Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T16:22:32+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
1F 0x1f45…a495 crypto 198 markets active 2d ago coverage 530d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialistFading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL +$318 (+1%) realized +$317 · open +$1
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -2% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -11% what you keep after slip
Net edge-11%after slip
Net WR3%break-even
Win rate88%174W / 23L
Drawdown4%max
Avg bet$260per market
Trades / day0.5pace
Kalshi-fit97%portable
Net worth$440now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days+$4
14 days+$8
30 days+$16
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 98% +$309
other 1% −$1
politics 0% +$6
economics 0% $0
weather 0% −$1
culture 0% $0
sports 0% +$2
tech 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +3%
net ROI/market (all)-10.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 2 +0.5% -9.1% 100% 0% -9.1%
≤30d 10 -19.6% -27.3% 80% 0% -9.1%
≤90d 31 -15.5% -23.5% 81% 3% -8.9%
all 197 -1.5% -10.9% 88% 3% -9.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.5 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -10.9% 3% -9.0%
10% -19.4% 1% -17.7%
15% -27.2% 1% -25.6%
20% -34.4% 1% -32.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 19% · top 2 30% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
95% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -2% · $-wt +1% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +1% → late -4% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$2 vs −$2 · ×0.97 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×7.35 per $1 lost it wins $7.35
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

530d coverage
Net worth$440
Realized+$317
Unrealized+$1
Win rate (resolved)88%
Wins / losses174 / 23
Open positions1
Markets (closed)197 / 198
History coverage530d
Avg bet$260
Trades / day0.5
Drawdown4%
Kalshi-fit97%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 197 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $56,000 on June 17? Yes 100¢ 100¢ $439 $440 +$1 (+0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 6 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Ethereum dip to $1,300 June 8-14? Jun 15 $436 +$2 +1%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $60,000 on June 11? Jun 11 $435 +$2 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,900 on June 9? Jun 10 $434 +$1 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $70,000 on June 6? Jun 07 $432 +$1 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $72,000 on June 5? Jun 05 $432 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $78,000 on June 3? Jun 03 $430 +$1 +0%
Will Bitcoin reach $85,000 in May? Jun 01 $424 +$7 +2%
Will Apple be the largest company in the world by market cap on May 31 May 28 $0 $0 -100%
Will Bitcoin reach $100,000 in May? May 27 $423 +$1 +0%
Will the highest temperature in London be 22°C on May 22? May 22 $0 $0 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 17, 8PM ET May 18 $9 −$4 -48%
Will Elon Musk post 115-139 tweets from May 14 to May 16, 2026? May 16 $0 $0 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 15, 6AM ET May 15 $4 −$4 -100%
Will Bitcoin reach $88,000 May 4-10? May 11 $431 +$2 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,200 on May 5? May 06 $430 +$1 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $72,000 on May 2? May 04 $428 +$2 +1%
Will Bitcoin dip to $55,000 in April? May 01 $425 +$3 +1%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $82,000 and $84,000 on April 21? Apr 22 $424 +$1 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,700 on April 19? Apr 20 $424 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be less than $64,000 on April 16? Apr 17 $423 +$1 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 12, 7PM ET Apr 14 $360 +$40 +11%
Will the price of Bitcoin be less than $58,000 on April 10? Apr 11 $382 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $58,000 and $60,000 on April 7? Apr 08 $381 +$1 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $58,000 and $60,000 on April 5? Apr 06 $380 +$1 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $76,000 on April 3? Apr 04 $380 +$1 +0%
Will Bitcoin reach $80,000 in March? Apr 01 $379 +$1 +0%
Will Bitcoin reach $82,000 March 23-29? Mar 30 $378 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $60,000 on March 28? Mar 27 $378 $0 -0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $80,000 on March 26? Mar 27 $378 +$1 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be less than $64,000 on March 24? Mar 25 $377 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin reach $86,000 March 16-22? Mar 23 $374 +$4 +1%
Will Bitcoin reach $84,000 March 9-15? Mar 16 $373 +$1 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $58,000 on March 13? Mar 14 $372 +$1 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $80,000 on March 11? Mar 12 $371 +$1 +0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $65,000 on March 9? Mar 10 $371 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on March 9? Mar 10 $369 +$1 +0%
Will Bitcoin reach $80,000 March 2-8? Mar 09 $368 +$1 +0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $70,000 on March 5? Mar 06 $363 +$5 +1%
Will the price of Bitcoin be less than $58,000 on March 5? Mar 06 $363 +$1 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $56,000 on March 3? Mar 04 $362 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $74,000 on March 3? Mar 02 $374 −$11 -3%
Will Bitcoin reach $75,000 in February? Mar 02 $373 +$1 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $58,000 on February 28? Feb 27 $374 −$2 -0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $76,000 on February 27? Feb 27 $370 +$3 +1%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $74,000 on February 24? Feb 24 $370 +$1 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $60,000 on February 22? Feb 23 $369 +$1 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $76,000 on February 20? Feb 20 $368 +$1 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $74,000 on February 19? Feb 18 $136 +$1 +1%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $78,000 on February 17? Feb 17 $367 +$1 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $72,000 on February 14? Feb 13 $371 −$4 -1%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $56,000 on June 17? BUY Yes 100¢ $439 2d
Will Ethereum dip to $1,300 June 8-14? BUY No 99¢ $436 4d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $60,000 on June 11? SELL Yes 100¢ $437 6d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $60,000 on June 11? BUY Yes 99¢ $435 6d
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,900 on June 9? BUY No 100¢ $434 8d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $70,000 on June 6? BUY No 100¢ $432 12d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $72,000 on June 5? SELL No 100¢ $432 12d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $72,000 on June 5? BUY No 100¢ $432 13d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $78,000 on June 3? BUY No 100¢ $430 15d
Will Apple be the largest company in the world by market cap on May 31 BUY Yes 0¢ $0 19d
Will Bitcoin reach $85,000 in May? BUY No 98¢ $424 21d
Will Bitcoin reach $100,000 in May? SELL No 100¢ $424 21d
Will the highest temperature in London be 22°C on May 22? BUY Yes 0¢ $0 26d
Will Bitcoin reach $100,000 in May? BUY No 100¢ $423 28d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 17, 8PM ET SELL Up 1¢ $4 30d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 17, 8PM ET BUY Up 2¢ $9 30d
Will Elon Musk post 115-139 tweets from May 14 to May 16, 2026? BUY Yes 0¢ $0 32d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 15, 6AM ET BUY Down 5¢ $4 33d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 15, 6AM ET BUY Down 5¢ $0 33d
Will Bitcoin reach $88,000 May 4-10? BUY No 99¢ $431 40d
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,200 on May 5? BUY Yes 100¢ $430 43d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $72,000 on May 2? BUY Yes 99¢ $8 47d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $72,000 on May 2? BUY Yes 99¢ $420 47d
Will Bitcoin dip to $55,000 in April? BUY No 99¢ $425 56d
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $82,000 and $84,000 on April 21? BUY No 100¢ $424 58d
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,700 on April 19? BUY Yes 100¢ $424 61d
Will the price of Bitcoin be less than $64,000 on April 16? BUY No 100¢ $423 63d
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 12, 7PM ET BUY Down 90¢ $208 65d
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 12, 7PM ET BUY Down 90¢ $14 65d
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 12, 7PM ET BUY Down 90¢ $131 65d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $439.53 · official $439.53 (match) · 440 history records