Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T21:33:02+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
1F 0x1f4a…5827 crypto 596 markets active 6d ago coverage 16d ⚠
BOTnot copyable crypto specialist⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 16d only
✗ bot/MM pace (182 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$344 (-3%) realized −$344 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -28% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -44% what you keep after slip
Net edge-44%after slip
Net WR29%break-even
Win rate42%276W / 375L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$20per market
Trades / day181.8pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$79
7 days−$276
14 days−$381
30 days−$474
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 100% −$395
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (182 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +29%
net ROI/market (all)-34.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 120 -55.0% -59.3% 33% 13% -15.0%
≤30d 651 -27.5% -34.4% 42% 29% -13.0%
≤90d 651 -27.5% -34.4% 42% 29% -13.0%
all 651 -27.5% -34.4% 42% 29% -13.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover181.8 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -34.4% 29% -13.0%
10% ← realistic here -40.7% 23% -21.4%
15% -46.4% 15% -29.0%
20% -51.7% 12% -35.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 9% · top 2 13% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -4% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
32% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -28% · $-wt -4% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -22% → late -33% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
4.8 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$5 vs −$5 · ×1.02 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.75 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

16d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$344
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)42%
Wins / losses276 / 375
Open positions0
Markets (closed)651 / 596
History coverage16d ⚠
Avg bet$20
Trades / day181.8
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 651 Trades
no open positions (231 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 26, 11:25AM-11:30AM ET Jun 17 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 26, 8:15AM-8:20AM ET Jun 17 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 26, 9:55AM-10:00AM ET Jun 17 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 26, 9:40AM-9:45AM ET Jun 17 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 26, 9:00AM-9:05AM ET Jun 17 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 26, 10:20AM-10:25AM ET Jun 17 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 26, 7:50AM-7:55AM ET Jun 17 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 26, 8:30AM-8:35AM ET Jun 17 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 26, 9:25AM-9:30AM ET Jun 17 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 26, 11:30AM-11:35AM ET Jun 17 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 26, 8:25AM-8:30AM ET Jun 17 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 26, 10:15AM-10:20AM ET Jun 17 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 26, 11:20AM-11:25AM ET Jun 17 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 26, 7:15AM-7:20AM ET Jun 17 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 26, 8:40AM-8:45AM ET Jun 17 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 26, 9:05AM-9:10AM ET Jun 17 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 26, 10:10AM-10:15AM ET Jun 17 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 26, 7:35AM-7:40AM ET Jun 17 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 26, 10:05AM-10:10AM ET Jun 17 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 26, 8:55AM-9:00AM ET Jun 17 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 26, 8:35AM-8:40AM ET Jun 17 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 26, 11:05AM-11:10AM ET Jun 17 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 26, 11:10AM-11:15AM ET Jun 17 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 26, 10:40AM-10:45AM ET Jun 17 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 26, 11:15AM-11:20AM ET Jun 17 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 26, 10:25AM-10:30AM ET Jun 17 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 26, 7:05AM-7:10AM ET Jun 17 $4 −$4 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 26, 9:35AM-9:40AM ET Jun 17 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 26, 10:35AM-10:40AM ET Jun 17 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 26, 10:55AM-11:00AM ET Jun 17 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 26, 7:00AM-7:05AM ET Jun 17 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 26, 7:40AM-7:45AM ET Jun 17 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 26, 6:05AM-6:10AM ET Jun 17 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 26, 8:20AM-8:25AM ET Jun 17 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 26, 9:15AM-9:20AM ET Jun 17 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 26, 9:20AM-9:25AM ET Jun 17 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 26, 10:00AM-10:05AM ET Jun 17 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 26, 7:55AM-8:00AM ET Jun 17 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 26, 7:10AM-7:15AM ET Jun 17 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 26, 10:45AM-10:50AM ET Jun 17 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 26, 7:45AM-7:50AM ET Jun 17 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 26, 7:30AM-7:35AM ET Jun 17 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 26, 10:50AM-10:55AM ET Jun 17 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 26, 11:00AM-11:05AM ET Jun 17 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 26, 10:30AM-10:35AM ET Jun 17 $1 −$1 -100%
XRP Up or Down - May 26, 12:05PM-12:10PM ET Jun 17 $4 −$4 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 26, 9:50AM-9:55AM ET Jun 17 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 26, 8:10AM-8:15AM ET Jun 17 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 26, 9:10AM-9:15AM ET Jun 17 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 26, 9:45AM-9:50AM ET Jun 17 $1 −$1 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
XRP Up or Down - June 11, 9:30PM-9:35PM ET BUY Up 80¢ $4 5d
XRP Up or Down - June 11, 9:30PM-9:35PM ET BUY Up 80¢ $10 5d
XRP Up or Down - June 11, 9:30PM-9:35PM ET BUY Up 80¢ $12 5d
XRP Up or Down - June 11, 9:30PM-9:35PM ET BUY Up 80¢ $3 5d
XRP Up or Down - June 11, 9:30PM-9:35PM ET BUY Up 80¢ $26 5d
XRP Up or Down - June 11, 9:30PM-9:35PM ET BUY Up 80¢ $4 5d
XRP Up or Down - June 11, 9:30PM-9:35PM ET BUY Up 80¢ $13 5d
XRP Up or Down - June 11, 9:30PM-9:35PM ET BUY Up 80¢ $13 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 9:20PM-9:25PM ET BUY Up 9¢ $1 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 9:20PM-9:25PM ET BUY Up 10¢ $1 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 9:20PM-9:25PM ET BUY Up 21¢ $2 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 9:20PM-9:25PM ET BUY Up 17¢ $1 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 9:20PM-9:25PM ET BUY Up 25¢ $1 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 9:20PM-9:25PM ET BUY Up 28¢ $2 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 9:20PM-9:25PM ET BUY Up 31¢ $1 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 9:20PM-9:25PM ET BUY Up 51¢ $1 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 9:20PM-9:25PM ET BUY Up 62¢ $1 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 9:20PM-9:25PM ET BUY Up 34¢ $1 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 9:20PM-9:25PM ET BUY Up 46¢ $1 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 9:20PM-9:25PM ET BUY Up 44¢ $1 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 9:20PM-9:25PM ET BUY Up 39¢ $2 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 9:20PM-9:25PM ET BUY Up 37¢ $1 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 9:20PM-9:25PM ET BUY Up 52¢ $3 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 9:15PM-9:20PM ET BUY Up 1¢ $1 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 9:15PM-9:20PM ET BUY Up 19¢ $1 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 9:15PM-9:20PM ET BUY Up 27¢ $1 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 9:15PM-9:20PM ET BUY Up 54¢ $1 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 9:15PM-9:20PM ET BUY Up 43¢ $1 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 9:15PM-9:20PM ET BUY Up 46¢ $1 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 9:15PM-9:20PM ET BUY Up 32¢ $1 5d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 3500 history records