Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T06:54:31+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

7.5
score
1F 0x1f44…ace3 weather 123 markets active 1h ago coverage 168d
COPY-WORTHYcopy this weather specialist
Total PnL +$6,361 (+24%) realized +$6,361 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +72% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +50% what you keep after slip
Net edge+50%after slip
Net WR59%break-even
Win rate80%99W / 24L
Whale WR94%big bets
Drawdown6%max
Avg bet$213per market
Trades / day3.7pace
Kalshi-fit80%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$142
7 days−$54
14 days−$20
30 days+$589
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
weather 79% +$5,392
other 21% +$794
crypto 0% −$3
world 0% $0
sports 0% −$2
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
worth copying (survives realistic slippage)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +59%
net ROI/market (all)+55.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 5 +37.5% +24.4% 60% 60% -15.3%
≤30d 21 +121.6% +100.5% 57% 52% +7.1%
≤90d 101 +85.8% +68.1% 81% 62% +10.8%
all 123 +72.2% +55.8% 80% 59% +10.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover3.7 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to20%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +55.8% 59% +10.6%
10% +40.9% 42% +0.0%
15% +27.3% 30% -9.7%
20% +14.8% 25% -18.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 10% · top 2 18% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +24% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
26% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +72% · $-wt +24% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 94% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early +76% → late +69% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
2.7 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$75 vs −$51 · ×1.47 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×6.05 per $1 lost it wins $6.05
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

168d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$6,361
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)80%
Wins / losses99 / 24
Whale WR (big bets)94%
Open positions0
Markets (closed)123 / 123
History coverage168d
Avg bet$213
Trades / day3.7
Drawdown6%
Kalshi-fit80%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 123 Trades
no open positions
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 29°C on June 18? Jun 18 $180 −$146 -81%
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 33°C or higher on June 18 Jun 17 $1 +$3 +317%
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 33°C or higher on June 16 Jun 16 $3 −$2 -76%
Will there be exactly 0 earthquakes of magnitude 6.5 or higher worldwi Jun 15 $514 +$70 +14%
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 31°C on June 13? Jun 13 $143 +$21 +14%
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 32°C or higher on June 9? Jun 09 $9 −$6 -67%
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 33°C on June 8? Jun 08 $251 +$31 +12%
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 33°C on June 5? Jun 05 $2 +$1 +40%
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 38°C on June 4? Jun 04 $221 +$22 +10%
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 40°C on June 4? Jun 04 $15 −$14 -95%
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 39°C or higher on June 3? Jun 03 $2 +$3 +163%
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 36°C on June 3? Jun 03 $5 +$10 +199%
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 37°C on June 2? Jun 02 $7 +$393 +5614%
Will Hong Kong have between 220-230mm of precipitation in May? Jun 01 $203 +$344 +169%
Will there be exactly 1 earthquake of magnitude 6.5 or higher worldwid May 31 $233 −$198 -85%
Will Hong Kong have 240mm or more of precipitation in May? May 31 $6 +$1 +21%
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 35°C on May 30? May 30 $21 +$72 +344%
Will Hong Kong have between 210-220mm of precipitation in May? May 29 $3 −$2 -52%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 31°C or higher on May 26? May 26 $10 −$10 -95%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 27°C on May 25? May 25 $4 −$4 -99%
Will the lowest temperature in Shanghai be 23°C on May 24? May 24 $0 $0 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 27°C on May 17? May 17 $123 +$98 +80%
Will there be exactly 5 earthquakes of magnitude 5.5 or higher worldwi May 16 $161 +$18 +11%
Will there be more than 9 earthquakes of magnitude 5.5 or higher world May 11 $211 +$10 +5%
Will Hong Kong have between 160-170mm of precipitation in April? May 04 $407 +$64 +16%
Will Hong Kong have between 140-150mm of precipitation in April? May 04 $158 +$13 +8%
Will Hong Kong have between 130-140mm of precipitation in April? May 04 $117 +$6 +5%
Will Hong Kong have between 150-160mm of precipitation in April? Apr 29 $354 −$352 -100%
Will there be exactly 6 earthquakes of magnitude 5.5 or higher worldwi Apr 28 $500 +$50 +10%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 20°C on April 20? Apr 20 $50 +$9 +18%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 22°C on April 19? Apr 19 $10 −$8 -78%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 21°C on April 18? Apr 18 $100 +$24 +24%
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 27°C on April 17? Apr 17 $200 +$30 +15%
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 29°C on April 17? Apr 17 $100 +$28 +28%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 20°C on April 17? Apr 17 $200 +$49 +25%
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 26°C or below on April 17 Apr 17 $23 +$15 +67%
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 25°C on April 15? Apr 15 $11 +$54 +495%
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 24°C on April 15? Apr 15 $22 +$5 +22%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 17°C on April 14? Apr 14 $250 +$180 +72%
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 22°C on April 13? Apr 14 $115 +$53 +46%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 18°C on April 13? Apr 14 $450 +$50 +11%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 16°C on April 13? Apr 13 $17 −$8 -50%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 17°C on April 13? Apr 13 $50 +$51 +102%
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 20°C on April 12? Apr 13 $218 +$255 +117%
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 28°C on April 12? Apr 12 $2 +$15 +728%
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 27°C on April 11? Apr 11 $426 +$97 +23%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 17°C on April 11? Apr 11 $400 +$117 +29%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 18°C on April 11? Apr 11 $243 +$33 +14%
Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 26°C on April 10? Apr 11 $300 +$104 +35%
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 29°C on April 10? Apr 10 $302 +$67 +22%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 29°C on June 18? SELL No 12¢ $34 1h
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 29°C on June 18? BUY No 60¢ $180 3h
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 33°C or higher on June 18 SELL Yes 2¢ $4 7h
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 33°C or higher on June 18 BUY Yes 1¢ $0 18h
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 33°C or higher on June 18 BUY Yes 1¢ $0 18h
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 33°C or higher on June 18 BUY Yes 1¢ $0 18h
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 33°C or higher on June 18 BUY Yes 1¢ $1 18h
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 33°C or higher on June 16 SELL Yes 1¢ $1 2d
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 33°C or higher on June 16 BUY Yes 3¢ $3 2d
Will there be exactly 0 earthquakes of magnitude 6.5 or higher worldwi BUY Yes 88¢ $514 3d
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 31°C on June 13? SELL Yes 65¢ $144 5d
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 31°C on June 13? SELL Yes 85¢ $20 5d
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 31°C on June 13? BUY Yes 56¢ $143 5d
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 32°C or higher on June 9? SELL Yes 2¢ $3 9d
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 32°C or higher on June 9? BUY Yes 6¢ $5 9d
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 32°C or higher on June 9? BUY Yes 6¢ $1 9d
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 32°C or higher on June 9? BUY Yes 6¢ $0 9d
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 32°C or higher on June 9? BUY Yes 6¢ $2 9d
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 32°C or higher on June 9? BUY Yes 6¢ $1 9d
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 33°C on June 8? BUY Yes 88¢ $251 10d
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 33°C on June 5? SELL Yes 1¢ $3 13d
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 33°C on June 5? BUY Yes 1¢ $2 13d
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 40°C on June 4? SELL Yes 0¢ $1 13d
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 38°C on June 4? BUY Yes 90¢ $221 13d
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 40°C on June 4? BUY Yes 2¢ $6 14d
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 40°C on June 4? BUY Yes 2¢ $6 14d
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 40°C on June 4? BUY Yes 2¢ $3 14d
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 39°C or higher on June 3? SELL Yes 5¢ $5 14d
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 36°C on June 3? SELL No 60¢ $1 14d
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 36°C on June 3? SELL No 60¢ $1 14d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 670 history records