Wallet analysis

2026-06-19T15:28:45+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

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score
1F 0x1f40…66aa crypto 491 markets active 1h ago coverage 213d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialistFresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$109 (-2%) realized −$97 · open −$12
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -7% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -19% what you keep after slip
Net edge-19%after slip
Net WR38%break-even
Win rate40%195W / 290L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$14per market
Trades / day5.4pace
Fees−$29est.
Kalshi-fit92%portable
Net worth$13now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$104
7 days+$140
14 days+$142
30 days+$13
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 34% −$339
crypto 26% −$254
other 26% +$562
politics 9% −$51
world 4% −$111
weather 0% −$7
tech 0% −$3
culture 0% −$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +38%
net ROI/market (all)-16.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 21 +2.9% -6.9% 43% 38% +11.0%
≤30d 51 -1.0% -10.5% 43% 39% -8.7%
≤90d 184 +1.2% -8.4% 44% 38% +0.9%
all 485 -7.2% -16.1% 40% 38% -12.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover5.4 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -16.1% 38% -12.1%
10% -24.1% 34% -20.5%
15% -31.4% 32% -28.2%
20% -38.1% 30% -35.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 23% · top 2 34% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +12% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
6% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -7% · $-wt -3% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -16% → late +1% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.7 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$11 vs −$8 · ×1.36 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.92 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

213d coverage
Net worth$13
Realized−$97
Unrealized−$12
Win rate (resolved)40%
Wins / losses195 / 290
Est. fees paid−$29
Open positions4
Markets (closed)485 / 491
History coverage213d
Avg bet$14
Trades / day5.4
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit92%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 4 History 485 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 12¢ 13¢ $6 $6 +$0 (+6%)
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 16¢ 18¢ $5 $6 +$1 (+15%)
Will China invade Taiwan by June 30, 2026? Yes 1¢ 0¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-36%)
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs G2 - Map 1 Winner Spirit 51¢ 0¢ $13 $0 −$13 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 21 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 19 $31 −$3 -8%
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 19 $34 −$4 -10%
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs BetBoom Team - Map 2 Winner Jun 18 $35 +$12 +34%
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs BetBoom Team (BO3) - IEM Cologne Majo Jun 18 $101 +$63 +63%
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs BetBoom Team - Map 1 Winner Jun 18 $76 +$39 +51%
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-17? Jun 18 $25 +$10 +40%
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $93 +$2 +2%
Will England vs. Croatia end in a draw? Jun 17 $15 −$7 -48%
Spread: England (-1.5) Jun 17 $51 −$5 -10%
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $10 −$4 -36%
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 16 $8 $0 -6%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs G2 - Map 1 Winner Jun 15 $20 +$31 +152%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs G2 - Map 2 Winner Jun 15 $25 −$25 -99%
Map Handicap: NAVI (-1.5) vs G2 (+1.5) Jun 15 $10 −$10 -98%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 15 $25 −$25 -99%
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs FUT Esports - Map 2 Winner Jun 15 $58 +$48 +83%
Spread: Spain (-1.5) Jun 15 $10 −$10 -99%
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs FUT Esports - Map 1 Winner Jun 15 $25 +$32 +124%
Counter-Strike: 9z vs TheMongolz - Map 1 Winner Jun 15 $11 −$8 -68%
Will Brazil vs. Morocco end in a draw? Jun 14 $10 +$23 +226%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $20 −$20 -98%
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026? Jun 12 $158 +$9 +6%
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026? Jun 12 $40 −$31 -78%
Counter-Strike: FUT Esports vs G2 - Map 1 Winner Jun 12 $99 +$66 +67%
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? Jun 12 $31 −$1 -2%
Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026? Jun 12 $57 −$43 -75%
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs MOUZ (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 12 $62 +$41 +66%
Will a Claude Mythos model be released by June 10, 2026? Jun 09 $14 −$9 -61%
Will a Claude Mythos model be released by June 9, 2026? Jun 09 $40 −$30 -76%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 26, 2:00AM-2:05AM ET May 26 $62 −$59 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 26, 1:50AM-1:55AM ET May 26 $10 +$7 +70%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 26, 1:45AM-1:50AM ET May 26 $5 +$1 +20%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 26, 1:40AM-1:45AM ET May 26 $28 −$2 -7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 26, 1:35AM-1:40AM ET May 26 $26 −$21 -81%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 26, 1:30AM-1:35AM ET May 26 $13 −$12 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 26, 1:25AM-1:30AM ET May 26 $47 −$13 -28%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 26, 1:20AM-1:25AM ET May 26 $23 −$17 -74%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 26, 1:15AM-1:20AM ET May 26 $2 −$2 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 26, 1:10AM-1:15AM ET May 26 $39 −$30 -78%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 26, 1:05AM-1:10AM ET May 26 $26 −$4 -15%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 26, 1:00AM-1:05AM ET May 26 $3 +$19 +609%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 26, 12:55AM-1:00AM ET May 26 $52 +$46 +88%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 26, 12:50AM-12:55AM ET May 26 $21 −$16 -78%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 26, 12:45AM-12:50AM ET May 26 $14 +$4 +25%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 26, 12:35AM-12:40AM ET May 26 $32 −$31 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 26, 12:30AM-12:35AM ET May 26 $24 +$8 +33%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 26, 12:25AM-12:30AM ET May 26 $15 +$9 +62%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 26, 12:20AM-12:25AM ET May 26 $56 −$56 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 26, 12:15AM-12:20AM ET May 26 $76 +$11 +15%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 26, 12:10AM-12:15AM ET May 26 $29 +$16 +57%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 14¢ $2 46m
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 7¢ $3 46m
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs G2 - Map 1 Winner SELL Spirit 19¢ $33 49m
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs G2 - Map 1 Winner BUY Spirit 30¢ $8 59m
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs G2 - Map 1 Winner BUY Spirit 50¢ $41 1h
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs G2 - Map 1 Winner BUY Spirit 50¢ $28 1h
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs G2 - Map 1 Winner BUY Spirit 65¢ $30 4h
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 71¢ $25 41h
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 12¢ $6 41h
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 2¢ $3 41h
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 3¢ $5 41h
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 5¢ $5 42h
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 5¢ $7 42h
Will England vs. Croatia end in a draw? SELL Yes 19¢ $8 42h
Spread: England (-1.5) SELL Croatia 56¢ $46 42h
Will England vs. Croatia end in a draw? BUY Yes 35¢ $15 42h
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-17? SELL Yes 15¢ $13 42h
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-17? SELL Yes 15¢ $78 42h
Spread: England (-1.5) BUY Croatia 51¢ $20 43h
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 7¢ $37 43h
Spread: England (-1.5) BUY Croatia 69¢ $30 44h
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 18¢ $36 44h
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? SELL Yes 16¢ $6 44h
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 24¢ $10 44h
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs BetBoom Team (BO3) - IEM Cologne Majo BUY Aurora Gaming 55¢ $30 2d
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs BetBoom Team - Map 1 Winner BUY Aurora Gaming 52¢ $15 2d
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs BetBoom Team - Map 2 Winner BUY Aurora Gaming 59¢ $20 2d
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs BetBoom Team - Map 1 Winner BUY Aurora Gaming 52¢ $30 2d
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs BetBoom Team (BO3) - IEM Cologne Majo BUY Aurora Gaming 55¢ $51 2d
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 4¢ $8 2d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $12.76 · official $12.76 (match) · 1417 history records