Wallet analysis

2026-06-13T05:42:22+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

1F
0x1f44…a260
crypto · 56 markets active 2h ago
0.0score
−$52 -5%
TOTAL PnL · realized −$52 · open +$0
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP crypto specialist
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Net worth$5
Realized−$52
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)69%
Wins / losses38 / 17
Open positions1
Markets (closed)55 / 56
History coverage135d
Avg bet$20
Trades / day0.8
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit93%
Chart Positions 1 History 55 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$51
7 days−$51
14 days−$51
30 days−$51
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 17¢ 17¢ $5 $5 −$0 (-1%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 25, 12:55PM-1:00PM ET Up 23¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 26°C on June 12? Yes 11¢ 0¢ $10 $0 −$10 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 25, 1:05PM-1:10PM ET Down 50¢ 0¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
Ethereum Up or Down - February 24, 1:30PM-1:45PM ET Down 52¢ 0¢ $10 $0 −$10 (-100%)
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $62,000 and $64,000 on February 24? Yes 75¢ 0¢ $15 $0 −$15 (-100%)
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2.2T? Yes 49¢ 0¢ $24 $0 −$24 (-100%)
Will SpaceX’s opening share price on its first day of trading be between $100 and $150? Yes 33¢ 0¢ $40 $0 −$40 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 12:10AM-12:15AM ET Down 47¢ 0¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 13°C on June 12? Yes 22¢ 0¢ $7 $0 −$7 (-100%)
Ethereum Up or Down - February 24, 1:15PM-1:30PM ET Down 48¢ 0¢ $9 $0 −$9 (-100%)
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 16°C on February 24? Yes 3¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $68,000 and $70,000 on February 25? No 10¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 12:05AM-12:10AM ET Jun 13 $5 +$5 +105%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 12:10AM-12:15AM ET Jun 13 $5 −$5 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 12:00AM-12:05AM ET Jun 13 $10 −$5 -45%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 11:55PM-12:00AM ET Jun 13 $5 +$4 +86%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 11:50PM-11:55PM ET Jun 13 $5 +$4 +79%
Will the highest temperature in London be 21°C on June 12? Jun 12 $20 +$11 +56%
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026? Jun 12 $30 +$14 +48%
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2.2T? Jun 12 $25 −$24 -98%
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 13°C on June 12? Jun 12 $7 −$7 -96%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 26°C on June 12? Jun 12 $10 −$10 -96%
Will SpaceX’s opening share price on its first day of trading be betwe Jun 12 $41 −$40 -97%
Will US or Israel strike Iran first? Mar 11 $54 −$14 -26%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 25, 1:05PM-1:10PM ET Feb 25 $5 −$5 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 25, 12:55PM-1:00PM ET Feb 25 $2 −$2 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 25, 12:50PM-12:55PM ET Feb 25 $2 +$2 +86%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 25, 12:45PM-12:50PM ET Feb 25 $10 +$1 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 25, 12:40PM-12:45PM ET Feb 25 $5 +$2 +45%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 25, 12:35PM-12:40PM ET Feb 25 $5 +$2 +35%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 25, 12:15PM-12:20PM ET Feb 25 $10 +$1 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 25, 12:10PM-12:15PM ET Feb 25 $10 +$8 +82%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 25, 12:05PM-12:10PM ET Feb 25 $5 +$2 +40%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $68,000 and $70,000 on February 2 Feb 25 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 25, 11:20AM-11:25AM ET Feb 25 $14 +$2 +14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 25, 11:15AM-11:20AM ET Feb 25 $5 +$2 +48%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 25, 11:10AM-11:15AM ET Feb 25 $5 +$1 +28%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 25, 9:30AM-9:35AM ET Feb 25 $12 +$2 +17%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 25, 9:20AM-9:25AM ET Feb 25 $10 $0 +4%
Will Israel strike Gaza on February 21, 2026? Feb 25 $25 −$25 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 24, 2:30PM-2:45PM ET Feb 24 $5 +$1 +11%
Ethereum Up or Down - February 24, 2:15PM-2:30PM ET Feb 24 $10 +$2 +20%
Ethereum Up or Down - February 24, 2:00PM-2:15PM ET Feb 24 $11 +$9 +84%
Ethereum Up or Down - February 24, 1:30PM-1:45PM ET Feb 24 $10 −$10 -99%
Ethereum Up or Down - February 24, 1:15PM-1:30PM ET Feb 24 $10 −$9 -98%
Ethereum Up or Down - February 24, 1:00PM-1:15PM ET Feb 24 $5 +$1 +18%
Ethereum Up or Down - February 24, 12:45PM-1:00PM ET Feb 24 $10 +$2 +19%
Ethereum Up or Down - February 24, 12:30PM-12:45PM ET Feb 24 $4 +$5 +132%
XRP Up or Down - February 24, 12:30PM-12:45PM ET Feb 24 $6 +$1 +19%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 24, 12:15PM-12:30PM ET Feb 24 $12 +$3 +23%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $62,000 and $64,000 on February 2 Feb 24 $75 +$2 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 19, 2:15PM-2:20PM ET Feb 24 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 19, 2:10PM-2:15PM ET Feb 24 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 14°C on February 24? Feb 24 $35 +$4 +11%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $64,000 and $66,000 on February 2 Feb 24 $6 +$3 +45%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 16°C on February 24? Feb 24 $2 −$2 -100%
Will the US next strike Iran during the week of February 15-21, 2026 ( Feb 23 $58 +$3 +4%
Will the US next strike Iran on February 20, 2026 (ET)? Feb 21 $58 +$1 +1%
Will Donald Trump post 160-179 Truth Social posts from February 13 to Feb 20 $42 +$2 +5%
Will Elon Musk post 320-339 tweets from February 13 to February 20, 20 Feb 20 $70 +$2 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 19, 2:00PM-2:05PM ET Feb 19 $9 −$9 -100%
US strikes Iran by February 18, 2026? Feb 19 $58 +$1 +2%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
world 32% −$32
crypto 27% +$19
other 15% +$23
culture 10% +$4
weather 7% −$3
politics 4% +$2
finance 4% −$40
tech 2% −$24
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 12:10AM-12:15AM ET BUY Down 47¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 12:05AM-12:10AM ET BUY Down 47¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 12:00AM-12:05AM ET BUY Up 89¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 12:00AM-12:05AM ET BUY Down 50¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 11:55PM-12:00AM ET BUY Down 52¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 11:50PM-11:55PM ET BUY Up 54¢ $5 1h
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2.2T? BUY Yes 49¢ $25 28h
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 17¢ $5 28h
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026? BUY Yes 67¢ $30 28h
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 13°C on June 12? BUY Yes 22¢ $7 28h
Will the highest temperature in London be 21°C on June 12? BUY No 63¢ $20 28h
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 26°C on June 12? BUY Yes 11¢ $10 28h
Will SpaceX’s opening share price on its first day of trading be betwe BUY Yes 33¢ $41 28h
Will US or Israel strike Iran first? BUY Israel 68¢ $54 104d
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 25, 1:05PM-1:10PM ET BUY Down 50¢ $5 107d
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 25, 12:55PM-1:00PM ET BUY Up 23¢ $2 107d
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 25, 12:50PM-12:55PM ET SELL Down 43¢ $4 107d
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 25, 12:50PM-12:55PM ET BUY Down 23¢ $2 107d
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 25, 12:45PM-12:50PM ET SELL Up 59¢ $2 107d
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 25, 12:45PM-12:50PM ET SELL Up 59¢ $4 107d
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 25, 12:45PM-12:50PM ET SELL Up 53¢ $6 107d
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 25, 12:45PM-12:50PM ET BUY Up 50¢ $10 107d
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 25, 12:40PM-12:45PM ET SELL Up 75¢ $7 107d
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 25, 12:40PM-12:45PM ET BUY Up 51¢ $5 107d
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 25, 12:35PM-12:40PM ET SELL Up 70¢ $7 107d
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 25, 12:35PM-12:40PM ET BUY Up 51¢ $5 107d
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 25, 12:15PM-12:20PM ET SELL Up 56¢ $0 107d
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 25, 12:15PM-12:20PM ET SELL Up 56¢ $3 107d
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 25, 12:15PM-12:20PM ET SELL Up 56¢ $3 107d
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 25, 12:15PM-12:20PM ET SELL Up 56¢ $3 107d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +47%
net ROI/market (all)-15.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 11 -15.6% -23.6% 45% 45% -37.9%
≤30d 11 -15.6% -23.6% 45% 45% -37.9%
≤90d 11 -15.6% -23.6% 45% 45% -37.9%
all 55 -6.3% -15.2% 69% 47% -13.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover0.8 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -15.2% 47% -13.9%
10% -23.3% 29% -22.2%
15% -30.7% 24% -29.7%
20% -37.5% 15% -36.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $4.96 · official $4.96 (match) · 133 history records