18 $4 +$1 +33%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 18, 5:30AM-5:45AM ET Jun 18 $2 −$2 -96%
Solana Up or Down - June 18, 5:15AM-5:30AM ET Jun 18 $7 +$2 +27%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 5:25AM-5:30AM ET Jun 18 $22 −$21 -94%
XRP Up or Down - June 18, 5:20AM-5:25AM ET Jun 18 $2 −$2 -96%
XRP Up or Down - June 18, 5:15AM-5:30AM ET Jun 18 $1 −$1 -98%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 18, 5:00AM-5:15AM ET Jun 18 $11 −$1 -5%
Solana Up or Down - June 18, 5:00AM-5:15AM ET Jun 18 $2 −$2 -96%
Solana Up or Down - June 18, 4:45AM-5:00AM ET Jun 18 $5 +$1 +16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 4:45AM-5:00AM ET Jun 18 $2 −$2 -95%
Solana Up or Down - June 18, 4:30AM-4:45AM ET Jun 18 $5 $0 -8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 4:15AM-4:30AM ET Jun 18 $5 +$1 +20%
Solana Up or Down - June 18, 4:15AM-4:30AM ET Jun 18 $5 +$2 +36%
XRP Up or Down - June 18, 4:15AM-4:30AM ET Jun 18 $5 +$1 +20%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 4:30AM-4:45AM ET Jun 18 $2 −$2 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 4:00AM-4:15AM ET Jun 18 $15 +$2 +11%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 18, 4:00AM-4:15AM ET Jun 18 $1 $0 +38%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 18, 4:15AM-4:30AM ET Jun 18 $2 −$2 -96%
Solana Up or Down - June 18, 4:00AM-4:15AM ET Jun 18 $1 −$1 -97%
XRP Up or Down - June 18, 4:00AM-4:15AM ET Jun 18 $1 −$1 -98%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 18, 3:55AM-4:00AM ET Jun 18 $2 −$2 -96%
XRP Up or Down - June 18, 3:50AM-3:55AM ET Jun 18 $1 $0 +40%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 18, 3:50AM-3:55AM ET Jun 18 $5 +$1 +23%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 18, 3:45AM-3:50AM ET Jun 18 $1 +$1 +76%
Solana Up or Down - June 18, 3:45AM-3:50AM ET Jun 18 $1 +$1 +65%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 3:40AM-3:45AM ET Jun 18 $1 +$1 +76%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 3:45AM-4:00AM ET Jun 18 $1 −$1 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 6:00PM-6:05PM ET Jun 12 $16 −$15 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 5:45PM-6:00PM ET Jun 12 $123 −$99 -81%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 5:45PM-5:50PM ET Jun 12 $101 −$73 -72%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 5:30PM-5:45PM ET Jun 12 $123 −$118 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 5:30PM-5:35PM ET Jun 12 $131 −$102 -77%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 5:25PM-5:30PM ET Jun 12 $74 −$70 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 5:15PM-5:30PM ET Jun 12 $80 −$76 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 5:20PM-5:25PM ET Jun 12 $52 −$49 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 5:15PM-5:20PM ET Jun 12 $151 +$4 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 5:10PM-5:15PM ET Jun 12 $85 −$82 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 5:00PM-5:15PM ET Jun 12 $45 −$43 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 4:55PM-5:00PM ET Jun 12 $140 +$61 +44%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 6:00AM-6:15AM ET BUY Up 14¢ $100 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 6:00AM-6:05AM ET BUY Up 36¢ $146 1h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 18, 5:45AM-6:00AM ET BUY Down 91¢ $3 1h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 18, 5:45AM-6:00AM ET BUY Up 36¢ $2 1h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 18, 5:55AM-6:00AM ET BUY Up 16¢ $50 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 5:55AM-6:00AM ET BUY Up 28¢ $131 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 5:45AM-6:00AM ET BUY Up 19¢ $69 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 5:45AM-6:00AM ET BUY Up 33¢ $2 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 5:50AM-5:55AM ET BUY Up 34¢ $20 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 5:50AM-5:55AM ET BUY Up 27¢ $28 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 5:45AM-6:00AM ET BUY Up 36¢ $28 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 5:45AM-6:00AM ET SELL Down 64¢ $112 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 5:45AM-5:50AM ET SELL Down 58¢ $68 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 5:45AM-6:00AM ET BUY Down 36¢ $68 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 5:45AM-5:50AM ET BUY Down 25¢ $32 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 5:40AM-5:45AM ET BUY Down 50¢ $52 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 5:40AM-5:45AM ET BUY Down 26¢ $53 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 5:30AM-5:45AM ET BUY Down 24¢ $52 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 5:30AM-5:45AM ET BUY Down 30¢ $15 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 5:30AM-5:35AM ET BUY Down 43¢ $26 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 5:30AM-5:45AM ET BUY Down 36¢ $9 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 5:30AM-5:45AM ET BUY Down 38¢ $2 1h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 18, 5:30AM-5:45AM ET BUY Down 36¢ $2 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 5:30AM-5:45AM ET BUY Down 40¢ $64 1h
Solana Up or Down - June 18, 5:15AM-5:30AM ET BUY Down 83¢ $2 1h
Solana Up or Down - June 18, 5:15AM-5:30AM ET BUY Up 37¢ $3 1h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 18, 5:15AM-5:30AM ET BUY Up 38¢ $2 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 5:25AM-5:30AM ET BUY Up 7¢ $6 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 5:25AM-5:30AM ET BUY Up 8¢ $5 1h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 18, 5:15AM-5:30AM ET BUY Down 37¢ $2 1h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 1303 history records