Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T20:25:35+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

1.5
score
1F 0x1f56…b2c2 crypto 44 markets active 1h ago coverage 64d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$880 (-15%) realized −$976 · open +$96
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -15% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -23% what you keep after slip
Net edge-23%after slip
Net WR38%break-even
Win rate40%16W / 24L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$135per market
Trades / day1.3pace
Fees−$5est.
Kalshi-fit73%portable
Net worth$296now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$101
7 days−$13
14 days−$13
30 days−$13
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 77% −$899
other 18% +$110
sports 5% −$105
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +38%
net ROI/market (all)-22.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 11 -7.2% -16.0% 55% 45% -10.8%
≤30d 11 -7.2% -16.0% 55% 45% -10.8%
≤90d 40 -14.6% -22.7% 40% 38% -25.6%
all 40 -14.6% -22.7% 40% 38% -25.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.3 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -22.7% 38% -25.6%
10% -30.1% 38% -32.7%
15% -36.9% 38% -39.2%
20% -43.1% 35% -45.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 21% · top 2 33% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -18% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
6% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -15% · $-wt -18% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -1% → late -28% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.8 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$156 vs −$145 · ×1.07 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.72 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

64d coverage
Net worth$296
Realized−$976
Unrealized+$96
Win rate (resolved)40%
Wins / losses16 / 24
Est. fees paid−$5
Open positions3
Markets (closed)40 / 44
History coverage64d
Avg bet$135
Trades / day1.3
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit73%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 3 History 40 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will England win on 2026-06-17? Yes 58¢ 78¢ $100 $135 +$35 (+35%)
Harry Kane: 1+ goals Yes 45¢ 100¢ $50 $111 +$61 (+122%)
Will Panama win on 2026-06-17? Yes 30¢ 30¢ $50 $49 −$1 (-2%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 19 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Cristiano Ronaldo: 3+ goals Jun 17 $21 −$20 -97%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $101 +$46 +46%
Spread: Norway (-1.5) Jun 17 $107 +$72 +67%
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 16 $103 +$3 +3%
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $182 −$180 -99%
Spread: Spain (-1.5) Jun 15 $51 −$50 -98%
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $51 +$44 +86%
Will Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador end in a draw? Jun 14 $51 −$50 -98%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $102 +$107 +105%
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $101 −$100 -99%
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? Jun 13 $102 +$116 +114%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 16, 5:00AM-5:05AM ET May 16 $3 −$3 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 16, 4:55AM-5:00AM ET May 16 $104 −$100 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 16, 4:50AM-4:55AM ET May 16 $156 −$150 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 16, 4:45AM-4:50AM ET May 16 $25 +$30 +119%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 16, 4:40AM-4:45AM ET May 16 $104 +$105 +101%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 15, 11:10PM-11:15PM ET May 16 $464 −$464 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 15, 11:05PM-11:10PM ET May 16 $158 −$150 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 15, 11:00PM-11:05PM ET May 16 $181 −$181 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 15, 10:55PM-11:00PM ET May 16 $156 −$150 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 15, 9:20PM-9:25PM ET May 16 $156 +$223 +143%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 15, 10:50PM-10:55PM ET May 16 $26 −$25 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 15, 8:35PM-8:40PM ET May 16 $208 +$244 +118%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 15, 8:15PM-8:20PM ET May 16 $157 +$314 +200%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 15, 8:05PM-8:10PM ET May 16 $78 +$109 +140%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 15, 7:50PM-7:55PM ET May 15 $307 −$296 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 15, 7:40PM-7:45PM ET May 15 $192 −$184 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 15, 7:30PM-7:35PM ET May 15 $104 −$100 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 15, 7:25PM-7:30PM ET May 15 $105 −$100 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 15, 7:20PM-7:25PM ET May 15 $304 −$304 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 15, 7:15PM-7:20PM ET May 15 $183 +$516 +282%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 15, 7:10PM-7:15PM ET May 15 $209 −$200 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 15, 7:00PM-7:05PM ET May 15 $182 +$209 +115%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 15, 6:55PM-7:00PM ET May 15 $209 −$209 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 15, 6:45PM-6:50PM ET May 15 $207 +$172 +83%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 15, 6:40PM-6:45PM ET May 15 $205 −$197 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 15, 6:35PM-6:40PM ET May 15 $208 −$200 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 15, 6:25PM-6:30PM ET May 15 $207 +$189 +92%
Will Liverpool win the 2025–26 Champions League? Apr 14 $27 −$27 -100%
Will Atletico Madrid win the 2025–26 Champions League? Apr 14 $50 −$50 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Harry Kane: 1+ goals BUY Yes 45¢ $51 1h
Will England win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 58¢ $101 1h
Cristiano Ronaldo: 3+ goals BUY Yes 7¢ $21 3h
Will Panama win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 30¢ $51 10h
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? AND Will England win on 2026-06-17? BUY 46¢ $102 10h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 68¢ $101 21h
Spread: Norway (-1.5) BUY Norway 59¢ $107 22h
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 10¢ $105 22h
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 42¢ $81 2d
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 66¢ $101 2d
Spread: Spain (-1.5) BUY Spain 34¢ $51 2d
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 53¢ $51 2d
Will Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador end in a draw? BUY Yes 34¢ $51 2d
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 58¢ $101 3d
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? BUY No 48¢ $102 3d
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 10¢ $103 4d
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? BUY Yes 46¢ $102 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 16, 5:00AM-5:05AM ET BUY Down 34¢ $3 32d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 16, 4:55AM-5:00AM ET BUY Down 40¢ $26 32d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 16, 4:55AM-5:00AM ET BUY Down 40¢ $26 32d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 16, 4:55AM-5:00AM ET BUY Down 40¢ $26 32d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 16, 4:55AM-5:00AM ET BUY Down 41¢ $26 32d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 16, 4:50AM-4:55AM ET BUY Down 39¢ $156 32d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 16, 4:45AM-4:50AM ET BUY Down 44¢ $25 32d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 16, 4:40AM-4:45AM ET BUY Down 50¢ $26 32d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 16, 4:40AM-4:45AM ET BUY Down 46¢ $26 32d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 16, 4:40AM-4:45AM ET BUY Down 48¢ $26 32d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 16, 4:40AM-4:45AM ET BUY Down 48¢ $26 32d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 15, 11:10PM-11:15PM ET BUY Down 49¢ $155 32d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 15, 11:10PM-11:15PM ET BUY Down 49¢ $155 32d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $295.57 · official $293.84 (match) · 105 history records