Wallet analysis

2026-06-23T21:15:52+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
1F 0x1f4c…ea41 weather 645 markets active 0h ago coverage 32d ⚠
BOTnot copyable weather specialist⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 31d only
✗ bot/MM pace (103 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$809 (-6%) realized −$777 · open −$32
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -13% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -33% what you keep after slip
Net edge-33%after slip
Net WR23%break-even
Win rate23%152W / 519L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$19per market
Trades / day103.3pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$1,090now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$1,299
7 days−$903
14 days−$234
30 days+$148
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
weather 100% +$1,396
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (103 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +23%
net ROI/market (all)-21.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 219 -49.4% -54.2% 10% 10% -39.3%
≤30d 639 -9.0% -17.7% 24% 24% -8.3%
≤90d 671 -12.9% -21.2% 23% 23% -12.4%
all 671 -12.9% -21.2% 23% 23% -12.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover103.3 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -21.2% 23% -12.4%
10% ← realistic here -28.8% 22% -20.8%
15% -35.6% 22% -28.4%
20% -41.9% 22% -35.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 2% · top 2 3% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -3% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -13% · $-wt -3% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -3% → late -23% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
5.1 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$48 vs −$15 · ×3.26 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×0.95 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

32d coverage
Net worth$1,090
Realized−$777
Unrealized−$32
Win rate (resolved)23%
Wins / losses152 / 519
Open positions51
Markets (closed)671 / 645
History coverage32d ⚠
Avg bet$19
Trades / day103.3
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 51 History 671 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 32°C on June 23? Yes 34¢ 100¢ $34 $100 +$66 (+194%)
Will the highest temperature in London be 35°C or below on June 24? Yes 19¢ 70¢ $19 $70 +$51 (+268%)
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 24°C on June 24? Yes 27¢ 46¢ $27 $46 +$18 (+69%)
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 33°C on June 24? Yes 41¢ 43¢ $41 $43 +$2 (+5%)
Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 22°C on June 24? Yes 37¢ 42¢ $37 $41 +$4 (+12%)
Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 23°C on June 23? Yes 32¢ 100¢ $13 $40 +$27 (+212%)
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 28°C on June 24? Yes 39¢ 40¢ $39 $40 +$0 (+1%)
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 31°C on June 24? Yes 35¢ 38¢ $35 $38 +$4 (+10%)
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 26°C on June 25? Yes 38¢ 38¢ $38 $38 −$0 (-1%)
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 25°C on June 24? Yes 35¢ 37¢ $35 $37 +$2 (+6%)
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 23°C on June 25? Yes 34¢ 36¢ $34 $36 +$2 (+6%)
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 32°C on June 24? Yes 14¢ 35¢ $14 $35 +$21 (+150%)
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 25°C on June 24? Yes 34¢ 34¢ $34 $34 +$0 (+1%)
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 26°C on June 25? Yes 33¢ 34¢ $33 $34 +$1 (+3%)
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 29°C on June 24? Yes 33¢ 30¢ $34 $31 −$3 (-9%)
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 32°C on June 25? Yes 31¢ 30¢ $31 $30 −$0 (-2%)
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 26°C on June 24? Yes 30¢ 30¢ $30 $30 −$0 (-1%)
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 25°C on June 25? Yes 30¢ 30¢ $30 $30 +$0 (+0%)
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 31°C on June 25? Yes 30¢ 28¢ $30 $28 −$2 (-5%)
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 30°C on June 24? Yes 33¢ 28¢ $33 $28 −$5 (-15%)
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 27°C on June 25? Yes 26¢ 26¢ $26 $26 −$0 (-2%)
Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 21°C on June 24? Yes 36¢ 22¢ $36 $22 −$13 (-38%)
Will the highest temperature in London be 29°C on June 25? Yes 23¢ 22¢ $23 $22 −$0 (-2%)
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 24°C on June 24? Yes 12¢ 20¢ $12 $20 +$8 (+67%)
Will the highest temperature in London be 36°C on June 24? Yes 33¢ 20¢ $33 $20 −$14 (-41%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 449 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 24°C on May 15? Jun 23 $16 −$16 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 18°C on May 12? Jun 23 $4 −$4 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 27°C on May 16? Jun 23 $22 −$22 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 21°C on May 6? Jun 23 $10 −$10 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 20°C on May 12? Jun 23 $20 −$20 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 32°C on May 14? Jun 23 $13 −$13 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 21°C on May 8? Jun 23 $8 −$8 -100%
Will the highest temperature in London be 14°C on May 14? Jun 23 $9 −$9 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 32°C on May 9? Jun 23 $12 −$12 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 30°C on May 12? Jun 23 $5 −$5 -100%
Will the highest temperature in London be 21°C on May 3? Jun 23 $2 −$2 -100%
Will the highest temperature in London be 17°C on May 5? Jun 23 $7 −$7 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 23°C on May 4? Jun 23 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 28°C on May 6? Jun 23 $10 −$10 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 31°C on May 17? Jun 23 $7 −$7 -100%
Will the highest temperature in London be 22°C on May 2? Jun 23 $5 −$5 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 19°C on May 2? Jun 23 $14 −$14 -100%
Will the highest temperature in London be 29°C on May 22? Jun 23 $3 −$3 -100%
Will the highest temperature in London be 15°C on May 6? Jun 23 $5 −$5 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 25°C on May 16? Jun 23 $9 −$9 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 25°C on May 14? Jun 23 $16 −$16 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 27°C on May 18? Jun 23 $28 −$28 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 20°C or higher on April 30? Jun 23 $16 −$16 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 27°C on April 29? Jun 23 $3 −$3 -100%
Will the highest temperature in London be 16°C on May 4? Jun 23 $7 −$7 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 30°C on May 22? Jun 23 $7 −$7 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 31°C on May 18? Jun 23 $7 −$7 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 32°C on May 23? Jun 23 $9 −$9 -100%
Will the highest temperature in London be 20°C on May 8? Jun 23 $6 −$6 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 23°C on May 10? Jun 23 $3 −$3 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 18°C on May 3? Jun 23 $3 −$3 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 25°C on May 17? Jun 23 $6 −$6 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 26°C on May 5? Jun 23 $8 −$8 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 27°C on May 7? Jun 23 $3 −$3 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 25°C on May 15? Jun 23 $9 −$9 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 27°C on May 17? Jun 23 $19 −$19 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 19°C on May 23? Jun 23 $9 −$9 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 27°C on May 10? Jun 23 $18 −$18 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 25°C on May 16? Jun 23 $35 −$35 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 27°C on May 6? Jun 23 $26 −$26 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 31°C on May 8? Jun 23 $12 −$12 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 27°C on May 13? Jun 23 $7 −$7 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 25°C on May 17? Jun 23 $11 −$11 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 24°C on May 4? Jun 23 $3 −$3 -100%
Will the highest temperature in London be 13°C on May 14? Jun 23 $8 −$8 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 28°C on May 14? Jun 23 $18 −$18 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 29°C or higher on May 15? Jun 23 $22 −$22 -100%
Will the highest temperature in London be 15°C on May 18? Jun 23 $10 −$10 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 24°C on May 3? Jun 23 $8 −$8 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 31°C on May 15? Jun 23 $9 −$9 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the highest temperature in London be 29°C on June 25? BUY Yes 23¢ $11 15m
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 26°C on June 25? BUY Yes 33¢ $0 21m
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 26°C on June 25? BUY Yes 33¢ $1 29m
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 33°C on June 25? BUY Yes 44¢ $2 29m
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 32°C on June 25? BUY Yes 31¢ $15 30m
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 21°C on June 25? BUY Yes 16¢ $0 36m
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 30°C on June 25? BUY Yes 18¢ $9 38m
Will the highest temperature in London be 31°C on June 25? BUY Yes 19¢ $18 38m
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 32°C on June 25? BUY Yes 34¢ $2 42m
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 26°C on June 25? BUY Yes 33¢ $2 42m
Will the highest temperature in London be 31°C on June 25? BUY Yes 19¢ $1 48m
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 30°C on June 25? BUY Yes 18¢ $3 54m
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 32°C on June 25? BUY Yes 34¢ $5 54m
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 32°C on June 25? BUY Yes 31¢ $1 1h
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 26°C on June 25? BUY Yes 38¢ $39 1h
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 25°C on June 25? BUY Yes 30¢ $31 1h
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 24°C on June 25? BUY Yes 10¢ $10 1h
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 32°C on June 25? BUY Yes 34¢ $5 1h
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 30°C on June 25? BUY Yes 18¢ $3 1h
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 31°C on June 25? BUY Yes 30¢ $4 1h
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 31°C on June 25? BUY Yes 30¢ $27 1h
Will the highest temperature in London be 29°C on June 25? BUY Yes 23¢ $2 1h
Will the highest temperature in London be 29°C on June 25? BUY Yes 23¢ $2 1h
Will the highest temperature in London be 29°C on June 25? BUY Yes 23¢ $5 1h
Will the highest temperature in London be 29°C on June 25? BUY Yes 23¢ $3 1h
Will the highest temperature in London be 29°C on June 25? BUY Yes 23¢ $1 1h
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 23°C on June 25? BUY Yes 34¢ $35 1h
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 22°C on June 25? BUY Yes 36¢ $9 1h
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 21°C on June 25? BUY Yes 16¢ $1 1h
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 21°C on June 25? BUY Yes 16¢ $8 1h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $1,089.84 · official $1,089.04 (match) · 3500 history records