Wallet analysis

2026-06-23T07:38:17+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
1F 0x1f45…2d71 crypto 52 markets active 0h ago coverage 11d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialistFresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$26 (+7%) realized +$26 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -14% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -25% what you keep after slip
Net edge-25%after slip
Net WR31%break-even
Win rate31%16W / 36L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$8per market
Trades / day7.1pace
Kalshi-fit94%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$63
7 days+$48
14 days+$10
30 days+$10
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 94% +$14
other 6% −$4
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +31%
net ROI/market (all)-22.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 27 -2.6% -11.9% 33% 33% +8.6%
≤30d 52 -14.1% -22.3% 31% 31% -7.2%
≤90d 52 -14.1% -22.3% 31% 31% -7.2%
all 52 -14.1% -22.3% 31% 31% -7.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover7.1 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -22.3% 31% -7.2%
10% -29.7% 29% -16.1%
15% -36.5% 29% -24.2%
20% -42.7% 29% -31.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 14% · top 2 25% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +3% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -14% · $-wt +3% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -29% → late +1% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$14 vs −$6 · ×2.35 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.05 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

11d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$26
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)31%
Wins / losses16 / 36
Open positions0
Markets (closed)52 / 52
History coverage11d
Avg bet$8
Trades / day7.1
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit94%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 52 Trades
no open positions (29 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 23, 3:15AM-3:30AM ET Jun 23 $10 −$9 -94%
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 23, 3:15AM-3:20AM ET Jun 23 $5 −$5 -94%
XRP Up or Down - June 23, 3:00AM-3:15AM ET Jun 23 $12 −$11 -95%
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 23, 2:45AM-3:00AM ET Jun 23 $5 −$5 -94%
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 23, 2:30AM-2:45AM ET Jun 23 $5 +$17 +347%
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 23, 1AM ET Jun 23 $10 +$20 +200%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 23, 12:00AM-12:15AM ET Jun 23 $11 −$10 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 8:00PM-12:00AM ET Jun 23 $10 −$10 -100%
XRP Up or Down - June 22, 11:15PM-11:30PM ET Jun 23 $10 −$9 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 11:10PM-11:15PM ET Jun 23 $3 −$3 -94%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 22, 3PM ET Jun 22 $3 −$3 -100%
Solana Up or Down - June 22, 3:15PM-3:30PM ET Jun 22 $22 +$30 +137%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 3:00PM-3:15PM ET Jun 22 $10 +$12 +125%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 2PM ET Jun 22 $15 +$25 +164%
XRP Up or Down - June 22, 2:00PM-2:05PM ET Jun 22 $5 −$5 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 22, 1:30PM-1:45PM ET Jun 22 $2 −$2 -100%
Solana Up or Down - June 22, 1:45PM-2:00PM ET Jun 22 $8 −$8 -94%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 22, 1:15PM-1:30PM ET Jun 22 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 1:30PM-1:35PM ET Jun 22 $5 −$5 -94%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 22, 1:00PM-1:15PM ET Jun 22 $5 −$5 -94%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 22, 12:30PM-12:45PM ET Jun 22 $9 −$9 -94%
XRP Up or Down - June 22, 11AM ET Jun 22 $22 +$23 +104%
Solana Up or Down - June 22, 11:00AM-11:15AM ET Jun 22 $20 +$26 +130%
Solana Up or Down - June 22, 10:45AM-11:00AM ET Jun 22 $6 −$6 -94%
Hyperliquid Up or Down - June 22, 10:45AM-11:00AM ET Jun 22 $4 +$9 +230%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 22, 10:30AM-10:45AM ET Jun 22 $5 +$15 +291%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 12:00PM-4:00PM ET Jun 19 $16 −$15 -94%
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 12, 12PM ET Jun 12 $9 −$9 -94%
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 12, 12:05PM-12:10PM ET Jun 12 $9 +$1 +6%
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 12, 12:00PM-12:05PM ET Jun 12 $2 −$2 -93%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 8:00AM-12:00PM ET Jun 12 $6 +$6 +98%
Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-12? Jun 12 $5 −$1 -10%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 12, 8:00AM-12:00PM ET Jun 12 $6 −$5 -79%
Solana Up or Down - June 12, 11:15AM-11:30AM ET Jun 12 $5 −$5 -95%
XRP Up or Down - June 12, 10:45AM-10:50AM ET Jun 12 $3 −$3 -94%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 12, 10:30AM-10:45AM ET Jun 12 $8 +$11 +134%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 12, 10AM ET Jun 12 $9 −$9 -94%
XRP Up or Down - June 12, 9:45AM-10:00AM ET Jun 12 $4 −$4 -94%
Solana Up or Down - June 12, 9:45AM-9:50AM ET Jun 12 $4 −$4 -94%
Solana Up or Down - June 12, 9:30AM-9:45AM ET Jun 12 $3 −$1 -24%
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 12, 9:15AM-9:30AM ET Jun 12 $5 +$9 +187%
XRP Up or Down - June 12, 9:20AM-9:25AM ET Jun 12 $4 −$4 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 9:00AM-9:15AM ET Jun 12 $3 +$7 +267%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 9:00AM-9:05AM ET Jun 12 $5 −$5 -95%
Solana Up or Down - June 12, 8:45AM-9:00AM ET Jun 12 $2 −$2 -94%
XRP Up or Down - June 12, 8:20AM-8:25AM ET Jun 12 $8 −$8 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 7AM ET Jun 12 $15 −$5 -31%
XRP Up or Down - June 12, 7:50AM-7:55AM ET Jun 12 $2 −$2 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 6:45AM-7:00AM ET Jun 12 $6 −$5 -94%
BNB Up or Down - June 12, 4AM ET Jun 12 $14 −$13 -94%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 23, 3:15AM-3:30AM ET BUY Down 18¢ $10 16m
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 23, 3:15AM-3:20AM ET BUY Down 17¢ $5 20m
XRP Up or Down - June 23, 3:00AM-3:15AM ET BUY Down 32¢ $12 35m
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 23, 2:45AM-3:00AM ET BUY Down 18¢ $5 50m
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 23, 2:30AM-2:45AM ET BUY Down 21¢ $5 1h
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 23, 1AM ET SELL Up 99¢ $30 1h
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 23, 1AM ET BUY Up 31¢ $10 2h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 23, 12:00AM-12:15AM ET BUY Down 26¢ $11 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 8:00PM-12:00AM ET BUY Down 35¢ $10 4h
XRP Up or Down - June 22, 11:15PM-11:30PM ET BUY Down 32¢ $10 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 11:10PM-11:15PM ET BUY Down 17¢ $3 4h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 22, 3PM ET BUY Down 22¢ $3 11h
Solana Up or Down - June 22, 3:15PM-3:30PM ET SELL Down 94¢ $29 12h
Solana Up or Down - June 22, 3:15PM-3:30PM ET SELL Down 75¢ $23 12h
Solana Up or Down - June 22, 3:15PM-3:30PM ET BUY Down 33¢ $22 12h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 3:00PM-3:15PM ET SELL Up 98¢ $23 12h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 3:00PM-3:15PM ET BUY Up 41¢ $10 12h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 2PM ET SELL Down 91¢ $40 12h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 2PM ET BUY Down 32¢ $15 13h
XRP Up or Down - June 22, 2:00PM-2:05PM ET BUY Down 35¢ $5 13h
Solana Up or Down - June 22, 1:45PM-2:00PM ET BUY Down 24¢ $8 13h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 22, 1:30PM-1:45PM ET BUY Down 8¢ $2 13h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 1:30PM-1:35PM ET BUY Up 28¢ $5 14h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 22, 1:15PM-1:30PM ET BUY Up 19¢ $10 14h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 22, 1:00PM-1:15PM ET BUY Down 25¢ $5 14h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 22, 12:30PM-12:45PM ET BUY Up 31¢ $9 15h
XRP Up or Down - June 22, 11AM ET SELL Down 90¢ $8 15h
XRP Up or Down - June 22, 11AM ET BUY Up 17¢ $5 15h
XRP Up or Down - June 22, 11AM ET SELL Down 89¢ $37 15h
XRP Up or Down - June 22, 11AM ET BUY Down 31¢ $17 16h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 87 history records