Wallet analysis

2026-06-15T21:52:18+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
1F 0x1f3f…182b crypto 255 markets active 0h ago coverage 160d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL +$100 (+3%) realized +$114 · open −$14
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +8% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -10% what you keep after slip
Net edge-10%after slip
Net WR52%break-even
Win rate61%143W / 91L
Drawdown95%max
Avg bet$11per market
Trades / day15.7pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit67%portable
Net worth$111now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$8
7 days−$3
14 days−$3
30 days−$3
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 57% −$50
other 20% +$68
world 13% +$53
politics 4% −$1
tech 4% −$7
finance 1% +$4
sports 0% +$5
economics 0% +$3
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +52%
net ROI/market (all)-2.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 44 +4.3% -5.6% 52% 43% -11.0%
≤30d 44 +4.3% -5.6% 52% 43% -11.0%
≤90d 109 -20.4% -28.0% 43% 31% -12.5%
all 234 +8.1% -2.2% 61% 52% -6.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover15.7 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -2.2% 52% -6.5%
10% -11.6% 41% -15.5%
15% -20.1% 32% -23.6%
20% -27.9% 24% -31.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 12% · top 2 16% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -3% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
15% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +8% · $-wt +3% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +32% → late -16% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
6.9 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$4 vs −$5 · ×0.72 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.19 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

160d coverage
Net worth$111
Realized+$114
Unrealized−$14
Win rate (resolved)61%
Wins / losses143 / 91
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions21
Markets (closed)234 / 255
History coverage160d
Avg bet$11
Trades / day15.7
Drawdown95%
Kalshi-fit67%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 21 History 234 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 14¢ 17¢ $14 $17 +$2 (+16%)
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 16¢ 14¢ $16 $14 −$1 (-9%)
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 7¢ 11¢ $7 $11 +$4 (+56%)
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 12¢ 11¢ $12 $11 −$1 (-9%)
Hantavirus pandemic in 2026? No 91¢ 96¢ $9 $10 +$0 (+5%)
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 9¢ 8¢ $9 $8 −$1 (-8%)
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 9¢ 7¢ $9 $7 −$2 (-22%)
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 5¢ 6¢ $5 $6 +$1 (+19%)
Will Sweden win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 1¢ 1¢ $7 $6 −$1 (-19%)
Will SpaceX's valuation hit (LOW) $1.4T by June 30? Yes 7¢ 4¢ $6 $4 −$2 (-39%)
Will Gavin Newsom win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Yes 17¢ 16¢ $3 $3 −$0 (-4%)
Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 3¢ 2¢ $3 $2 −$0 (-12%)
Will the Sweden Democrats (SD) win the most seats in the 2026 Swedish parliamentary election? Yes 5¢ 4¢ $3 $2 −$1 (-26%)
Will SpaceX's valuation hit (LOW) $1.3T by June 30? Yes 5¢ 4¢ $3 $2 −$1 (-32%)
Will Curaçao win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $7 $2 −$5 (-71%)
Will SpaceX's valuation hit (LOW) $1.35T by June 30? Yes 4¢ 4¢ $2 $2 −$0 (-11%)
Will the Moderate Party (M) win the most seats in the 2026 Swedish parliamentary election? Yes 5¢ 3¢ $4 $2 −$2 (-50%)
Will Belgium win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 2¢ 2¢ $2 $2 −$0 (-8%)
Will Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Yes 5¢ 6¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+9%)
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-15? Yes 8¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-99%)
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? Yes 23¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 23 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:25PM-5:30PM ET Jun 15 $3 −$3 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:20PM-5:25PM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:15PM-5:20PM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:00PM-5:05PM ET Jun 15 $2 $0 +17%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:55PM-5:00PM ET Jun 15 $4 +$1 +28%
Will Belgium vs. Egypt end in a draw? Jun 15 $5 +$5 +102%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:40PM-4:45PM ET Jun 15 $4 −$2 -44%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:35PM-4:40PM ET Jun 15 $4 +$1 +28%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:20PM-4:25PM ET Jun 15 $3 +$2 +67%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:15PM-4:20PM ET Jun 15 $3 −$1 -22%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:10PM-4:15PM ET Jun 15 $3 $0 -9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:05PM-4:10PM ET Jun 15 $3 $0 +12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:00PM-4:05PM ET Jun 15 $1 $0 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:20PM-1:25PM ET Jun 15 $2 −$1 -52%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:25PM-1:30PM ET Jun 15 $1 $0 +42%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:15PM-1:20PM ET Jun 15 $2 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:10PM-1:15PM ET Jun 15 $4 −$4 -96%
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $12 −$12 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:05PM-1:10PM ET Jun 15 $1 +$1 +118%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:55PM-1:00PM ET Jun 15 $4 −$1 -27%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:50PM-12:55PM ET Jun 15 $4 +$2 +49%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:55PM-6:00PM ET Jun 15 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:30PM-12:35PM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:25PM-12:30PM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:00PM-12:05PM ET Jun 15 $5 −$5 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:55AM-12:00PM ET Jun 15 $7 −$2 -27%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:50AM-11:55AM ET Jun 15 $5 −$5 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:45AM-11:50AM ET Jun 15 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:40AM-11:45AM ET Jun 15 $6 −$5 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:35AM-11:40AM ET Jun 15 $5 −$5 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:30AM-11:35AM ET Jun 15 $5 +$23 +432%
Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 14 $5 +$1 +16%
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 14 $3 +$2 +55%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:00PM-6:05PM ET Jun 14 $5 +$24 +456%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $25 +$6 +25%
Will Japan win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $10 $0 +0%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $10 +$1 +10%
Will Curaçao win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $1 +$1 +62%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $3 −$3 -98%
Starmer out by June 30, 2026? Jun 13 $20 +$6 +30%
Will Qatar vs. Switzerland end in a draw? Jun 13 $1 $0 +17%
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $20 −$20 -100%
Will USA win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 13 $4 +$1 +21%
Will Canada win on 2026-06-12? Jun 12 $4 +$2 +36%
Will JD Vance win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 07 $9 $0 +5%
Will Marco Rubio win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 07 $6 +$3 +39%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of April? Apr 24 $311 +$66 +21%
Will Vance visit the Middle East by April 10? Apr 11 $29 +$2 +8%
Will Sweden win Group F in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 09 $1 $0 +8%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $60 in April? Apr 07 $4 $0 +9%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:25PM-5:30PM ET BUY Up 5¢ $1 25m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:25PM-5:30PM ET BUY Up 8¢ $1 25m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:25PM-5:30PM ET BUY Up 11¢ $1 26m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:20PM-5:25PM ET BUY Down 48¢ $1 31m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:15PM-5:20PM ET BUY Down 49¢ $1 34m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:00PM-5:05PM ET SELL Up 40¢ $1 47m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:00PM-5:05PM ET BUY Up 35¢ $1 48m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:00PM-5:05PM ET SELL Up 48¢ $1 50m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:00PM-5:05PM ET BUY Up 34¢ $1 50m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:55PM-5:00PM ET BUY Up 2¢ $1 52m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:55PM-5:00PM ET SELL Up 38¢ $4 53m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:55PM-5:00PM ET BUY Up 18¢ $1 54m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:55PM-5:00PM ET BUY Up 23¢ $1 54m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:55PM-5:00PM ET SELL Up 41¢ $1 55m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:55PM-5:00PM ET BUY Up 29¢ $1 55m
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 8¢ $1 59m
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 23¢ $2 1h
Will Belgium vs. Egypt end in a draw? SELL Yes 67¢ $7 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:40PM-4:45PM ET BUY Up 1¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:40PM-4:45PM ET BUY Up 26¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:40PM-4:45PM ET SELL Down 60¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:40PM-4:45PM ET BUY Down 45¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:40PM-4:45PM ET SELL Up 58¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:40PM-4:45PM ET BUY Up 51¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:35PM-4:40PM ET BUY Up 9¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:35PM-4:40PM ET SELL Up 35¢ $4 1h
Will Belgium vs. Egypt end in a draw? SELL Yes 50¢ $4 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:35PM-4:40PM ET BUY Up 15¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:35PM-4:40PM ET BUY Up 21¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:35PM-4:40PM ET SELL Up 38¢ $1 1h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $111.08 · official $111.11 (match) · 2720 history records