Wallet analysis

2026-06-19T11:16:32+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

1.0
score
1F 0x1f53…bf94 politics 129 markets active 2h ago coverage 114d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$7 (+0%) realized +$7 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -1% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -11% what you keep after slip
Net edge-11%after slip
Net WR5%break-even
Win rate6%8W / 120L
Whale WR0%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$267per market
Trades / day2.7pace
Fees−$1est.
Kalshi-fit65%portable
Net worth$37now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days−$0
14 days−$1
30 days−$5
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 45% −$16
politics 40% −$18
sports 8% +$39
crypto 3% −$1
tech 2% −$1
world 1% −$1
finance 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +5%
net ROI/market (all)-10.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 3 -0.2% -9.7% 0% 0% -9.6%
≤30d 14 -0.1% -9.7% 0% 0% -9.6%
≤90d 116 -1.7% -11.1% 4% 3% -9.6%
all 128 -1.4% -10.8% 6% 5% -9.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover2.7 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -10.8% 5% -9.5%
10% -19.3% 5% -18.2%
15% -27.1% 4% -26.1%
20% -34.3% 4% -33.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 23% · top 2 43% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
12% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -1% · $-wt +0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 0% (≥$500) big bets weaker
Persistence
early -3% → late -0% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$15 vs −$1 · ×15.32 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.02 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

114d coverage
Net worth$37
Realized+$7
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)6%
Wins / losses8 / 120
Whale WR (big bets)0%
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions1
Markets (closed)128 / 129
History coverage114d
Avg bet$267
Trades / day2.7
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit65%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 128 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Wes Moore win the 2028 US Presidential Election? No 99¢ 99¢ $37 $37 −$0 (-0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 6 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the New York Jets win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 15 $23 $0 -0%
Will Eduardo Leite win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Jun 14 $331 $0 -0%
Will Vivek Ramaswamy win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 13 $47 $0 -0%
Will Egypt win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 11 $544 −$1 -0%
Will Zohran Mamdani win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 09 $247 $0 -0%
Will Elon Musk win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 07 $40 $0 -0%
Will South Korea win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 28 $550 −$1 -0%
Will Ecuador win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 26 $262 $0 -0%
Will Jared Polis win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 25 $214 $0 -0%
Will Kamala Harris win the California Governor Election in 2026? May 23 $266 $0 -0%
Will Brian Kemp win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 23 $201 $0 -0%
Will Ivanka Trump win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 22 $263 $0 -0%
Will Bosnia-Herzegovina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 21 $431 $0 -0%
Will Mark Cuban win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 20 $216 $0 -0%
Will Tulsi Gabbard win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 18 $469 $0 -0%
Will Nikki Haley win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 17 $284 $0 -0%
Will Uzbekistan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 17 $264 $0 -0%
Will the San Francisco Giants win the 2026 World Series? May 16 $223 $0 -0%
Will Élisabeth Borne win the 2027 French presidential election? May 15 $221 $0 -0%
Will Yaël Braun-Pivet win the 2027 French presidential election? May 15 $229 $0 -0%
Will Barack Obama win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 13 $416 −$1 -0%
Will Nicole Shanahan win the California Governor Election in 2026? May 13 $279 $0 -0%
Will Roy Barreras win the 2026 Colombian presidential election? May 12 $228 $0 -0%
Will United Kingdom win Eurovision 2026? May 11 $513 −$1 -0%
Will Hunter Biden win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 10 $201 $0 -0%
Will Michael Younger win the California Governor Election in 2026? May 09 $201 $0 -0%
Will Katie Britt win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 07 $197 $0 -0%
Will Franco Colapinto be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 06 $784 −$1 -0%
Will Hong Ihk-pyo win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election May 06 $642 −$1 -0%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $50 in April? May 06 $47 $0 +0%
Will Tim Walz win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 05 $392 −$1 -0%
Will Rick Caruso win the California Governor Election in 2026? May 04 $238 $0 -0%
Will Latvia win Eurovision 2026? May 03 $174 $0 -0%
Will Austria win Eurovision 2026? May 02 $649 −$1 -0%
Will François Ruffin win the 2027 French presidential election? May 01 $176 $0 -0%
Will Georgia win Eurovision 2026? May 01 $209 $0 -0%
Will JB Pritzker win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Apr 30 $242 −$1 -0%
Will Andy Beshear win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Apr 30 $217 −$1 -0%
Will Eric Trump win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Apr 27 $244 $0 -0%
Will John Fetterman win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 27 $203 $0 -0%
Will Luxembourg win Eurovision 2026? Apr 26 $449 $0 -0%
Will Kim Kardashian win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 26 $250 $0 -0%
Will Lance Stroll be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Apr 24 $434 $0 -0%
Will Oprah Winfrey win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 22 $221 $0 -0%
Will Esteban Ocon be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Apr 22 $222 $0 -0%
Will Tim Walz win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Apr 22 $291 $0 -0%
Will Audi be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? Apr 21 $273 $0 -0%
Will Thomas Massie win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Apr 20 $209 $0 -0%
Will Iran win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 20 $501 −$1 -0%
Will Ivory Coast win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 20 $219 $0 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Wes Moore win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $37 1h
Will the New York Jets win the 2027 NFL league championship? SELL No 99¢ $23 4d
Will the New York Jets win the 2027 NFL league championship? BUY No 99¢ $23 4d
Will Eduardo Leite win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? SELL No 100¢ $40 5d
Will Eduardo Leite win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? BUY No 100¢ $40 5d
Will Vivek Ramaswamy win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $47 5d
Will Vivek Ramaswamy win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $47 8d
Will Egypt win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $36 8d
Will Egypt win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $36 9d
Will Zohran Mamdani win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $38 9d
Will Zohran Mamdani win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $38 11d
Will Elon Musk win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $40 11d
Will Elon Musk win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $40 13d
Will South Korea win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $275 22d
Will South Korea win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $275 23d
Will Ecuador win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 99¢ $262 23d
Will Ecuador win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 99¢ $262 24d
Will Jared Polis win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $214 24d
Will Jared Polis win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $214 25d
Will Kamala Harris win the California Governor Election in 2026? SELL No 100¢ $266 26d
Will Kamala Harris win the California Governor Election in 2026? BUY No 100¢ $266 27d
Will Brian Kemp win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $201 27d
Will Brian Kemp win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $201 27d
Will Ivanka Trump win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $263 28d
Will Ivanka Trump win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $263 28d
Will Bosnia-Herzegovina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $196 28d
Will Bosnia-Herzegovina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $196 29d
Will Mark Cuban win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $216 29d
Will Mark Cuban win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $216 31d
Will Tulsi Gabbard win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $255 32d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $36.99 · official $36.99 (match) · 371 history records