Wallet analysis

2026-06-28T15:22:58+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
1F 0x1f49…7ce8 other 77 markets active 2h ago coverage 263d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$4,387 (-26%) realized −$3,240 · open −$1,147
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -60% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -64% what you keep after slip
Net edge-64%after slip
Net WR13%break-even
Win rate16%11W / 56L
Whale WR22%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$219per market
Trades / day0.9pace
Fees−$7est.
Kalshi-fit55%portable
Net worth$1,257now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days$0
14 days$0
30 days−$1
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 56% −$2,455
sports 31% −$1,002
crypto 4% −$577
finance 3% −$543
world 3% −$408
tech 2% +$4
politics 0% −$61
culture 0% −$44
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +13%
net ROI/market (all)-64.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d no closed markets
≤30d 1 -100.0% -100.0% 0% 0% -100.0%
≤90d 12 -90.4% -91.3% 8% 8% -83.5%
all 67 -60.4% -64.1% 16% 13% -35.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.9 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -64.1% 13% -35.2%
10% -67.6% 10% -41.4%
15% -70.7% 9% -47.0%
20% -73.6% 6% -52.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 65% · top 2 77% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -82% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
18% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -60% · $-wt -28% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 22% (≥$500) big bets weaker
Persistence
early -47% → late -74% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
3.0 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$189 vs −$109 · ×1.72 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×0.34 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

263d coverage
Net worth$1,257
Realized−$3,240
Unrealized−$1,147
Win rate (resolved)16%
Wins / losses11 / 56
Whale WR (big bets)22%
Est. fees paid−$7
Open positions10
Markets (closed)67 / 77
History coverage263d
Avg bet$219
Trades / day0.9
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit55%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 10 History 67 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Ferrari be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? Yes 6¢ 10¢ $394 $620 +$227 (+58%)
Will Lewis Hamilton be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Yes 5¢ 10¢ $145 $318 +$173 (+119%)
Will George Russell be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Yes 56¢ 24¢ $382 $164 −$218 (-57%)
Will Charles Leclerc be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Yes 5¢ 2¢ $172 $79 −$93 (-54%)
Will 2026 be the fourth-hottest year on record? Yes 28¢ 3¢ $500 $58 −$442 (-88%)
Will McLaren be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? Yes 5¢ 2¢ $16 $7 −$9 (-55%)
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $115 in June? Yes 13¢ 0¢ $210 $4 −$206 (-98%)
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $120 in June? Yes 8¢ 0¢ $120 $2 −$118 (-98%)
Will Kimi Antonelli win the 2026 F1 Austrian Grand Prix? Yes 6¢ 0¢ $245 $2 −$243 (-99%)
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $110 in June? Yes 22¢ 0¢ $220 $2 −$218 (-99%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 1 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Charles Leclerc win the 2026 F1 Catalunya Grand Prix? Jun 14 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Kurt Kitayama win the 2026 Texas Children's Houston Open? Apr 14 $29 −$29 -100%
Los Angeles Angels vs. Chicago Cubs: O/U 6.5 Apr 14 $570 −$570 -100%
Will Min Woo Lee win the 2026 Texas Children's Houston Open? Apr 14 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Jake Knapp win the 2026 Texas Children's Houston Open? Apr 14 $2 −$2 -100%
Will Hikaru Nakamura win the 2026 FIDE Candidates Tournament? Apr 14 $90 −$90 -100%
Will Bitcoin dip to $25,000 in March? Apr 14 $3 −$3 -100%
Will Andrea Kimi Antonelli win the 2026 F1 Japanese Grand Prix? Apr 14 $798 −$798 -100%
Will George Russell win the 2026 F1 Japanese Grand Prix? Apr 14 $506 −$506 -100%
Will Fabiano Caruana win the 2026 FIDE Candidates Tournament? Apr 14 $23 −$23 -100%
Who will finish higher: Russell or Antonelli? Apr 14 $300 −$300 -100%
Will Praggnanandhaa R win the 2026 FIDE Candidates Tournament? Apr 14 $438 +$65 +15%
US x Iran ceasefire by March 31? Mar 26 $140 −$30 -21%
Will Charles Leclerc win the 2026 F1 Japanese Grand Prix? Mar 26 $221 +$1 +0%
Will Kimi Antonelli be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Mar 26 $684 −$6 -1%
Counter-Strike: Rune Eaters vs CSDIILIT (BO3) - CCT Europe Series #19 Mar 25 $106 −$106 -100%
Call of Duty: Miami Heretics vs Carolina Royal Ravens (BO5) - Call of Mar 22 $302 −$302 -100%
Call of Duty: Cloud9 New York vs Carolina Royal Ravens (BO5) - Call of Mar 21 $10 −$10 -100%
Call of Duty: Paris Gentle Mates vs FaZe Vegas (BO5) - Call of Duty Le Mar 21 $250 +$250 +100%
Counter-Strike: BIG vs CYBERSHOKE Esports (BO3) - CCT Europe Series #1 Mar 20 $204 +$84 +41%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $108,000 on October 22? Mar 19 $7 −$7 -100%
Will Bitcoin reach $95,000 by December 31, 2025? Mar 19 $100 −$100 -100%
Counter-Strike: aimclub vs EC BANGA (BO3) - ESL Challenger League Euro Mar 19 $135 −$28 -21%
Counter-Strike: megoshort vs BIG Academy (BO3) - ESL Challenger League Mar 19 $170 −$26 -15%
Will Charles Leclerc win the 2026 F1 Australian Grand Prix? Mar 18 $100 −$100 -100%
Will the Government shutdown end November 8-11? Mar 18 $61 −$61 -100%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $76,000 on March 5? Mar 18 $50 −$50 -100%
Iran leadership change by March 13? Mar 18 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Oscar Piastri win the 2025 F1 Abu Dhabi Grand Prix? Mar 18 $44 −$44 -100%
Will Lewis Hamilton win the 2026 F1 Chinese Grand Prix? Mar 18 $71 −$71 -100%
T20 World Cup: South Africa vs New Zealand Mar 18 $115 −$115 -100%
Will Lando Norris finish second in the 2025 Drivers Championship? Mar 18 $22 −$22 -100%
Will the Tampa Bay Buccaneers make the playoffs? Mar 18 $100 −$100 -100%
Will the Cincinnati Bengals win Super Bowl 2026? Mar 18 $480 −$480 -100%
Miami Open, Qualification: Zachary Svajda vs Colton Smith Mar 18 $2 −$2 -100%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on March 5? Mar 18 $10 −$10 -100%
Will the Buffalo Bills win Super Bowl 2026? Mar 18 $288 −$288 -100%
Will the Jacksonville Jaguars win Super Bowl 2026? Mar 18 $263 −$263 -100%
Will Lando Norris win the 2026 F1 Australian Grand Prix? Mar 18 $10 −$10 -100%
Will Charles Leclerc win the 2026 F1 Chinese Grand Prix? Mar 18 $3 −$3 -100%
Will Lando Norris finish on the podium at the 2025 F1 Qatar Grand Prix Mar 18 $20 −$20 -100%
Will Andrea Kimi Antonelli win the 2025 F1 Qatar Grand Prix? Mar 18 $12 −$12 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 5, 6:55AM-7:00AM ET Mar 18 $50 −$50 -100%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on March 6? Mar 18 $10 −$10 -100%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $76,000 on March 6? Mar 18 $10 −$10 -100%
Will Max Verstappen win the 2025 F1 Qatar Grand Prix? Mar 18 $500 −$500 -100%
Israel strikes Iran by January 31, 2026? Mar 18 $381 −$381 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down on October 23? Mar 18 $65 −$65 -100%
T20 World Cup: New Zealand vs South Africa (Game 1) Mar 18 $20 −$20 -100%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $74,000 on March 5? Mar 18 $30 −$30 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Kimi Antonelli win the 2026 F1 Austrian Grand Prix? BUY Yes 5¢ $10 1h
Will Kimi Antonelli win the 2026 F1 Austrian Grand Prix? BUY Yes 5¢ $1 1h
Will Kimi Antonelli win the 2026 F1 Austrian Grand Prix? BUY Yes 5¢ $1 1h
Will Kimi Antonelli win the 2026 F1 Austrian Grand Prix? BUY Yes 5¢ $1 1h
Will Kimi Antonelli win the 2026 F1 Austrian Grand Prix? BUY Yes 5¢ $15 1h
Will Kimi Antonelli win the 2026 F1 Austrian Grand Prix? BUY Yes 5¢ $1 1h
Will Kimi Antonelli win the 2026 F1 Austrian Grand Prix? BUY Yes 5¢ $75 1h
Will Kimi Antonelli win the 2026 F1 Austrian Grand Prix? BUY Yes 7¢ $72 1h
Will Kimi Antonelli win the 2026 F1 Austrian Grand Prix? BUY Yes 7¢ $57 1h
Will Kimi Antonelli win the 2026 F1 Austrian Grand Prix? BUY Yes 7¢ $14 1h
Will Ferrari be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? BUY Yes 7¢ $22 14d
Will Ferrari be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? BUY Yes 7¢ $90 14d
Will Ferrari be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? BUY Yes 6¢ $161 14d
Will Charles Leclerc win the 2026 F1 Catalunya Grand Prix? BUY Yes 1¢ $1 14d
Will Lewis Hamilton be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY Yes 4¢ $0 14d
Will Lewis Hamilton be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY Yes 4¢ $0 14d
Will Lewis Hamilton be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY Yes 4¢ $0 14d
Will Lewis Hamilton be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY Yes 4¢ $0 14d
Will Lewis Hamilton be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY Yes 4¢ $0 14d
Will Lewis Hamilton be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY Yes 4¢ $1 14d
Will Lewis Hamilton be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY Yes 4¢ $2 14d
Will Lewis Hamilton be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY Yes 4¢ $1 14d
Will Lewis Hamilton be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY Yes 5¢ $145 14d
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $120 in June? BUY Yes 8¢ $124 17d
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $110 in June? BUY Yes 22¢ $227 17d
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $115 in June? BUY Yes 13¢ $218 17d
Will Charles Leclerc be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY Yes 5¢ $102 22d
Will Charles Leclerc be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY Yes 5¢ $68 22d
Will Charles Leclerc be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY Yes 4¢ $7 22d
Will Ferrari be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? BUY Yes 9¢ $1 22d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $1,256.82 · official $1,257.19 (match) · 310 history records