Wallet analysis

2026-06-30T01:58:20+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

1.5
score
1F 0x1f45…97ce crypto 179 markets active 2h ago coverage 205d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$260 (-1%) realized −$186 · open −$74
Gross ROI / mkt -19% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -26% what you keep after slip
Net edge-26%after slip
Net WR32%break-even
Win rate37%64W / 109L
Whale WR67%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$120per market
Trades / day2.8pace
Fees−$6est.
Kalshi-fit81%portable
Net worth$657now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$37
7 days−$120
14 days−$202
30 days−$667
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 26% +$1,007
crypto 24% −$522
world 23% +$79
tech 10% −$556
finance 6% +$468
sports 5% −$324
politics 5% −$466
culture 2% −$41
economics 0% −$23
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +32%
net ROI/market (all)-26.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 9 -16.8% -24.7% 67% 67% -21.7%
≤30d 18 -46.8% -51.8% 39% 33% -43.2%
≤90d 45 -7.9% -16.7% 44% 42% -10.9%
all 173 -18.6% -26.4% 37% 32% -10.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover2.8 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -26.4% 32% -10.9%
10% -33.4% 26% -19.4%
15% -39.8% 20% -27.2%
20% -45.7% 17% -34.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 22% · top 2 36% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -2% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
12% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -19% · $-wt -2% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 67% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early -21% → late -16% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.3 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$86 vs −$53 · ×1.61 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×0.95 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

205d coverage
Net worth$657
Realized−$186
Unrealized−$74
Win rate (resolved)37%
Wins / losses64 / 109
Whale WR (big bets)67%
Est. fees paid−$6
Open positions6
Markets (closed)173 / 179
History coverage205d
Avg bet$120
Trades / day2.8
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit81%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 6 History 173 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? Yes 54¢ 38¢ $324 $231 −$93 (-29%)
Will Ethereum dip to $1,500 in June? No 80¢ 92¢ $160 $183 +$23 (+14%)
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 21¢ 20¢ $76 $74 −$2 (-3%)
US strike on Cuba by December 31? No 60¢ 60¢ $60 $60 −$0 (-1%)
Will Micron Technology, Inc. (MU) hit (LOW) $1,020 Week of June 29 2026? No 69¢ 68¢ $58 $58 −$0 (-1%)
Netanyahu out by end of 2026? No 53¢ 52¢ $53 $52 −$0 (-1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 5 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Ethereum dip to $1,400 in June? Jun 30 $90 +$10 +11%
Will Bitcoin dip to $58,000 June 22-28? Jun 29 $59 +$18 +31%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-27? Jun 28 $57 +$9 +16%
Will France win on 2026-06-26? Jun 26 $139 +$61 +44%
Paraguay vs. Australia: O/U 0.5 Jun 26 $133 −$133 -100%
Paraguay vs. Australia: O/U 1.5 Jun 26 $51 −$50 -98%
Japan vs. Sweden: O/U 0.5 Jun 26 $141 +$47 +33%
Ecuador vs. Germany: Germany O/U 0.5 Jun 25 $124 +$18 +14%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-25? Jun 25 $101 −$100 -99%
Mexico vs. Korea Republic: O/U 1.5 Jun 19 $83 −$82 -99%
Will Trump announce a tariff reduction on China? Jun 14 $40 −$40 -100%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 14 $320 −$222 -69%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 9? Jun 14 $50 −$50 -100%
Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador: Both Teams to Score Jun 14 $7 −$7 -98%
Will NVIDIA (NVDA) hit (HIGH) $240 in June? Jun 05 $58 −$44 -76%
Will Karen Bass & Spencer Pratt advance to the second round of the 202 Jun 05 $92 −$70 -76%
Will NVIDIA (NVDA) hit (HIGH) $256 in June? Jun 05 $60 −$46 -77%
Tesla and SpaceX merger officially announced by December 31? Jun 01 $191 +$12 +6%
Will Meta (META) close above $630 on May 28? May 29 $102 +$74 +72%
Will Amazon.com, Inc. (AMZN) hit (HIGH) $280 in May? May 28 $96 −$83 -87%
Will Meta Platforms, Inc. (META) hit (HIGH) $680 in May? May 28 $9 −$8 -87%
Will Bitcoin reach $80,000 May 25-31? May 27 $65 −$60 -93%
Will the Iran ceasefire continue through May 27? May 25 $32 +$156 +488%
Will the Iran ceasefire continue through May 25? May 25 $20 +$23 +117%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra May 25 $300 −$97 -32%
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $120 by end of June? May 22 $115 −$14 -12%
Will S&P 500 (SPY) hit (HIGH) $750 in May? May 22 $110 +$23 +21%
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $115 by end of June? May 22 $64 −$6 -10%
Will Alphabet Inc. (GOOGL) hit (HIGH) $410 in May? May 22 $214 −$199 -93%
Will NVIDIA (NVDA) hit (HIGH) $240 in May? May 22 $163 −$151 -92%
Will Apple (AAPL) hit (HIGH) $304 in May? May 21 $188 +$79 +42%
Will Bitcoin reach $85,000 in May? May 17 $354 −$222 -63%
Will NVIDIA (NVDA) hit (HIGH) $232 in May? May 14 $190 +$58 +30%
Will Solana reach $100 in May? May 13 $210 −$56 -27%
Will Bitcoin reach $90,000 by December 31, 2026? May 13 $1,586 −$58 -4%
Will NVIDIA (NVDA) hit (HIGH) $224 in May? May 13 $73 +$27 +37%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by May 31, 2026? May 09 $560 +$363 +65%
Will Bitcoin hit $60k or $80k first? May 04 $562 +$634 +113%
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $130 by end of June? Apr 16 $45 +$34 +76%
Will Bitcoin reach $75,000 in April? Apr 14 $68 +$37 +54%
Will the next Prime Minister of Hungary be Péter Magyar? Apr 08 $66 −$6 -9%
Arizona Wildcats vs. Michigan Wolverines Apr 05 $81 −$81 -100%
Spread: Celtics (-17.5) Apr 04 $58 +$23 +39%
S&P 500 breaks its losing streak this week? Apr 03 $69 +$95 +138%
Will NVIDIA reach $200 in March? Apr 02 $30 −$30 -100%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by end of 2026? Mar 30 $753 −$57 -8%
Will Amazon dip to $200 in March? Mar 30 $58 −$58 -100%
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $110 by end of March? Mar 25 $40 +$65 +161%
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $100 by end of March? Mar 25 $37 +$34 +92%
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $120 by end of March? Mar 25 $416 +$348 +84%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Micron Technology, Inc. (MU) hit (LOW) $1,020 Week of June 29 202 BUY No 69¢ $59 1h
Netanyahu out by end of 2026? BUY No 53¢ $53 1h
US strike on Cuba by December 31? BUY No 60¢ $60 1h
Will Ethereum dip to $1,400 in June? SELL No 99¢ $99 1h
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 21¢ $78 32h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-27? BUY Yes 86¢ $57 2d
Will Ethereum dip to $1,500 in June? BUY No 80¢ $162 2d
Will Bitcoin dip to $58,000 June 22-28? BUY No 75¢ $18 3d
Will Ethereum dip to $1,400 in June? BUY No 89¢ $90 3d
Will France win on 2026-06-26? BUY Yes 69¢ $139 3d
Will Bitcoin dip to $58,000 June 22-28? BUY No 75¢ $40 3d
Paraguay vs. Australia: O/U 0.5 BUY Over 78¢ $63 3d
Paraguay vs. Australia: O/U 0.5 BUY Over 78¢ $70 3d
Paraguay vs. Australia: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 50¢ $51 3d
Japan vs. Sweden: O/U 0.5 BUY Over 75¢ $141 4d
Ecuador vs. Germany: Germany O/U 0.5 BUY Over 87¢ $124 4d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? BUY Yes 54¢ $324 4d
Will Germany win on 2026-06-25? BUY Yes 61¢ $101 4d
Mexico vs. Korea Republic: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 72¢ $83 11d
Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 42¢ $7 15d
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 9? BUY Yes $50 24d
Will NVIDIA (NVDA) hit (HIGH) $240 in June? SELL Yes 14¢ $14 24d
Will Karen Bass & Spencer Pratt advance to the second round of the 202 SELL Yes 19¢ $22 24d
Will NVIDIA (NVDA) hit (HIGH) $256 in June? SELL Yes $14 24d
Will Karen Bass & Spencer Pratt advance to the second round of the 202 BUY Yes 80¢ $54 28d
Will Karen Bass & Spencer Pratt advance to the second round of the 202 BUY Yes 74¢ $38 28d
Will NVIDIA (NVDA) hit (HIGH) $256 in June? BUY Yes 20¢ $9 28d
Will NVIDIA (NVDA) hit (HIGH) $256 in June? BUY Yes 20¢ $21 28d
Will NVIDIA (NVDA) hit (HIGH) $240 in June? BUY Yes 55¢ $26 28d
Will NVIDIA (NVDA) hit (HIGH) $240 in June? BUY Yes 55¢ $32 28d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $657.32 · official $657.32 (match) · 739 history records