Wallet analysis

2026-06-21T22:41:47+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
1F 0x1f44…27ca sports 20 markets active 2h ago coverage 7d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFading edge⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL −$584 (-44%) realized −$523 · open −$61
Gross ROI / mkt +3% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -10% what you keep after slip
Net edge-10%after slip
Net WR43%break-even
Win rate43%6W / 8L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$66per market
Trades / day4.6pace
Fees−$22est.
Kalshi-fit75%portable
Net worth$62now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 7d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 91% −$719
other 8% +$71
world 1% −$16
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +43%
net ROI/market (all)-6.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 14 +3.2% -6.6% 43% 43% -55.2%
≤30d 14 +3.2% -6.6% 43% 43% -55.2%
≤90d 14 +3.2% -6.6% 43% 43% -55.2%
all 14 +3.2% -6.6% 43% 43% -55.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover4.6 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -6.6% 43% -55.2%
10% -15.5% 43% -59.4%
15% -23.7% 43% -63.4%
20% -31.2% 43% -67.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 34% · top 2 50% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -50% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +3% · $-wt -50% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +23% → late -16% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.4 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$50 vs −$113 · ×0.44 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.33 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

7d coverage
Net worth$62
Realized−$523
Unrealized−$61
Win rate (resolved)43%
Wins / losses6 / 8
Est. fees paid−$22
Open positions6
Markets (closed)14 / 20
History coverage7d
Avg bet$66
Trades / day4.6
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit75%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 6 History 14 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Uruguay vs. Cabo Verde: Both Teams to Score Yes 37¢ 36¢ $52 $51 −$1 (-1%)
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $6 $6 −$0 (-6%)
IR Iran to score first vs. Belgium? Yes 18¢ $15 $3 −$12 (-81%)
Will Belgium vs. IR Iran end in a draw? No 34¢ $12 $1 −$11 (-90%)
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-21? Yes 21¢ $17 $1 −$16 (-93%)
Belgium vs. IR Iran: O/U 1.5 Over 36¢ $21 $0 −$21 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 6 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Ecuador vs. Curaçao: 1st Half O/U 0.5 Jun 21 $21 −$21 -100%
Ecuador vs. Curaçao: Both Teams to Score in First Half Jun 21 $12 −$12 -100%
Anthony Valencia: 1+ goals Jun 21 $20 −$20 -98%
Ecuador vs. Curaçao: Both Teams to Score Jun 21 $20 −$20 -98%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $66 +$101 +153%
Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire: O/U 12.5 Total Corners Jun 20 $30 +$24 +79%
Will Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire end in a draw? Jun 20 $72 +$39 +55%
Exact Score: Germany 0 - 1 Côte d'Ivoire? Jun 20 $5 −$5 -97%
Exact Score: Germany 2 - 0 Côte d'Ivoire? Jun 20 $6 −$6 -97%
Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: O/U 4.5 Jun 20 $7 −$7 -100%
Sweden vs. Tunisia: O/U 4.5 Jun 20 $813 −$813 -100%
Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: O/U 0.5 Jun 18 $61 +$50 +82%
Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: O/U 3.5 Jun 18 $10 +$40 +391%
England vs. Croatia: England O/U 1.5 Jun 17 $53 +$46 +86%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Uruguay vs. Cabo Verde: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 37¢ $53 1h
Will Belgium vs. IR Iran end in a draw? BUY No 34¢ $12 1h
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 21¢ $17 2h
IR Iran to score first vs. Belgium? BUY Yes 18¢ $6 2h
Belgium vs. IR Iran: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 36¢ $21 2h
IR Iran to score first vs. Belgium? BUY Yes 18¢ $10 2h
Ecuador vs. Curaçao: 1st Half O/U 0.5 BUY Over 43¢ $1 22h
Ecuador vs. Curaçao: 1st Half O/U 0.5 BUY Over 43¢ $21 22h
Ecuador vs. Curaçao: Both Teams to Score in First Half BUY Yes $1 22h
Ecuador vs. Curaçao: Both Teams to Score in First Half BUY Yes $1 22h
Ecuador vs. Curaçao: Both Teams to Score in First Half BUY Yes $9 22h
Ecuador vs. Curaçao: Both Teams to Score in First Half BUY Yes $0 22h
Ecuador vs. Curaçao: Both Teams to Score in First Half BUY Yes $1 22h
Anthony Valencia: 1+ goals BUY Yes 33¢ $10 22h
Anthony Valencia: 1+ goals BUY Yes 33¢ $10 22h
Ecuador vs. Curaçao: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 34¢ $20 22h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 13¢ $9 24h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 15¢ $11 24h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? SELL Yes 22¢ $28 24h
Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire: O/U 12.5 Total Corners BUY Under 55¢ $30 25h
Will Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire end in a draw? SELL Yes 45¢ $111 25h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 35¢ $46 26h
Will Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire end in a draw? BUY Yes 28¢ $72 26h
Exact Score: Germany 0 - 1 Côte d'Ivoire? BUY Yes $5 26h
Exact Score: Germany 2 - 0 Côte d'Ivoire? BUY Yes 11¢ $6 27h
Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: O/U 4.5 BUY Under 17¢ $7 3d
Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 20¢ $10 3d
Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: O/U 0.5 BUY Over 55¢ $61 3d
England vs. Croatia: England O/U 1.5 BUY Over 53¢ $53 4d
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $6 4d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $62.36 · official $62.53 (match) · 38 history records