Wallet analysis

2026-06-21T16:27:49+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
1F 0x1f46…ef94 other 17 markets active 1h ago coverage 12d
TRAPdo not copy ⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL −$526 (-14%) realized −$365 · open −$161
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -43% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -49% what you keep after slip
Net edge-49%after slip
Net WR38%break-even
Win rate38%5W / 8L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$223per market
Trades / day1.7pace
Fees−$3est.
Kalshi-fit24%portable
Net worth$77now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$548
7 days−$553
14 days−$563
30 days−$563
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 88% −$869
crypto 9% +$258
sports 3% −$100
weather 0% −$12
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +38%
net ROI/market (all)-48.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 10 -40.4% -46.1% 40% 40% -23.7%
≤30d 13 -43.3% -48.7% 38% 38% -23.9%
≤90d 13 -43.3% -48.7% 38% 38% -23.9%
all 13 -43.3% -48.7% 38% 38% -23.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.7 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -48.7% 38% -23.9%
10% -53.6% 23% -31.2%
15% -58.1% 23% -37.8%
20% -62.2% 15% -43.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 48% · top 2 82% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -16% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -43% · $-wt -16% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -49% → late -38% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$153 vs −$166 · ×0.92 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.58 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

12d coverage
Net worth$77
Realized−$365
Unrealized−$161
Win rate (resolved)38%
Wins / losses5 / 8
Est. fees paid−$3
Open positions4
Markets (closed)13 / 17
History coverage12d
Avg bet$223
Trades / day1.7
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit24%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 4 History 13 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Exact Score: Spain 1 - 1 Saudi Arabia? Yes 4¢ 2¢ $100 $39 −$61 (-61%)
Exact Score: Spain 1 - 0 Saudi Arabia? Yes 8¢ 2¢ $100 $19 −$81 (-81%)
Exact Score: Spain 2 - 0 Saudi Arabia? Yes 14¢ 6¢ $31 $12 −$19 (-61%)
Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 3¢ 2¢ $7 $7 −$0 (-6%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 7 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 21 $205 +$32 +16%
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $200 −$199 -100%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $609 −$409 -67%
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $1 −$1 -98%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $352 +$258 +73%
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $610 −$600 -98%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $859 +$103 +12%
Will Scotland vs. Morocco end in a draw? Jun 19 $103 −$100 -98%
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? Jun 19 $594 +$368 +62%
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-18? Jun 19 $5 −$5 -98%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? Jun 13 $5 +$2 +42%
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 21°C on June 10? Jun 09 $11 −$11 -97%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 24°C or below on June 10? Jun 09 $1 −$1 -95%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Exact Score: Spain 2 - 0 Saudi Arabia? BUY Yes 14¢ $32 1h
Exact Score: Spain 1 - 1 Saudi Arabia? BUY Yes 4¢ $103 1h
Exact Score: Spain 1 - 0 Saudi Arabia? BUY Yes 8¢ $103 1h
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 20¢ $237 1h
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 84¢ $200 17h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? SELL Yes 21¢ $200 18h
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 18¢ $1 20h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 63¢ $609 20h
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 57¢ $352 26h
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 46¢ $610 37h
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 89¢ $859 40h
Will Scotland vs. Morocco end in a draw? BUY Yes 16¢ $103 41h
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 63¢ $1 45h
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 61¢ $593 47h
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 19¢ $5 2d
Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 3¢ $7 7d
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 21°C on June 10? BUY Yes 46¢ $11 11d
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 24°C or below on June 10? BUY Yes 0¢ $1 11d
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 16¢ $205 11d
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? BUY Yes 70¢ $5 11d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $76.97 · official $76.97 (match) · 36 history records